A key problem in the modern study of AI is predicting and understanding emergent capabilities in models during training. Inspired by methods for studying reactions in quantum chemistry, we present the ``2-datapoint reduced density matrix". We show that this object provides a computationally efficient, unified observable of phase transitions during training. By tracking the eigenvalue statistics of the 2RDM over a sliding window, we derive two complementary signals: the spectral heat capacity, which we prove provides early warning of second-order phase transitions via critical slowing down, and the participation ratio, which reveals the dimensionality of the underlying reorganization. Remarkably, the top eigenvectors of the 2RDM are directly interpretable making it straightforward to study the nature of the transitions. We validate across four distinct settings: deep linear networks, induction head formation, grokking, and emergent misalignment. We then discuss directions for future work using the 2RDM.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: A schematic for using the 2RDM. Losses for 60 probes in three groups are given by ℓ(t)=a(t)v1+εt , with v1 supported only on Group B. (A) Per-probe losses; the black rectangle marks the sliding window used to estimate the covariance. (B) Covariance snapshots: block structure in the Group B sub-matrix appears only during the transition. (C) The spectral heat capacity (red) spikes before the structural coordinate (blue) completes the transition. (D) The top eigenvector of C at the SHC peak localizes on Group B, identifying the participating probes without prior knowledge of the group structure.
Figure 2: The average lag (time between the SHC spike and the mode alignment) computed across 30 random seeds. Note the slight increase near the far right. This corresponds to the alignment of another nearby mode.
Figure 3: Participation ratio and SHC for a single DLN training run.
Figure 4: These plots show that the SHC consistently early detects the induction head formation.
Figure 5: The block energy between the random and structured blocks.
Figure 6: Figures demonstrating that the SHC produces statistically consistent and interpretable results for induction heads.
Figure 7: Plots showing the SHC for the train-test mix as well as the individual train and test subsets, shown vs. accuracy.
Figure 8: The concentration of Fourier modes (k1,k2) within the top eigenvector v1 of the 2RDM C .
Figure 9: The PR stabilizing when the weight decay and the gradient update balance.
Figure 10: The SHC and the participation ratio relative to alignment scores.
Figure 11: The total variance per each group. This is analogous to the eigenvector interpretability discussed in Section 2.2.3 : there, we project the eigenvectors into a natural basis to understand what the dominant mode represents; here, we decompose the matrix itself along semantically meaningful sample groups to understand which categories are driving the transition.
Group
N
Mean aligned
Alignment Probes
50
1.00
Alignment Probes (Free Form)
8
0.12
Alignment Probes (JSON)
8
0.25
Alignment Probes (Templated)
8
0.00
Benign Capability
50
1.00
Boundary Ambiguous
50
1.00
Table 1: Alignment evaluation across groups at step 5, where responses are judged as either aligned or misaligned.
Appendix figures & tables15 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
Figure 12: SHC spike location and magnitude.
Figure 13: Dynamical LLC vs. the LLC computed via [ 45 ]
Figure 14: LLC, SHC, and grad norm compared with induction head scores.
Figure 15: LLC, SHC, and grad norm compared with accuracy on grokking.
Figure 16: Loss on Grokking vs. LLC
Parameter
Value
Description
Architecture
din , dout
3
Input / output dimension
L
5
Number of linear layers
α
10−4
Initialization scale
Training
Learning rate η
0.05
Fixed step size
Appendix
Table 2: Hyperparameters for the deep linear network experiments.
Parameter
Value
Description
Total samples
100
Samples for loss covariance observable
Num steps between update
5
Frequency for loss covariance computation
Window size
20
Window size for covariance computation
Appendix
Table 3: Loss covariance configuration parameters for DLN Experiments
Parameter
Value
Description
L
2
Transformer layers
H
4
Attention heads per layer
dmodel
128
Residual stream dimension
dhead
32
Per-head dimension
dmlp
512
MLP hidden dimension
V
64
Vocabulary size
Appendix
Table 4: Transformer architecture for the induction head experiments.
Parameter
Value
Description
Training
Optimizer
AdamW
—
Learning rate η
3×10−4
Peak learning rate
Weight decay
0.01
AdamW regularization
Training steps
2,000
Total gradient updates
Warmup steps
500
Linear warmup
Appendix
Table 5: Training and diagnostic hyperparameters for the induction head experiments.
Parameter
Value
Description
Total samples
512
Samples for loss covariance observable
Num steps between update
10
Frequency for loss covariance computation
Window size
20
Window size for covariance computation
Appendix
Table 6: Loss covariance configuration parameters for Induction Head Experiments
Parameter
Value
Description
p
97
Prime modulus
demb
128
Embedding dimension (shared)
dhidden
512
MLP hidden dimension
Activation
ReLU
Hidden-layer nonlinearity
Initialization
Xavier normal
Embeddings and linear weights
Appendix
Table 7: Model architecture for the grokking experiments.
Parameter
Value
Description
Data
Dataset size
p2=9,409
All pairs (a,b)
Train / test split
50%/50%
Random split
Training
Optimizer
AdamW
—
Learning rate η
5×10−4
—
Appendix
Table 8: Training and diagnostic hyperparameters for the grokking experiments.
Parameter
Value
Description
Total samples
300
Samples for loss covariance observable
Num steps between update
25
Frequency for loss covariance computation
Window size
20
Window size for covariance computation
Appendix
Table 9: Loss covariance configuration parameters for Grokking
Parameter
Value
Description
Base Model
Model
Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct
Pre-trained chat model
LoRA Adaptation
Rank r
32
LoRA rank
α
64
LoRA scaling factor
Dropout
0.0
No LoRA dropout
Appendix
Table 10: Configuration for the emergent misalignment fine-tuning experiments.
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All calculations, numerical analysis, and manuscript preparation were performed by Claude Code with Opus 4.7 working as an AI assistant under author's supervision.