Data-Driven Reachability Analysis via Diffusion Models with PAC Guarantees

Reachability analysis is central to safety-critical control, robotics, and neural network verification, but classical computational methods, such as Hamilton--Jacobi reachability and set propagation, scale poorly with state dimension. Sampling-based methods have emerged as a promising alternative, often providing finite-sample guarantees that bound the probability-mass left uncovered. However, an explicit account of how the geometry of the initial set, the dynamics, and the sampling law affect the accuracy of the estimator is not fully available in the literature. We study this by casting sampling-based reachable-set recovery as geometric support estimation over a family of problems specified by an initial set, its dynamics, and a sampling law. First, we identify two regularity properties, positive reach of the initial set's complement and Lipschitz continuity of the dynamics, that together make recovery well-posed: a probability-mass coverage guarantee can be upgraded to accuracy $r$ in Hausdorff distance. Second, we bound the resulting sample complexity: recovery is achievable with $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\big((e^{3LT}/r)^n\big)$ samples, exponential in both the state dimension and the time horizon. Third, we show that neither can be removed: an minimax lower bound of $Ω\big((e^{LT}/r)^n\big)$ holds for every estimator, so the exponential dependence on dimension and the degradation over the horizon are both intrinsic, not artifacts of a particular method. Experiments on nonlinear systems confirm that adversarial sampling improves constants but not the scaling.

Neural network (NN) dynamics models and control policies achieve strong performance in robotics, but providing sound guarantees under uncertainty remains difficult, especially for closed-loop NN systems. Existing reachability tools provide formal over-approximations, yet are often non-differentiable, overly conservative, or too slow for modern learning and online planning pipelines. To address this, we present a parallelizable, differentiable reachability framework in JAX for continuous- and discrete-time systems with analytical and NN-based dynamics and controllers. Our framework combines Taylor-model flowpipe construction with CROWN-style linear bound propagation through a unified representation that preserves affine dependencies while supporting GPU-batched computation and automatic differentiation. Building on this reachability primitive, we develop (i) a certified training method that encourages reachability-friendly dynamics models and controllers, and (ii) a reachability-aware sampling-based MPC scheme with gradient-based refinement. Experiments on non-prehensile manipulation and quadrotor tasks, including hardware and higher-dimensional evaluations (up to 72D), demonstrate practical online planning while maintaining certified reachable-set over-approximations under bounded uncertainty.

We study finite horizon reachable set estimation for unknown discrete-time dynamical systems using only sampled state trajectories. Rather than treating scenario optimization as a black-box tool, we show how it can be tailored to reachable set estimation, where one must learn a family of sets based on whole trajectories, while preserving probabilistic guarantees on future trajectory inclusion for the entire horizon. To this end, we formulate a relaxed scenario program with slack variables that yields a tunable trade-off between reachable set size and out-of-sample trajectory inclusion over the horizon, thereby reducing sensitivity to outliers. Leveraging the recent results in adversarially robust scenario optimization, we then extend this formulation to account for bounded adversarial perturbations of the observed trajectories and derive a posteriori probabilistic guarantees on future trajectory inclusion. When probability distribution shifts in the Wasserstein distance occur, we obtain an explicit bound on how gracefully the theoretical probabilistic guarantees degrade. For different geometries, i.e., $p$-norm balls, ellipsoids, and zonotopes, we derive tractable convex reformulations and corroborate our theoretical results in simulation.