Temporal Dependencies in In-Context Learning: The Role of Induction Heads

In-context learning is governed by both temporal and semantic relationships, shaping how Large Language Models (LLMs) retrieve contextual information. Analogous to human episodic memory, where the retrieval of specific events is enabled by separating events that happened at different times, this work probes the ability of various pretrained LLMs, including transformer and state-space models, to differentiate and retrieve temporally separated events. Specifically, we prompted models with sequences containing multiple presentations of the same token, which reappears at the sequence end. By fixing the positions of these repeated tokens and permuting all others, we removed semantic confounds and isolated temporal effects on next-token prediction. Across diverse sequences, models consistently placed the highest probabilities on tokens following a repeated token, but with a notable bias for those nearest the beginning or end of the input. An ablation experiment linked this phenomenon in transformers to induction heads. Extending the analysis to unique semantic contexts with partial overlap further demonstrated that memories embedded in the middle of a prompt are retrieved less reliably. Despite architectural differences, state-space and transformer models showed comparable temporal biases. Our findings deepen the understanding of temporal biases in in-context learning and offer an illustration of how these biases can enable temporal separation and episodic retrieval.

In-context learning \ -- performing tasks based on examples given in the prompt \ -- is an important capability that has emerged in large language models and has received significant attention in both theory and practice. Existing theoretical work often focuses on settings where the learning uses information purely from the prompt. However, many practical instances of in-context learning require the model to retrieve factual knowledge stored in the model's parameters, with the context serving to identify which knowledge is relevant. In this work, we study how in-context learning leverages factual knowledge recall. We formalize this behavior by introducing the in-context factual recall (IC-recall) task, where a transformer is provided a context of (subject, answer) pairs generated from a hidden relation, along with a query subject, and must both infer this hidden relation and retrieve the corresponding answer. Factual knowledge is modeled by the transformer having access to a simple pre-constructed MLP associative memory storing (subject, relation, answer) triplets. We analyze the supervised fine-tuning dynamics of a one-layer transformer on IC-recall data and prove that the model successfully performs IC-recall by converging to a particular pairwise attention pattern. This fine-tuning stage requires a very small number of samples \ -- only polylogarithmic in the number of stored knowledge triplets. Experiments verify our theoretical predictions and show that the pairwise attention pattern emerges even when the MLP layer is pretrained instead of constructed.

Induction heads are attention circuits believed to underlie in-context learning in transformers, yet a precise characterization of the estimators they implement remains elusive. We study transformers trained on order-$k$ Markov chains and identify two complementary smoothing mechanisms. First, at finite attention-weight scale, the circuit implements a soft context-matching estimator: it aggregates contributions from exact and partial context matches, weighted exponentially by their overlap, and induces a data-dependent interpolation across context orders analogous to Jelinek-Mercer smoothing. Second, a beginning-of-sequence (BOS) token induces additive pseudo-counts, recovering Dirichlet-style smoothing. We construct a disentangled transformer implementing both mechanisms and show that trained transformers recover the predicted attention patterns. Across settings where pseudo-count smoothing is optimal or lower-order contexts provide structured evidence, trained transformers match or outperform classical count-based baselines. Our results bridge mechanistic interpretability of induction heads with classical statistical smoothing, revealing that transformers learn to regularize in-context estimation rather than simply count.