Weather Forecasting

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Overview

Weather forecasting estimates how atmospheric conditions will evolve to support decisions ranging from daily planning to severe-weather warnings. Numerical weather prediction solves physical equations, while machine-learning approaches use transformers, graph networks, state-space models, and generative methods trained on reanalysis, satellite, radar, or station observations; data assimilation combines observations with model states. Current work also develops probabilistic ensembles, short-range radar nowcasts, regional downscaling, and forecasts for events such as tropical cyclones and heavy precipitation. A central challenge is producing reliable long-range and extreme-event forecasts while preserving physical consistency, representing local detail, and validating performance against real observations rather than reanalysis alone.

Latest papers

CardsList

178 papers34 papers in the last four weeks, up 55% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

  1. Causal-prior-constrained deep learning for rapid-intensification warning of western North Pacific tropical cyclones

    Oct 29, 2026Xinrui Li, Yijun Jin, Yifan Dong +1Tropical Cyclone Intensity ForecastingWeather Forecasting

    Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China · School of Mathematical Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China

  2. Operator-Aware Posterior Sampling for Multivariate Weather Downscaling

    Oct 29, 2026Carlo Saccardi, Rudolf Saathof, Geethu Joseph +1Climate DownscalingDiffusion Posterior Sampling

    Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands

  3. Scale-aware and spatially-localised optimisation of kilometre-scale MLWP models

    Oct 27, 2026James Chappell, Sophie Luise Arana, Jack Bowyer +15Weather ForecastingSpatiotemporal Forecasting

    Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom · The Alan Turing Institute, London, United Kingdom

  4. Batched NN 4D-Var: a performant hybrid model framework for the Integrated Forecasting System

    Oct 23, 2026Alban Farchi, Marcin Chrust, Massimo Bonavita +3Weather ForecastingData Assimilation

    ECMWF Bonn, Germany · ECMWF Reading, United Kingdom · CEREA, ENPC, EDF R&D Institut Polytechnique de Paris Île–de–France, France

  5. Tropical Cyclone Attributes in Sparse Autoencoder Features of an AI Weather Model

    Oct 20, 2026Jiapei Liu, Ruidong Li, Ting Sun +1Representation ProbingWeather Forecasting

    State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China · Department of Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK

  6. GraphCast-Mamba: Learning Non-Markovian Corrections for Weather Forecasting

    Oct 20, 2026Ilya Vilkoviskiy, Liang-Hong Mo, Suozhi Huang +1Weather ForecastingTime Series Forecasting

    Department of Physics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA · École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland +2

  7. Physics-anchored residual quantum neural networks for cloud-cover parameterization

    Oct 19, 2026Zhuo Wang, Ce Yu, Bin YangQuantum Neural NetworksQuantum Machine Learning

    Tianjin University

  8. Zephyrus-R1: Agentic Reinforcement Learning for Weather Reporting

    Oct 19, 2026Fengfei Yu, Marshall Fisher, Isadora White +13RL for VLMsReinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards

    University of California, San Diego

  9. Beyond the record: evaluating probabilistic AI weather forecasts deep in the tail

    Oct 18, 2026Bastiaan Van Velthoven, Cas Decancq, Diego G. Miralles +2Weather ForecastingProbabilistic Forecasting

  10. UtoMe: Observation-Uncertainty-Guided Token Merging for Weather Foundation Models

    Oct 18, 2026Yunbei Zhang, Janet Wang, Xi Xiao +2Token MergingWeather Forecasting

    Tulane University · Oak Ridge National Laboratory

  11. Can AI Forecast the Extremes? Evaluating Probabilistic Weather Models on Tropical Cyclones

    Oct 15, 2026Nathan Chalumeau, Xavier Renard, Remi Meynadier +3Tropical Cyclone Intensity ForecastingWeather Forecasting

    INRIA, Paris, France · AXA, Paris, France · Sorbonne Université, CNRS, LIP6, F-75005 Paris, France +1

  12. DIAL: Dynamic and Informed Adjustment of the Native Stochastic Law for Reliable Weather Ensembles

    Oct 15, 2026Yucheng Wang, Haonan Guo, Tianhao Zhao +4Weather ForecastingProbabilistic Forecasting

    Wuhan University · Zhongguancun Academy

  13. Forecast lead time and the timing of crew deployment for weather-driven power outages using AI weather models

    Oct 14, 2026Mohammad Kian Golkar, Luciano Alves de Oliveira, Mohamad AlipourDisaster ResponseWeather Forecasting

    Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA · Department of Civil Engineering, The Grainger College of Engineering, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61821, USA

  14. Mesh-Free Convolution: Learned Spectral Attenuation and Transport

    Oct 11, 2026Niloufar Zakariaei, Manav Manav, Eldad HaberPDE Operator LearningSpectral Methods

    University of British Columbia · Computational Geoscience Inc.

  15. WeatherBridge: Forecast-Aware Multi-Source Input Adaptation for Pretrained Weather Forecasting Models

    Oct 10, 2026Mutian Xi, Xinyu Su, Xiaohui Zhong +1Weather ForecastingMulti-Source Domain Adaptation

    Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Incubation Institute, Fudan University · Shanghai Academy of AI for Science · FuXi Intelligent Computing Technology Co., Ltd.

  16. Diffusion Precipitation Generation with Medium-range Weather Forecasting

    Oct 9, 2026Guowen Li, Yang Liu, Mengxuan Chen +11Precipitation ForecastingWeather Forecasting

    Tsinghua University · The Chinese University of Hong Kong · The Hong Kong University of S & T +5

  17. Learning Kilometer-Scale Weather Prediction with Global-Regional Alignment

    Oct 8, 2026Guowen Li, Yang Liu, Yujie Wang +5Weather ForecastingRepresentation Alignment

    Tsinghua University · The Chinese University of Hong Kong · Sun Yat-Sen University +1

  18. WxFM-XL: Adapting Univariate Foundation Models to Multi-Station Weather Forecasting

    Oct 7, 2026Xiao Wang, Changjian Chen, Zhuo Tang +3Weather ForecastingMultivariate Time Series Forecasting

  19. Learning joint probabilistic weather forecasts from station observations alone

    Oct 7, 2026Chaeyeon Yi, Yun Am SeoWeather ForecastingProbabilistic Forecasting

    Research Center for Atmospheric Environment, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin 17035, Republic of Korea · NAVI Hyper-Tropicalization Research Institute, Jeju National University, Jeju 63243, Republic of Korea · Department of Data Science, Jeju National University, Jeju 63243, Republic of Korea

  20. Artificial intelligence pathways from weather to climate

    Oct 7, 2026Tom Beucler, J. David Neelin, Hui Su +10Climate EmulationClimate Modeling

    University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland. · University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA. · Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong SAR, China. +6

  21. Tucker Bottleneck Attention for Multi-Dimensional Sequence Modeling

    Oct 6, 2026Ryan Solgi, Parsa Madinei, Zheng ZhangAttention MechanismsLow-Rank Attention

    University of California-Santa Barbara Santa Barbara, CA, USA

  22. Mechanistic Interpretability of Atmospheric Rivers in GraphCast

    Oct 6, 2026Madelyn Mathai, Timothy B. Higgins, Kevin M. Grise +2Mechanistic InterpretabilityWeather Forecasting

    University of Virginia

  23. WaveGSSM: Graph Wave State Space Models for Propagating Spatio-Temporal Patterns

    Oct 5, 2026Junyou Zhu, Fenying Cai, Ping Xiong +5Spatiotemporal ForecastingState Space Models

    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany · Machine Learning Group, Technical University of Berlin, Germany · Department of Computer Science, University of Illinois at Chicago, USA +2

  24. Xaurora: Generative Weather Forecasting with Denoising Stochastic Interpolants from a Foundation Model Prior

    Oct 5, 2026Eliot Walt, Miltiadis Kofinas, Nikolaj Mücke +2Probabilistic ForecastingStochastic Interpolants

    Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam · University of Amsterdam · Delft University of Technology +1

  25. FlexCast: Adaptive Weather Forecasting from Arbitrary Field Sets

    Oct 4, 2026Yuang Zhang, Chen Hui, Weisi Lin +4Weather Forecasting

    Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology · Nanyang Technological University · Harbin Institute of Technology +1

  26. S3^3N: A Spherical Spiral Scanning Network for Weather Forecasting

    Oct 3, 2026Fan Yan, Chen Hui, Weisi Lin +4Weather ForecastingSpatiotemporal Forecasting

    Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology · Nanyang Technological University · Harbin Institute of Technology +2

  27. SDECast: Probabilistic Weather Forecasting in Continuous Time with Neural SDEs

    Oct 2, 2026Maria Marchenko, Martin Andrae, Fredrik Lindsten +1Weather ForecastingProbabilistic Forecasting

    Linköping University, Sweden

  28. S2S-JEPA: Predicting the Predictable at Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Timescales

    Oct 2, 2026Chenyu Dong, Gianmarco MengaldoWeather ForecastingSpatiotemporal Forecasting

    Department of Mechanical Engineering, College of Design and Engineering, National University of Singapore, 9 Engineering Drive 1, 117575, Singapore.

  29. Post-Training Quantization of Autoregressive Weather Models

    Oct 1, 2026Ananyo Bhattacharya, Swastik Bhattacharya, Christiane JablonowskiPost-Training QuantizationNeural Network Quantization

    University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, USA · University of Texas at Dallas, Dallas, USA

  30. Varda-single-1.0: deterministic data-driven weather forecasting at 1 km resolution over Switzerland's complex topography

    Oct 1, 2026Alberto Pennino, Francesco Zanetta, Michele Cattaneo +28Weather Forecasting

    Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss · Swiss Data Science Center (SDSC), ETH Zürich · Center for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM), ETH Zürich +4