Conformalized Quantum DeepONet Ensembles: Towards Scalable Operator Learning with Distribution-Free Guarantees
Authors: Purav Matlia, Christian Moya, Guang Lin
Abstract
Operator learning enables fast surrogate modelling of high-dimensional dynamical systems, but existing approaches face two fundamental limitations: the quadratic cost of dense neural layers and unreliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical settings. We propose Conformalized Quantum DeepONet Ensembles, a framework that addresses both challenges simultaneously. Using Quantum Orthogonal Neural Networks (QOrthoNNs), we characterize the resource regime in which their established O(n) hidden-layer running-time scaling improves on the O(n2) cost of a classical dense layer. To quantify uncertainty, we combine ensemble predictions with split conformal calibration. For a new input-output function pair jointly exchangeable with the calibration pairs, we prove a finite-sample, distribution-free lower bound on the expected fraction of covered query locations. As a secondary proof-of-concept, we explore hybrid classical-quantum architectures and superposed execution to manage ensemble runtime and hardware requirements. Experiments on synthetic operator benchmarks and real-world power-system dynamics show accurate predictions under ideal simulation and empirical coverage near the target under both ideal conditions and selected compact-circuit simulations with depolarizing or device-calibrated composite noise. Together, these results connect resource-aware scalability analysis with finite-sample uncertainty guarantees for quantum operator learning.
Neural operators such as the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) have emerged as powerful surrogates for solving partial differential equations (PDEs), achieving speedups of several orders of magnitude over traditional numerical solvers. However, deploying these models in safety-critical engineering applications -- such as thermal management of electronic components and battery systems -- requires not only accurate point predictions but also rigorous uncertainty guarantees. Existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for neural operators, including Monte Carlo Dropout and Deep Ensembles, provide only relative uncertainty estimates without formal coverage guarantees. In this work, we propose the first application of split conformal prediction to neural operator-based physics simulation, providing distribution-free prediction intervals with finite-sample coverage guarantees. We further introduce a normalized conformal prediction scheme that leverages MC Dropout uncertainty to produce adaptive-width intervals, yielding tighter intervals in regions of low uncertainty and wider intervals where the model is less certain. Full-scale experiments (33.7M parameters, 800 training samples, 5 ensemble members, NVIDIA V100) on steady-state heat conduction benchmarks demonstrate that our method achieves 89.1% empirical coverage at the target level of alpha=0.1, while producing spatially adaptive prediction intervals that reflect the underlying physical uncertainty structure. We also provide an uncertainty decomposition framework that separates epistemic uncertainty (68% of total) from aleatoric uncertainty (32% of total), offering actionable guidance for data collection and model improvement. Our method is implemented in an open-source platform with REST API endpoints and interactive 3D visualization.
Partial differential equations (PDEs) are central to modeling physical and engineering systems, but repeatedly solving parametric PDEs remains computationally expensive. Operator learning enables fast surrogate inference, yet typically requires large input-output paired datasets generated by costly high-fidelity PDE solvers. Unsupervised operator learning frameworks alleviate data dependency but remain hindered by computational bottlenecks. To address this, we propose Neural Variational Quantum Linear Solver (NVQLS), the first hybrid quantum-classical operator learning framework leveraging the Legendre--Galerkin weak formulation. We critically resolve the sign ambiguity in VQLS energy minimization, preventing erroneous solution representations. Additionally, we introduce a neural embedding, a novel encoding scheme to map varying forcings and PDE coefficients into parameterized quantum circuit representations. These structural innovations provide theoretical computational complexity advantages under efficient state preparation schemes, while achieving superior accuracy compared to a representative classical baseline. Validations on 1D and 2D parametric PDEs under diverse boundary conditions demonstrate NVQLS's capability to simultaneously process varying inputs, offering a scalable unsupervised approach to quantum-enhanced operator learning.
We introduce a novel framework for uncertainty quantification of solution operators associated with stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). Although SPDEs play a central role in modeling complex physical systems under uncertainty, their practical use typically requires specifying the magnitude and structure of model uncertainties that are often unknown and difficult to infer from noisy measurements. To address this challenge, we develop a stochastic operator-learning framework that learns directly from noisy data and outputs both a mean solution field and a quantification of uncertainty. The proposed method, namely the Stochastic Operator Network (SON), is constructed by combining the structure of the Deep Operator Network (DeepONet) with Stochastic Neural Networks (SNNs) to model stochasticity and enable probabilistic prediction. The training procedure is carried out by minimizing a Hamiltonian-type loss and optimizing the resulting objective using the Stochastic Maximum Principle. Numerical experiments on benchmark SPDEs under multiple uncertainty sources demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the proposed method in capturing solution structure and quantifying predictive uncertainty.