Upper Entropy for 2-Monotone Lower Probabilities

Credal sets, i.e., closed convex sets of probability measures, provide a natural framework to represent aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in machine learning. Yet how to quantify these two types of uncertainty for a given credal set, particularly in multiclass classification, remains underexplored. In this paper, we propose a distance-based approach to quantify total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty for credal sets. Concretely, we introduce a family of such measures within the framework of Integral Probability Metrics (IPMs). The resulting quantities admit clear semantic interpretations, satisfy natural theoretical desiderata, and remain computationally tractable for common choices of IPMs. We instantiate the framework with the total variation distance and obtain simple, efficient uncertainty measures for multiclass classification. In the binary case, this choice recovers established uncertainty measures, for which a principled multiclass generalization has so far been missing. Empirical results confirm practical usefulness, with favorable performance at low computational cost.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for reliable decision-making in safety-critical applications in probabilistic machine learning. For regression problems, dominant scalar UQ approaches - notably, those based on proper scoring rules - measure uncertainty via pointwise predictive risk. This can lead to counterintuitive results when the target statistic is not the conditional expectation. We propose an alternative framework, in which uncertainty is characterised by the volume of the most probable subset of a distribution's support. QUEST (Quantifying Uncertainty via highest dEnSiTy regions) is a novel approach to UQ based on the concentration of Lebesgue measure at a distribution's peak(s), evaluated at one or more values of a robustness parameter $α$. We establish connections between our measures and classical statistics from information theory and economics. We show that, unlike popular alternatives based on proper scoring rules, QUEST measures of epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty satisfy a set of axioms adapted from the UQ literature, including monotonicity under distributional spread and invariance to location shifts. Selective prediction benchmarks confirm that QUEST performs favourably against standard measures such as variance and differential entropy.

Estimating entropy from samples is fundamental in information theory and property testing. Shannon entropy measures average uncertainty and can be estimated to constant additive accuracy over a $k$-symbol alphabet using $Θ(k/\log k)$ samples. Min-entropy depends only on the most likely symbol. Both are special cases of order-$α$ R'{e}nyi entropy, $H_α$. We characterize the sample complexity of estimating min-entropy and R'{e}nyi entropy for $k$ and integer $α>1$; our lower bounds also hold for noninteger $α\ge1.001$. We prove that min-entropy estimation to constant additive accuracy has sample complexity $Θ(k\log k)$. The upper bound uses the largest empirical frequency and concentration via dyadic grouping. The matching lower bound hides a slightly heavier symbol at a uniformly random location. Thus, min-entropy requires $Θ(\log^2 k)$ more samples than Shannon entropy and corrects a previously stated $Θ(k/\log k)$ characterization. For every integer $2\leα\le c_0\log k$, we prove the matching fixed-accuracy bound $Θ_{c_0}(αk^{1-1/α})$. Previous results gave $Ω_α(k^{1-1/α})$ for fixed integer $α>1$ and $O_{c_0}(α^2k^{1-1/α})$ for all integer $α>1$. Our upper bound analyzes an unbiased falling-factorial estimator based on $α$-way collisions, while a hidden-heavy-coordinate construction gives the matching lower bound and shows that the factor $α$ is unavoidable. For every real $1.001\leα\le c_0\log k$, we prove the uniform lower bound $Ω_{c_0}(αk^{1-1/α})$. Finally, since $0\le H_α(p)-H_\infty(p)\le\log k/(α-1)$, min-entropy uniformly approximates $H_α$ when $α$ is a sufficiently large multiple of $\log k$. Combining this reduction with our min-entropy bounds gives $Θ_\varepsilon(k\log k)$ sample complexity in the high-order regime.