The Mass Agreement Score: A Point-centric Measure of Cluster Size Consistency

Clustering is widely used for unsupervised structure discovery, yet it offers limited insight into how reliable each individual assignment is. Diagnostics, such as convergence behavior or objective values, may reflect global quality, but they do not indicate whether particular instances are assigned confidently, especially for initialization-sensitive algorithms like k-means. This assignment-level instability can undermine both accuracy and robustness. Ensemble approaches improve global consistency by aggregating multiple runs, but they typically lack tools for quantifying pointwise confidence in a way that combines cross-run agreement with geometric support from the learned cluster structure. This work introduces CAKE (Confidence in Assignments via K-partition Ensembles), a framework that evaluates each point using two complementary statistics computed over a clustering ensemble: assignment stability and consistency of local geometric fit. These are combined into a single, interpretable score in [0,1]. The theoretical analysis shows that CAKE remains effective under noise and separates stable from unstable points. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets indicate that CAKE effectively highlights ambiguous points and stable core members, providing a confidence ranking over instances that can be used for selection or prioritization in downstream clustering workflows.

Determining the number of clusters is a central challenge in unsupervised learning, where ground-truth labels are unavailable. The Silhouette coefficient is a widely used internal validation metric for this task, yet its standard micro-averaged form tends to favor larger clusters under size imbalance. Macro-averaging mitigates this bias by weighting clusters equally, but may overemphasize noise from under-represented groups. We introduce Composite Silhouette, an internal criterion for cluster-count selection that aggregates evidence across repeated subsampled clusterings rather than relying on a single partition. For each subsample, micro- and macro-averaged Silhouette scores are combined through an adaptive convex weight determined by their normalized discrepancy and smoothed by a bounded nonlinearity; the final score is then obtained by averaging these subsample-level composites. We establish key properties of the criterion and derive finite-sample concentration guarantees for its subsampling estimate. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show that Composite Silhouette effectively reconciles the strengths of micro- and macro-averaging, yielding more accurate recovery of the ground-truth number of clusters.

We introduce Lumbermark, a robust divisive clustering algorithm capable of detecting clusters of varying sizes, densities, and shapes. Lumbermark iteratively chops off large limbs connected by protruding segments of a dataset's mutual reachability minimum spanning tree. The use of mutual reachability distances smoothens the data distribution and decreases the influence of low-density objects, such as noise points between clusters or outliers at their peripheries. The algorithm can be viewed as an alternative to HDBSCAN that produces partitions with user-specified sizes. A fast, easy-to-use implementation of the new method is available in the open-source 'lumbermark' package for Python and R. We show that Lumbermark performs well on benchmark data and hope it will prove useful to data scientists and practitioners across different fields.