Model Capability Dominates: Inference-Time Optimization Lessons from AIMO 3

Compute scaling for LLM reasoning trades off exploring solution approaches (breadth) against refining promising ones (depth), yet why a given trade-off works, and why it often fails to transfer across models, remains unclear. We argue that the optimal strategy depends on the model's diversity profile, the spread of probability mass across solution approaches, and that this must be characterized before any exploration strategy is adopted. We formalize this with a framework decomposing reasoning uncertainty, deriving when depth-based refinement outperforms parallel sampling, and validate it across three model families at both inference and training. Our central finding is that the diversity regime dictates the strategy: low-diversity aligned models benefit from depth-based refinement with lightweight intrinsic signals, whereas high-diversity base models are often harmed by it, and instead need breadth or stronger signals to compensate.

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting remains the standard baseline for evaluating models' reasoning abilities. Originally, this technique was introduced to elicit step-by-step reasoning from large language models (LLMs), which would otherwise tend to directly output the final answer. However, many modern LLMs produce CoT-style responses natively when presented with reasoning tasks, which made us revisit the effectiveness of standard CoT prompting. We evaluate several modern mid-sized language models on a math problem-solving task and find that models specialized for reasoning achieve better performance in a simple zero-shot setting than when using few-shot CoT examples - significantly surpassing officially reported results at no additional cost (e.g., from $\sim$77% to $\sim$84% for Mathstral on GSM8K). For the tested general-purpose model, a zero-shot CoT prompt is also sufficient to outperform a few-shot CoT baseline. We attribute this to a `guidance-distraction' tradeoff: standard CoT prompting also demands style adaptation, formatting compliance, and potentially undesired contextualization, which can distract models from the core reasoning task. Our findings suggest that using standard CoT prompting increasingly acts as a source of distraction as models grow stronger.

Post-training is central to mathematical reasoning in modern large language models (LLMs), but endpoint pass@1 alone underidentifies what has changed. Gains may reflect newly reachable solutions, cheaper sampling of latent solutions, surface robustness, or memorisation. We compare three post-training paths under a common diagnostic readout: our sufficiently trained off-policy distillation trajectories, released Qwen3 off-policy-plus-on-policy distillation endpoints, and a released DeepSeek-Math endpoint trained with Group Relative Policy Optimisation (GRPO). Our probe uses cross-surface pass@K over verbatim prompts, paraphrases, numerical isomorphisms, and translations, plus consistency, distribution-shape, and verified supervised-fine-tuning (SFT) membership analyses. We find two regimes. On easier AMC problems, large-K ceilings are near saturation, so post-training mainly compresses sample cost. On harder AIME problems, post-training expands the large-K ceiling over the base model: sufficient off-policy distillation already raises this ceiling, Qwen3 released endpoints raise it further, and DeepSeek-Math GRPO does not dominate sufficient off-policy distillation at large K. English-dominant distillation improves non-English reasoning but preserves language-tier gaps. A controlled-overfit audit finds limited sensitivity in current SFT-membership probes. Compression is one regime of post-training, not a universal explanation.