On the Limits of Sampling-Based Reachability: Geometry, Dynamics, and Sample Complexity

Reachability analysis is central to safety-critical control, robotics, and neural network verification, but classical computational methods, such as Hamilton--Jacobi reachability and set propagation, scale poorly with state dimension. Sampling-based methods have emerged as a promising alternative, often providing finite-sample guarantees that bound the probability-mass left uncovered. However, an explicit account of how the geometry of the initial set, the dynamics, and the sampling law affect the accuracy of the estimator is not fully available in the literature. We study this by casting sampling-based reachable-set recovery as geometric support estimation over a family of problems specified by an initial set, its dynamics, and a sampling law. First, we identify two regularity properties, positive reach of the initial set's complement and Lipschitz continuity of the dynamics, that together make recovery well-posed: a probability-mass coverage guarantee can be upgraded to accuracy $r$ in Hausdorff distance. Second, we bound the resulting sample complexity: recovery is achievable with $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\big((e^{3LT}/r)^n\big)$ samples, exponential in both the state dimension and the time horizon. Third, we show that neither can be removed: an minimax lower bound of $Ω\big((e^{LT}/r)^n\big)$ holds for every estimator, so the exponential dependence on dimension and the degradation over the horizon are both intrinsic, not artifacts of a particular method. Experiments on nonlinear systems confirm that adversarial sampling improves constants but not the scaling.