Deterministic Hallucination Detection in Medical VQA via Confidence-Evidence Bayesian Gain
Authors: Mohammad Asadi, Tahoura Nedaee, Jack W. O'Sullivan, Euan Ashley, Ehsan Adeli
Organizations: Department of Electrical Engineering, Stanford University, CA, USA · Department of Biology, Stanford University, CA, USA · Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, CA, USA · Department of Biomedical Data Science, Stanford University, CA, USA · Department of Computer Science, Stanford University, CA, USA · Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University, CA, USA
Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown strong potential for medical Visual Question Answering (VQA), yet they remain prone to hallucinations, defined as generating responses that contradict the input image, posing serious risks in clinical settings. Current hallucination detection methods, such as Semantic Entropy (SE) and Vision-Amplified Semantic Entropy (VASE), require 10 to 20 stochastic generations per sample together with an external natural language inference model for semantic clustering, making them computationally expensive and difficult to deploy in practice. We observe that hallucinated responses exhibit a distinctive signature directly in the model's own log-probabilities: inconsistent token-level confidence and weak sensitivity to visual evidence. Based on this observation, we propose Confidence-Evidence Bayesian Gain (CEBaG), a deterministic hallucination detection method that requires no stochastic sampling, no external models, and no task-specific hyperparameters. CEBaG combines two complementary signals: token-level predictive variance, which captures inconsistent confidence across response tokens, and evidence magnitude, which measures how much the image shifts per-token predictions relative to text-only inference. Evaluated across four medical MLLMs and three VQA benchmarks (16 experimental settings), CEBaG achieves the highest AUC in 13 of 16 settings and improves over VASE by 8 AUC points on average, while being fully deterministic and self-contained. https://github.com/masadi-99/CEBaG
Figures & tables
Figure 1: Overview of CEBaG for hallucination detection in medical VQA. (a) The CEBaG pipeline: the model generates answer r , scored with and without the image to yield two signals: token-level predictive variance σ and evidence magnitude E=∣G∣/L . CEBaG combines these as σ⋅(1+E) . (b) Per-token probabilities ( 100P(token) ) with vs. without the image, and CEBaG scores for a grounded and a hallucinated example.
AvgProb [ 10 ]
SE [ 4 ]
VASE [ 16 ]
RadFlag [ 22 ]
CEBaG (Ours)
Dataset
AUC
AUG
AUC
AUG
AUC
AUG
AUC
AUG
AUC
AUG
MedGemma-4b-it [ 21 ]
VQA-RAD (Open)
39.9
48.0
61.9
65.3
60.8
63.3
58.4
63.6
61.0
64.8
VQA-RAD (All)
42.9
54.6
52.2
58.0
57.6
59.9
54.7
58.9
60.8
64.6
SLAKE
35.3
52.9
54.9
64.2
62.6
70.1
57.0
66.2
71.9
75.9
PathVQA
46.4
45.1
58.0
48.9
61.5
49.6
56.8
47.4
71.9
59.0
Table 1: Hallucination detection performance: AUC (%) ↑ and AUG (%) ↑ across four medical MLLMs and three VQA datasets. Best results per row are in bold ; second best are underlined . CEBaG achieves the best AUC in 13 of 16 settings.
Method
Forward passes
External model
Deterministic
Hyperparams
AUC
AUG
AvgProb [ 10 ]
1 gen.
None
Yes
None
51.3
47.6
SE [ 4 ]
M gen. + NLI
DeBERTa-MNLI
No
M , T
57.4
51.2
VASE [ 16 ]
2M gen. + NLI
DeBERTa-MNLI
No
M , T , α
59.6
52.4
RadFlag [ 22 ]
M gen. + NLI
DeBERTa-MNLI
No
M , T
57.8
50.6
CEBaG (Ours)
1 gen. + 2 evals
None
Yes
None
67.9
57.2
Table 2: Computational cost and performance. Despite an order of magnitude fewer forward passes, CEBaG achieves the highest average AUC and AUG.
AUC (%)
AUG (%)
Setting
σ
E
CEBaG
CEBaG λ
σ
E
CEBaG
CEBaG λ
MedGemma-4b-it
SLAKE
71.1
51.6
71.9
73.5
74.8
64.9
75.9
74.6
PathVQA
67.8
63.4
71.9
77.5
55.6
57.0
59.0
61.7
MedGemma-1.5-4b-it
VQA-RAD (Open)
68.2
63.9
72.9
75.7
44.7
40.8
47.2
47.0
Table 3: Ablation study: AUC (%) ↑ of CEBaG components. σ only uses token-level variance alone; E only uses absolute per-token gain alone; CEBaG combines both (parameter-free); CEBaG λ adds a tunable weight (upper bound).
Figure 2: Sensitivity to ground-truth threshold. CEBaG maintains high AUC across all GREEN thresholds (0.3–1.0), whereas VASE and SE degrade significantly at lower thresholds. This indicates CEBaG is robust to the strictness of the hallucination definition.
Model
Corr(Real, Noisy)
Corr(Real, Text-only)
HuatuoGPT-Vision-7B
0.995
0.974
LLaVA-Med-v1.5-Mistral-7B
0.999
0.957
MedGemma-1.5-4b-it
0.998
0.975
MedGemma-4b-it
0.938
0.777
Table 4: Correlation of model log-probabilities: Real image vs. Noisy image (VASE protocol) and Real image vs. Text-only (CEBaG protocol). High correlation between real and noisy images suggests that noise injection (as used in VASE) may not sufficiently disrupt the model’s visual prior, limiting the contrastive signal. Text-only priors provide a more distinct reference point.
While medical Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have shown promise in assisting diagnosis, they still frequently generate hallucinated responses that appear linguistically plausible but lack visual evidence. Such hallucinations pose risks to clinical decision-making and necessitate effective detection. Existing introspective detection methods primarily perform uncertainty estimation or logical verification by analyzing model responses conditioned on original or perturbed inputs. However, such external perturbations are often heuristic and context-agnostic, which overlooks the internal cross-modal dependency between generated tokens and related visual tokens during decoding. To address this issue, we propose VIHD, a Visual Intervention-based Hallucination Detection method that leverages targeted visual token masking to calibrate semantic entropy for more effective hallucination detection. VIHD locates visually dominant decoder layers via Visual Dependency Probing (VDP), executes Visual Intervention Decoding (VID) via token masking to calibrate the semantic distribution, and quantifies the resulting Calibrated Semantic Entropy (CSE) as a reliable hallucination signal. Extensive experiments on three medical VQA benchmarks with two medical MLLMs demonstrate that VIHD consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods, underscoring the importance of fine-grained visual dependency for hallucination detection. The code will be available at https://github.com/Jiayi-Chen-AU/VIHD
Jiayi Chen, Benteng Ma, Zehui Liao +3
Department of Data Science & AI, Faculty of Information Technology, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3800, Australia · Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China · Alfred Health Radiology, Alfred Health, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia +1
In medical visual question answering (VQA), hallucinations of vision-language models (VLMs) may lead to confident but incorrect responses, raising the risk of diagnostic errors. Existing hallucination detection methods uniformly estimate the reliability of VLM outputs from response consistency or visual evidence. However, such uniform verification across questions ignores question-specific characteristics, resulting in missed overconfident errors and false alarms from over-verification. We present PROVE (Proof-guided Regime-aware Operator Verification), a black-box detector that adapts verification strategy to the evidential structure of each question. PROVE classifies questions into three verification regimes based on what kind of visual proof they demand, activates a regime-specific subset of five complementary operators, and adjusts operator importance per question through a lightweight calibration layer conditioned on deterministic question-answer features. PROVE uses question-specific evidence to reweight operators and produce a calibrated risk score. Evaluated on 8048 test samples across three medical VQA benchmarks and four frontier VLMs, PROVE achieves 0.821 AUROC, outperforming the strongest baseline by +0.159, with consistent gains across all models and benchmarks.
Keyang Zhou, Siyi Li, Zhongnan Shi +3
Fudan University Shanghai, Shanghai, China · Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center Shanghai, Shanghai, China
Vision-Language models (VLMs) reliability in medical diagnosis is challenged by trust-undermining hallucinations. Existing hallucination detection approaches mainly focus on identifying factual inconsistencies between generated text and reference data. While some studies analyze where models attend in images, they seldom verify whether such attention truly reflects the visual evidence supporting the generated text. To address this gap, we propose Co}unter-Evidence Verification (CoEV), a training-free plug-and-play framework that detects and corrects hallucinations through evidence-based factual consistency verification. CoEV performs bidirectional verification between textual assertions and visual evidence, testing whether each statement is supported by its corresponding evidence region, and assigns each statement into a four-quadrant diagnostic map capturing combinations of text factuality and visual grounding. CoEV detects hallucinated content and serves as a post hoc refinement tool, correcting hallucinations without retraining. Extensive experiments on four medical datasets show that CoEV combats hallucinations in VLMs.For hallucination detection, CoEV consistently outperforms existing methods, improving average PR-AUC and ROC-AUC by 3.0% and 3.9% absolute points respectively, with notable gains of up to 18.5% in specific VQA scenarios. For hallucination correction, it improves Micro-F1 by up to 12.5%, reduces hallucination rates by over 11.9% on medical report generation, and also boosts medical VQA accuracy. These results show that CoEV enables reliable detection and correction of hallucinations, providing clinicians with dependable, evidence-based cues for diagnosis. Code will be released upon acceptance.
Nan Zhou, Ke Zou, Meng Liu +5
the College of Computer Science, Sichuan University. · Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore. · National Key Laboratory of Autonomous Intelligent Unmanned Systems, Beijing2026 Institute of Technology. +2