From Noise to Signal: When Outliers Seed New Topics

Some documents that embedding-based topic models initially classify as noise later become founding members of emerging topics. At publication time, however, they appear as scattered points in embedding space and are difficult to distinguish from ordinary noise without the benefit of hindsight. We study whether such anticipatory outliers can be predicted prospectively, using only information available when a document first appears. We derive labels from the subsequent trajectories of outlier documents, distinguishing those that anticipate new topics from those that reinforce existing topics or remain isolated, and estimate label confidence through agreement across multiple embedding models. On two French news corpora, anticipatory outliers prove predictable at publication time. Under cross-validation, $F_1$ rises from about 0.77 over the full eligible population to above 0.90 on high-consensus subsets, and remains at 0.76-0.80 under a strictly chronological evaluation. Predictive performance is driven mainly by geometric features capturing each outlier's position in embedding space.

In studies of media coverage of extreme climate events, NLP methods have become indispensable for identifying relevant texts in large news databases. Still, enough annotated data to train accurate deep learning-based classifiers from scratch is often not available. Topic Models have the advantage of being both unsupervised and interpretable, but are typically used only for exploratory analysis or data characterisation. In this study, we investigate how to employ Topic Models as binary classifiers for refining the retrieval of relevant news about seven types of extreme climate events in the German media. Our method relies on the posterior distributions estimated by Topic Models to select relevant documents, without modifying their training procedure. Using an annotated sample to guide the evaluation, we show that the probabilities assigned to keywords used to query news databases can also be informative for selecting relevant topics and improve sample precision. We compare our results to a fine-tuned text embedding classifier and an open-weight LLM, discussing observed trade-offs, e.g. the LLM's lowest precision. Moreover, we show that results are hazard-dependent, which speaks against considering climate events as a single category in NLP tasks.

Topic modeling extracts latent themes from large text collections, but leading approaches like BERTopic face critical limitations: stochastic instability, loss of lexical precision ("Embedding Blur"), and reliance on a single data perspective. We present TriTopic, a framework that addresses these weaknesses through a tri-modal graph fusing semantic embeddings, TF-IDF, and metadata. Three core innovations drive its performance: hybrid graph construction via Mutual kNN and Shared Nearest Neighbors to eliminate noise and combat the curse of dimensionality; Consensus Leiden Clustering for reproducible, stable partitions; and Iterative Refinement that sharpens embeddings through dynamic centroid-pulling. TriTopic also replaces the "average document" concept with archetype-based topic representations defined by boundary cases rather than centers alone. In benchmarks across 20 Newsgroups, BBC News, AG News, and Arxiv, TriTopic achieves the highest NMI on every dataset (mean NMI 0.575 vs. 0.513 for BERTopic, 0.416 for NMF, 0.299 for LDA), guarantees 100% corpus coverage with 0% outliers, and is available as an open-source PyPI library.