Uncertainty Quantification for Quantum Computing

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for reliable decision-making in safety-critical applications in probabilistic machine learning. For regression problems, dominant scalar UQ approaches - notably, those based on proper scoring rules - measure uncertainty via pointwise predictive risk. This can lead to counterintuitive results when the target statistic is not the conditional expectation. We propose an alternative framework, in which uncertainty is characterised by the volume of the most probable subset of a distribution's support. QUEST (Quantifying Uncertainty via highest dEnSiTy regions) is a novel approach to UQ based on the concentration of Lebesgue measure at a distribution's peak(s), evaluated at one or more values of a robustness parameter $α$. We establish connections between our measures and classical statistics from information theory and economics. We show that, unlike popular alternatives based on proper scoring rules, QUEST measures of epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty satisfy a set of axioms adapted from the UQ literature, including monotonicity under distributional spread and invariance to location shifts. Selective prediction benchmarks confirm that QUEST performs favourably against standard measures such as variance and differential entropy.

Quantum multi-armed bandits (MAB) and stochastic linear bandits (SLB) have recently attracted significant attention, as their quantum counterparts can achieve quadratic speedups over classical MAB and SLB. However, most existing quantum MAB algorithms assume ideal quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) procedures on noise-free circuits, overlooking the impact of noise in current noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices. In this paper, we study a noise-robust QMC algorithm that improves estimation accuracy when querying quantum reward oracles. Building on this estimator, we propose noise-robust QMAB and QSLB algorithms that enhance performance in noisy environments while preserving the advantage over classical methods. Experiments show that our noise-robust approach improves QMAB estimation accuracy and reduces regret under several quantum noise models.

Operator learning enables fast surrogate modelling of high-dimensional dynamical systems, but existing approaches face two fundamental limitations: the quadratic cost of dense neural layers and unreliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical settings. We propose Conformalized Quantum DeepONet Ensembles, a framework that addresses both challenges simultaneously. Using Quantum Orthogonal Neural Networks (QOrthoNNs), we characterize the resource regime in which their established $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(n)$ hidden-layer running-time scaling improves on the $\mathcal{O}(n^2)$ cost of a classical dense layer. To quantify uncertainty, we combine ensemble predictions with split conformal calibration. For a new input-output function pair jointly exchangeable with the calibration pairs, we prove a finite-sample, distribution-free lower bound on the expected fraction of covered query locations. As a secondary proof-of-concept, we explore hybrid classical-quantum architectures and superposed execution to manage ensemble runtime and hardware requirements. Experiments on synthetic operator benchmarks and real-world power-system dynamics show accurate predictions under ideal simulation and empirical coverage near the target under both ideal conditions and selected compact-circuit simulations with depolarizing or device-calibrated composite noise. Together, these results connect resource-aware scalability analysis with finite-sample uncertainty guarantees for quantum operator learning.