Decoding Market Emotions in Cryptocurrency Tweets via Predictive Statement Classification with Machine Learning and Transformers

This paper explores the use of emojis in financial sentiment analysis, focusing on the social media platform StockTwits. Emojis, increasingly prevalent in digital communication, have potential as compact indicators of investor sentiment, which can be critical for predicting market trends. Our study examines whether emojis alone can serve as reliable proxies for financial sentiment and how they compare with traditional text-based analysis. We conduct a series of experiments using logistic regression and transformer models. We further analyze the performance, computational efficiency, and data requirements of emoji-based versus text-based sentiment classification. Using a balanced dataset of about 528,000 emoji-containing StockTwits posts, we find that emoji-only models achieve F1 approximately 0.75, lower than text-emoji combined models, which achieve F1 approximately 0.88, but with far lower computational cost. This is a useful feature in time-sensitive settings such as high-frequency trading. Furthermore, certain emojis and emoji pairs exhibit strong predictive power for market sentiment, demonstrating over 90 percent accuracy in predicting bullish or bearish trends. Finally, our research reveals large statistical differences in emoji usage between financial and general social media contexts, stressing the need for domain-specific sentiment analysis models.

Decentraland, a decentralized virtual reality platform operating within the expanding Metaverse ecosystem, utilizes its native MANA token to facilitate virtual asset transactions and governance. This study investigates the integration of Discord community sentiment with multi-modal financial data to enhance cryptocurrency price prediction within virtual world economies. We address: (1) identifying sentiment patterns within Decentraland's Discord community, and (2) evaluating the impact of multi-modal features on token return forecasting. Using a BERT-based large language model for sentiment analysis, we develop two LSTM architectures: a baseline incorporating historical prices and a multi-modal variant integrating sentiment scores, trading volume, and market capitalization. Results indicate predominantly neutral community sentiment with a positive skew. The multi-modal model significantly outperforms the price-only baseline in prediction accuracy. These findings demonstrate the predictive value of community-derived signals for virtual economy forecasting and establish a foundation for future research at the intersection of immersive virtual environments, natural language processing, and cryptocurrency market analysis.

Cryptocurrencies are widely used, yet current methods for analyzing transactions often rely on opaque, black-box models. While these models may achieve high performance, their outputs are usually difficult to interpret and adapt, making it challenging to capture nuanced behavioral patterns. Large language models (LLMs) have the potential to address these gaps, but their capabilities in this area remain largely unexplored, particularly in cybercrime detection. In this paper, we test this hypothesis by applying LLMs to real-world cryptocurrency transaction graphs, with a focus on Bitcoin, one of the most studied and widely adopted blockchain networks. We introduce a three-tiered framework to assess LLM capabilities: foundational metrics, characteristic overview, and contextual interpretation. This includes a new, human-readable graph representation format, LLM4TG, and a connectivity-enhanced transaction graph sampling algorithm, CETraS. Together, they significantly reduce token requirements, transforming the analysis of multiple moderately large-scale transaction graphs with LLMs from nearly impossible to feasible under strict token limits. Experimental results demonstrate that LLMs have outstanding performance on foundational metrics and characteristic overview, where the accuracy of recognizing most basic information at the node level exceeds 98.50% and the proportion of obtaining meaningful characteristics reaches 95.00%. Regarding contextual interpretation, LLMs also demonstrate strong performance in classification tasks, even with very limited labeled data, where top-3 accuracy reaches 72.43% with explanations. While the explanations are not always fully accurate, they highlight the strong potential of LLMs in this domain. At the same time, several limitations persist, which we discuss along with directions for future research.