Let the Abyss Stare Back Adaptive Falsification for Autonomous Scientific Discovery

Autonomous scientific discovery with LLMs requires generating and testing hypotheses adaptively as evidence accumulates while maintaining statistical validity. Existing anytime-valid methods can handle data-dependent hypotheses, but open-ended discovery poses a deeper challenge: the best discovered hypothesis may still be the best of a bad lot, with better explanations yet undiscovered, while even background knowledge such as physical laws may require revision in light of new findings. In response, we formalize the problem as Abductive Autonomous Scientific Discovery (AASD) using possibility theory. We introduce abductive utility, a computable measure of discovery progress, and possibility frontier search, the first algorithm for AASD, which maintains anytime validity and achieves $\varepsilon$-optimal abductive utility asymptotically under suitable conditions. Experiments on synthetic and real-world scientific-discovery tasks show strong performance.

Reliable automated research requires agents to vet data, verify analyses, and generate hypotheses grounded in trustworthy evidence, potentially reducing routine scientific workload while allowing scientists to focus on interpretation and discovery. Existing benchmarks often only assess analytical task completion or hypothesis generation separately rather than testing whether reliable evidence supports valid and novel claims. We introduce DISCERN (Data Integrity and Scientific Capability: Evidence, Reasoning, and Novelty), a controlled benchmark on real, publicly available datasets that evaluates three key levels of an automated research workflow. The first two levels test data integrity and analysis verification under confounds and tool traps, while the third tests hypothesis generation and revision under adversarial review, including counterfactual cases in which evidence consistent with real data and documented scientific phenomena conflicts with established expectations, motivating alternative explanations and testable hypotheses. Across 203 tasks, eight life-science tracks, and eight models, DISCERN shows that strong aggregate performance can mask level-specific weaknesses. Agents earn perfect scores in only 60.8% of Level 1, 34.2% of Level 2, and 0.6% of Level 3 evaluations, with penalties attributed to rejection of sound data, failure to carry recognized limitations into conclusions, and wide variation in hypothesis production. Cross-track rankings by token and code use are substantially more stable than rankings by evidence judgment, suggesting greater consistency in computational effort than in evidence-based reasoning. These profiles identify opportunities for supervised scientific assistance, but current agents do not yet demonstrate reliable autonomous analysis or discovery. Code and data: https://huggingface.co/datasets/discern-bench-anon/discern-benchmark

Scientific discovery begins where known problems end. There, AI systems must engage in exploration: framing hypotheses, designing experiments, and iterating on the results. However, evaluating this ability is difficult: (1) how to verify whether a genuinely new hypothesis holds, and (2) how to determine whether a system has discovered it through exploration or merely recalled related knowledge from pre-training data. To this end, we introduce ExplorationBench, which turns the wicked problem of evaluating scientific exploration into a concrete and tractable framework built on verifiable Alien Worlds: their rules are executable, so every answer can be checked exactly, and they conflict with familiar knowledge, so recall alone cannot solve the tasks. The benchmark contains two sandboxes, AlienCode (31 discovery targets, 70 tasks) and AlienLogic (24 discovery targets, 70 tasks). Each sandbox provides a flawed manual, task-specific environmental feedback, and a dedicated tool-call schema. Systems use these resources to explore the sandbox, then solve held-out tasks. We evaluate 10 AI systems and find that the strongest systems can acquire and apply unfamiliar rules, while performance varies substantially across trajectories and continued exploration can stall or reverse earlier gains. ExplorationBench represents a step towards AI systems that can acquire and apply genuinely new knowledge through exploration in unknown environments.