Predicting Emerging Topics from Outliers: A Prospective Study of Weak Signals in Embedding Space

In studies of media coverage of extreme climate events, NLP methods have become indispensable for identifying relevant texts in large news databases. Still, enough annotated data to train accurate deep learning-based classifiers from scratch is often not available. Topic Models have the advantage of being both unsupervised and interpretable, but are typically used only for exploratory analysis or data characterisation. In this study, we investigate how to employ Topic Models as binary classifiers for refining the retrieval of relevant news about seven types of extreme climate events in the German media. Our method relies on the posterior distributions estimated by Topic Models to select relevant documents, without modifying their training procedure. Using an annotated sample to guide the evaluation, we show that the probabilities assigned to keywords used to query news databases can also be informative for selecting relevant topics and improve sample precision. We compare our results to a fine-tuned text embedding classifier and an open-weight LLM, discussing observed trade-offs, e.g. the LLM's lowest precision. Moreover, we show that results are hazard-dependent, which speaks against considering climate events as a single category in NLP tasks.

A social highlighter's most useful signal -- which passages a crowd of readers marks -- exists only for documents people have already read. Can the aggregate crowd salience of a document be predicted from its text before its marks accumulate? Prior work on this data found that zero-shot language models recover highlight locations worse than a trivial lead (position) baseline, so we ask whether a model trained on the highlight corpus can beat that baseline. Using a pre-registered ladder of models and a by-document cluster bootstrap, we find a small but robust edge: a logistic ranker over sentence embeddings and positional/contextual features beats the lead baseline by +0.044 average precision (95% CI [+0.029, +0.058]; clears a pre-registered margin delta=0.03 in 97% of resamples, and stable across pipeline re-runs). Two unsupervised extractive baselines (centroid, LexRank-style centrality) lose to lead, and the trained model beats them by +0.108, so the edge is not recovered by generic unsupervised proxies -- it reflects learning from real reader marks. In product terms, precision@3 rises from 0.25 to 0.39 (+55% relative) and the model beats lead on 69% of documents. An ablation attributes the edge to the raw embedding (+0.014) and training augmentation (+0.010), each with a positive CI. The edge is not a temporal-generalization failure, and we find no evidence that content drift or near-duplicate leakage explains it. A standardized regression shows the advantage is governed mainly by document popularity (lower popularity, larger edge) and by label reliability. It nearly vanishes only on the most popular content; there it is the lead baseline that strengthens, not the model that weakens. Because our evaluation conditions on documents that eventually accumulated readers, these results are a retrospective cold-start simulation.

Traditional topic modeling assigns a single topic to each document. In practice, however, many real-world documents, such as product reviews or open-ended survey responses, contain multiple distinct topics. This mismatch often leads to topic contamination, where unrelated themes are merged into a single topic, making it difficult to identify documents that truly focus on a specific subject. We address this issue by introducing segment-based topic allocation (SBTA), a reformulation of topic modeling that assigns topics not to entire documents, but to segments: short, coherent spans of text that each express a single theme. By modeling topical structure at the segment level, our approach yields cleaner and more interpretable topics and better supports analysis of multi-theme documents. To support systematic evaluation, we construct a SemEval-STM, a new dataset inspired by aspect-based sentiment analysis. Documents are first decomposed into topical segments using large language models (LLMs), followed by human refinement to ensure segment quality. We also propose a segment-level extension of the word intrusion task, enabling human evaluation of topical coherence at the granularity where topics are actually assigned. Across multiple models and evaluation metrics, we show that SBTA improves clustering quality and interpretability. Overall, this work provides a practical, scalable framework for fine-grained topic analysis in heterogeneous text corpora where documents naturally span multiple topics. URL: https://huggingface.co/datasets/LG-AI-Research/SemEval-STM