Capturing Multivariate Dependencies of EV Charging Events: From Parametric Copulas to Neural Density Estimation

The increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is expected to place significant additional demand on residential distribution networks, creating a need for realistic charging datasets for planning and simulation studies. However, access to real-world EV charging data is often limited due to privacy constraints, incomplete records, and restricted availability. This paper proposes a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) for the generation of synthetic EV charging sessions from real transaction-level charging data. The model is trained on engineered session features describing plug-in duration, charging duration, delivered energy, charging delay, and cyclical time-of-week, while conditioning on day of week and managed charging status. A Gaussian negative log-likelihood (NLL) reconstruction loss is employed to model feature-wise heteroscedastic uncertainty, and the latent space is regularised using a Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence term. The statistical fidelity of the generated data is evaluated using distributional metrics and downstream task performance through the Train-on-Synthetic-Test-on-Real (TSTR) protocol. Results demonstrate that the proposed approach produces synthetic EV charging sessions that preserve key statistical properties of the original dataset while supporting predictive modelling tasks.

Accurate forecasting of electric vehicle (EV) charging demand is critical for grid management and infrastructure planning. Yet the field continues to rely on legacy benchmarks; such as the Palo Alto (2020) dataset; that fail to reflect the scale and behavioral diversity of modern charging networks. To address this, we introduce a novel large-scale longitudinal dataset collected across Scotland (2022 2025), which release it as an open benchmark for the community. Building on this dataset, we formulate EV charging demand as a spatio-temporal latent Gaussian field and perform approximate Bayesian inference via Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA). The resulting model jointly captures spatial dependence, temporal dynamics, and covariate effects within a unified proba bilistic framework. On station-level forecasting tasks, our approach achieves competitive predictive accuracy against machine learning baselines, while additionally providing principled uncertainty quan tification and interpretable spatial and temporal decompositions properties that are essential for risk-aware infrastructure planning.

Accurate forecasting of electric vehicle (EV) charging demand is critical for grid stability, infrastructure planning, and real-time charging optimization. In this work, we study the problem of early prediction of charging demand, where the total energy of a session is estimated using only information available at plug-in time and during the first minutes of charging. This enables actionable decisions while the session is still in progress, which is of direct importance for EV network operators. We construct a session-level dataset from the Adaptive Charging Network (ACN), combining session metadata with early-window charging measurements, and derive tabular features capturing user intent, temporal patterns, and initial charging behavior. We focus on a single operational depot, Caltech, and model intra-depot heterogeneity through station-level client partitions while evaluating multiple model families in a federated learning (FL) setting. Our results show that federated models can approach centralized predictive performance while keeping data in-depot, enabling privacy-enhanced training across distributed charging infrastructures. Overall, we demonstrate that reliable demand estimates can be obtained early in the session with minimal data, and that FL provides a practical pathway toward scalable and privacy-aware analytics for EV charging networks. Code is available at https://github.com/Indigma-Innovations/federated-learning-ev-charging-demand.