Transfer Learning in Bayesian Optimization for Aircraft Design

Self-driving laboratories increasingly rely on multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization (MFBO) to balance cheap, approximate evaluations against scarce, expensive ones, with a predictive surrogate at its core. Gaussian processes (GPs) are the default choice, but they scale poorly as data accumulate and assume a smooth landscape that molecular and materials search spaces routinely violate. Transfer learning offers an alternative suited to this regime: it learns a representation from abundant cheap data and adapts it to sparse expensive data. Despite its use in property prediction, transfer learning has not been tested as the engine of a closed-loop optimization. Here we benchmark eleven transfer-learning surrogates against four GP methods under an identical selection rule, fidelity budget, and model size, across nine tasks spanning synthetic functions to real chemistry and materials problems. GPs win on smooth, low-dimensional functions but perform worst on molecular and materials problems, where transfer-learning surrogates reach substantially better solutions using far less computation. Because acquisition policy is held fixed across surrogates, this advantage is attributable to the surrogate itself. Uncertainty-driven exploration is not reliably beneficial, and calibration does not predict optimization performance, so greedy exploitation of the transfer-learned mean is the more robust default. Transfer learning is therefore the surrogate of choice for molecular and materials MFBO.

Bayesian optimization routinely warm-starts a target experiment with data from related source tasks, and the multi-task Gaussian process is the textbook surrogate for the job. We revisit this default in a controlled setting and find that it misestimates the cross-task correlation even in the simplest non-trivial case, affinely related source and target tasks, where a working transfer learning method should obviously succeed. We trace the failure to two independent structural mechanisms. Per-task standardization, the textbook fix for the affine slice ambiguity, propagates a finite-sample alignment error into the recovered correlation. The marginal likelihood itself identifies the correlation only at a per-sample rate that a Gaussian process at non-overlapping designs further dilutes. We propose three conservative remedies that follow from the analysis: promoting per-task means and scales to model parameters, restricting the task covariance to non-negative correlations, and co-locating part of the source and target designs. Across synthetic multi-task problems and surrogate-based hyperparameter tuning transfer, these remedies recover the target-only baseline on the simple instances, while the broader failure persists on harder instances and across most rank-based and latent-context variants.

Expensive constrained optimization problems in real-world industry design often involve constraint thresholds that are difficult to determine in advance. Engineers may need to adjust constraint thresholds to explore different feasibility-performance trade-offs, requiring solutions under a wide range of threshold settings. However, existing constrained Bayesian optimization methods treat each threshold configuration independently, leading to repeated optimization and failing to exploit the shared relationship among continuously varying thresholds. To address this challenge, we propose constraint-bound agnostic Bayesian optimization (CBA-BO), a learning-based framework that learns a parametric constraint model mapping thresholds to optimal solutions. Once learned, CBA-BO directly predicts solutions for arbitrary unseen threshold configurations without additional optimization, with a one-step Bayesian optimization refinement further improving solution quality. Experiments on benchmark and engineering problems demonstrate that CBA-BO learns a transferable threshold-solution mapping, enabling efficient prediction and optimization for arbitrary threshold queries. An intent-guided constraint-bound recommendation mechanism is further developed to improve objective performance while satisfying user-specified constraint preferences.