Multimodal Analytics of Cybersecurity Crisis Preparation Exercises: What Predicts Success?

Cross-modal alignment (CA) and cross-modal prediction (CP) are the dominant paradigms for multimodal representation learning, yet there is no systematic understanding of when each succeeds and when each fails --- a gap that leaves practitioners, especially in scientific domains with heterogeneous instruments and multiple levels of measurement, unable to diagnose why standard methods underperform the best single modality. We study both objectives under a spiked signal-plus-noise model with structured cross-modal nuisance correlation, the ingredient that breaks the classical recovery guarantees, and derive separation ratios that expose complementary failure modes: alignment whitens each modality and fails when nuisance is strongly correlated across views; prediction encodes whatever is cross-predictable through a one-sided whitening, with recovery governed by source-modality quality. The resulting phase diagram partitions multimodal problems into four regimes --- Both, CA only, CP only, and Neither --- refined by a recovery count that separates partial recovery from complete failure. We present a data-driven procedure to locate real-world datasets in this diagram using a small labeled subsample, identifying the preferred objective and prediction direction before any cross-modal training, and identifying when no objective in the CA/CP family can improve on the stronger modality alone. Experiments on synthetic data, stereo-vision benchmarks, image--caption pairs, and two real scientific domains --- astronomy and single-cell multi-omics --- validate the predictions in the nonlinear regime, including both faces of the Neither regime. Code to reproduce the results is available at https://github.com/IlayMalinyak/mm_align_vs_pred.

There is no doubt that safety alignment is an essential step in LLM training. However, conceptually it does not distinguish between various domains and the level of potential harm of a query, which creates significant complications in the fields like cyber security, where a model should not be constrained by its safety circuits to accomplish the goals of legitimate, authorized operations. In this work, we share our findings from a large scale abliteration experiment on 24 open-source LLMs and show that domain-specific abliteration is achievable with standard methodology on the example of a 1T-parameter Kimi K2. Building on recent work showing that refusal in LLMs occupies a multi-dimensional subspace within layers, we find that it is also distributed widely across layers, especially in trillion-parameter MoE architectures, and so we aim to capture the part of it that represents harmful concepts in the cybersecurity domain exclusively. We also investigate the correlation between models' features and the effect of domain-specific abliteration, identifying that the type of safety training and architecture are the most reliable predictors. Finally, we classify the models into 3 abliteration susceptibility tiers and put forward a set of conjectures as to why a particular effect from this intervention might be observed in a given model.

Collaborative game-based learning environments offer rich opportunities for small-group knowledge construction, yet automatically predicting student collaboration satisfaction remains challenging. A critical barrier is modality degradation: in educational deployments, individual modalities such as eye gaze exhibit inconsistent informativeness across student cohorts, causing implicit attention-based fusion to produce brittle multimodal representations. We propose the Affinity-Aligned Multimodal Learning Analytics (AAMLA) framework, whose core contribution is the Cross-modal Affinity-guided Modality Alignment (CAMA) module, which explicitly models inter-modal relationships via affinity matrices and enforces cross-modal consistency through contrastive learning, enabling adaptive suppression of uninformative modalities without discarding them. AAMLA further applies modality-specific projection layers to map heterogeneous features, including facial action units, head pose, eye gaze, and interaction trace logs, into a unified semantic space prior to alignment. Experiments on 50 middle school students in the EcoJourneys collaborative learning environment demonstrate consistent improvements over unimodal baselines and prior cross-attention approaches under standard and modality degradation conditions, with SHAP and t-SNE analyses confirming that CAMA produces robust, interpretable cross-modal representations for student collaboration modeling.