Weather Forecasting

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18 papers in the last four weeks, up 64% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

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  1. WxFM-XL: Adapting Univariate Foundation Models to Multi-Station Weather Forecasting

    Oct 7, 2026Xiao Wang, Changjian Chen, Zhuo Tang +3Weather ForecastingMultivariate Time Series Forecasting

  2. Learning joint probabilistic weather forecasts from station observations alone

    Oct 7, 2026Chaeyeon Yi, Yun Am SeoWeather ForecastingProbabilistic Forecasting

    Research Center for Atmospheric Environment, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin 17035, Republic of Korea · NAVI Hyper-Tropicalization Research Institute, Jeju National University, Jeju 63243, Republic of Korea · Department of Data Science, Jeju National University, Jeju 63243, Republic of Korea

  3. Artificial intelligence pathways from weather to climate

    Oct 7, 2026Tom Beucler, J. David Neelin, Hui Su +10Climate ModelingWeather Forecasting

    University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland. · University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA. · Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong SAR, China. +6

  4. Tucker Bottleneck Attention for Multi-Dimensional Sequence Modeling

    Oct 6, 2026Ryan Solgi, Parsa Madinei, Zheng ZhangAttention MechanismsLow-Rank Attention

    University of California-Santa Barbara Santa Barbara, CA, USA

  5. Mechanistic Interpretability of Atmospheric Rivers in GraphCast

    Oct 6, 2026Madelyn Mathai, Timothy B. Higgins, Kevin M. Grise +2Mechanistic InterpretabilityWeather Forecasting

    University of Virginia

  6. WaveGSSM: Graph Wave State Space Models for Propagating Spatio-Temporal Patterns

    Oct 5, 2026Junyou Zhu, Fenying Cai, Ping Xiong +5Spatiotemporal ForecastingState Space Models

    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany · Machine Learning Group, Technical University of Berlin, Germany · Department of Computer Science, University of Illinois at Chicago, USA +2

  7. Xaurora: Generative Weather Forecasting with Denoising Stochastic Interpolants from a Foundation Model Prior

    Oct 5, 2026Eliot Walt, Miltiadis Kofinas, Nikolaj Mücke +2Probabilistic ForecastingStochastic Interpolants

    Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam · University of Amsterdam · Delft University of Technology +1

  8. FlexCast: Adaptive Weather Forecasting from Arbitrary Field Sets

    Oct 4, 2026Yuang Zhang, Chen Hui, Weisi Lin +4Weather Forecasting

    Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology · Nanyang Technological University · Harbin Institute of Technology +1

  9. Varda-single-1.0: deterministic data-driven weather forecasting at 1 km resolution over Switzerland's complex topography

    Oct 1, 2026Alberto Pennino, Francesco Zanetta, Michele Cattaneo +28Weather Forecasting

    Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss · Swiss Data Science Center (SDSC), ETH Zürich · Center for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM), ETH Zürich +4

  10. Less is more: error-distance scaling relation for data-efficient kilometer-scale downscaling of extreme heat

    Sep 30, 2026Ahmed Marey, Henry Lu, Abhishek Gaur +6Spatial GeneralizationScaling Laws

    Centre for Zero Energy Building Studies, Department of Building, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Concordia University, Montreal, H3G 1M8 Canada · Building and Climate Interface, Construction Research Centre, National Research Council Canada, Ottawa, ON, K1A 0R6, Canada · Department of Architecture, School of Sciences and Engineering, The American University in Cairo, New Cairo 11835, Egypt +3

  11. STCFormer: Adaptive Spatio-Temporal Modeling with Dynamic Cluster Transformer for Station-based Weather Forecasting

    Sep 30, 2026Rongwen Li, Haixin Xie, Mingyang Wang +5Multivariate Time Series ForecastingClustering

    Hunan University · China Meteorological Administration · Hunan Provincial Meteorological Bureau

  12. M2^2Weather: A Benchmark for Joint Multi-Station and Multi-Variable Weather Forecasting

    Sep 30, 2026Rongwen Li, Xiao Wang, Mingyang Wang +4Multivariate Time Series ForecastingForecasting Benchmarks

    Hunan University · China Meteorological Administration

  13. Proper Scoring Rule-based Diffusion for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting

    Sep 29, 2026Joonhyeong Park, Giung Nam, Hyungi Lee +3Probabilistic ForecastingProper Scoring Rules

    KAIST · Kookmin University · New York University

  14. Methodological Changes to the Attention ResUNet Hourly Precipitation Postprocessor

    Sep 29, 2026Thomas M. HamillPrecipitation ForecastingWeather Forecasting

    The Weather Company, Atlanta, Georgia

  15. Graph-Based Learning for Multi-Horizon Martian Atmospheric Forecasting

    Sep 28, 2026Gary Myler, James Holmes, Manish Patel +1Spatiotemporal ForecastingWeather Forecasting

    The Open University, UK.

  16. Evaluating Dynamical Fidelity through Predictive Structure in Physical Representations

    Sep 28, 2026Oskar Bohn Lassen, Joao Paulo de Souza Boger, Simon Driscoll +4Spatiotemporal ForecastingWeather Forecasting

    Department of Technology, Management, and Economics Technical University of Denmark · Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics University of Cambridge · Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of Exeter

  17. WeatherDiagFlow: Evidence-Grounded Radar Nowcasting with Diagnostic Flow Refinement

    Sep 24, 2026Chunlei Shi, Yufeng Zhu, Yixiao Liang +4Precipitation NowcastingWeather Forecasting

    Department of Automation, Southeast University, Nanjing, China · Beijing Fengyun Meteorological Science and Technology Development Co., Ltd., Beijing, China · State Key Laboratory of Virtual Reality Technology and Systems, Beihang University, Beijing, China +1

  18. West-WRF AI 2-km: High-Resolution Prediction of Integrated Vapor Transport and Precipitation

    Sep 22, 2026Nazak Rouzegari, Vesta Afzali Gorooh, Agniv Sengupta +6Precipitation ForecastingWeather Forecasting

    Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS), The Henry Samueli School of Engineering, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, USA · Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, USA

  19. FAST-ML: A Hybrid Physics-Machine Learning Framework for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting

    Sep 22, 2026Shijie Xiao, Jonathan Lin, Thomas Ehrmann +1Probabilistic ForecastingPhysics-Informed ML

    School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA · School of Interactive Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA · Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA +1

  20. Recursive Quantum Long Short-Term Memory for Stable Short-Horizon Temperature Forecasting

    Sep 17, 2026Mu-En Lee, Yen-Ku Liu, Samuel Yen-Chi Chen +1Time Series ForecastingQuantum Machine Learning

    University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada · National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu, Taiwan · Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY, USA +1

  21. Every Fixed Metric Has a Blind Spot: A Learned Atmospheric Critic for Scoring Forecast Realism

    Sep 16, 2026Younes Elberkennou, Dmitri Demler, Thierry Meier +3Weather Forecasting

    ETH Zürich, Switzerland · ETH AI Center, ETH Zürich, Switzerland

  22. 4D Parallelism Unlocks Exascale Bayesian Neural Networks for High-Fidelity Atmospheric Modeling

    Sep 14, 2026Deifilia Kieckhefen, Juan Pedro Gutiérrez Hermosillo Muriedas, Lars Helge Heyen +12Bayesian Neural NetworksUncertainty Quantification

    Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany · Forschungszentrum Jülich, Germany · CSC – IT Center for Science Ltd., Finnland +1

  23. Agent-Based ML-LLM Fusion with Self-Optimizing Prompts for Plateau Weather Alerts

    Sep 9, 2026Shuai Yan, Yang Xu, Shan HePrompt OptimizationWeather Forecasting

    Chengdu Jincheng College College of Computer and Software Chengdu, Sichuan, China

  24. Stochastically Perturbed Weights: Ensembles from Deterministic Machine-Learning Weather Models

    Sep 8, 2026Simon Adamov, Oliver Fuhrer, Reto Knutti +1Uncertainty QuantificationEnsemble Learning

    Federal Office for Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland · Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science (IAC), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland · Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom

  25. Statistical versus machine learning-based spatial interpolation of post-processed ensemble weather forecasts

    Sep 7, 2026Mária LakatosEnsemble LearningProbabilistic Forecasting

    Faculty of Informatics, University of Debrecen, Hungary

  26. From Nowcasting to Forecasting: Adapting a Reanalysis-Trained

    Sep 3, 2026Mikko Partio, Leila Hieta, Ossi LaineWeather Forecasting

    Finnish Meteorological Institute · Aalto University

  27. WeatherNext 3: Increasing resolution and performance of global weather models with raw observations

    Sep 3, 2026Stephan Rasp, Boris Babenko, Dominic Masters +22Probabilistic ForecastingWeather Forecasting

    1Google DeepMind · 2Google Research · 3Google

  28. Improving global precipitation forecasts with an AI weather model trained on satellite observations

    Sep 2, 2026Julian F. Schmitt, Bertrand Delorme, Robert C. King +4Precipitation ForecastingProbabilistic Forecasting

    X, The Moonshot Factory, Google LLC, Mountain View, CA, USA · Google, Google LLC, Mountain View, CA, USA · Environmental Science and Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA +1

  29. Online Reinforcement Learning in the Met Office Unified Model through Distributed Model-Agent Coupling

    Sep 2, 2026Pritthijit Nath, Sebastian Schemm, Peter Haynes +2Weather ForecastingDistributed RL

    Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge · Department of Computer Science and Technology, University of Cambridge · Met Office Hadley Centre

  30. TC-Next: Zero-Shot Multimodal Cyclone Forecasting

    Sep 2, 2026Zhe Wang, Sijie Chen, Yiming Luo +2Weather ForecastingMultimodal Learning

    Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213 · Seoul National University Seoul, South Korea · Durham University Durham, United Kingdom