What Makes a Sale? Simulating End-to-End Seller--Buyer Retail Dynamics with LLM Agents

We present SalesSim, a framework and testbed for evaluating the ability of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) to simulate realistic, persona-driven customer behavior in multi-turn, multi-modal, tool-augmented online retail conversations. Unlike prior work that treat user simulation as surface-level dialogue generation, SalesSim models retail interaction and decision-making as a grounded, agentic process, where shoppers with diverse backgrounds, preferences, and dealbreakers interact with a sales agent, seek clarifications, and make informed purchasing decisions. For evaluation, we design a suite of metrics centered on decision alignment, measuring the consistency between the simulator's actions and its persona specifications, as well as conversational quality. We find several behavioral gaps after benchmarking 6 open and closed-source state-of-the-art models. First, while models produce fluent conversations, they display significantly lower lexical diversity and overdisclosure of criteria across personas compared to human conversations. Second, models tend to be persuaded by sales agent suggestions and drift from persona specifications. Even the strongest model achieves less than 79% average alignment with its underlying persona specifications. To make progress on these limitations, we propose UserGRPO, a multi-turn, multi-objective reinforcement learning recipe to optimize both conversational fluency and decision alignment under persona specifications. Our experiments demonstrate that UserGRPO boosts decision alignment of the baseline model by 13.8% while improving conversational quality. By introducing SalesSim, we provide a new testbed for the community to investigate and improve the adherence of user simulators in goal-oriented settings.

LLM-based web agents can navigate live storefronts, yet they often collapse to a single "average buyer" policy, failing to capture the heterogeneous and distributional nature of real buyer populations. Existing personalization methods rely on hand-crafted prompt-based personas that are brittle, difficult to scale, context-inefficient, and unable to faithfully represent population-level behavior. We introduce SimPersona, a novel framework that learns discrete buyer types from historical traffic and exposes them to LLM-based web agents as compact persona tokens. Given raw clickstreams, a behavior-aware VQ-VAE induces a discrete buyer-type space that captures the statistical structure of real buyer behavior and merchant-specific buyer population distributions. To provide behavior-specific guidance to LLM-based web agents, SimPersona maps each learned buyer type to a dedicated persona token in the LLM agent vocabulary and fine-tunes the agent with these tokens on real browsing traces. At inference, each synthetic buyer is assigned to a learned buyer type with a single encoder forward pass, requiring no retraining or store-specific prompt engineering. For population-level simulation, SimPersona samples buyer types from each merchant's empirical distribution over the learned VQ-VAE codebook and instantiates agents with the corresponding persona tokens, preserving merchant-specific buyer population distributions. Evaluated on $8.37$M buyers across $42$ held-out live storefronts, SimPersona achieves $78\%$ conversion-rate alignment with real buyers, exhibits interpretable behavioral variation across buyer types, and outperforms a baseline with $8\times$ more parameters on goal-oriented shopping tasks. We further release an open-source data pipeline that converts raw e-commerce event logs into buyer representations and agent-training traces.

Large language model (LLM) agents have made rapid progress on short-horizon, well-scoped tasks, yet their ability to sustain coherent decisions in dynamic long-horizon environments remains uncertain. We introduce RetailBench, a data-grounded simulation benchmark for evaluating tool-using LLM agents in single-store supermarket operation. RetailBench models retail management as a partially observable decision process and is designed to support thousand-day-scale simulations. In this environment, agents must manage pricing, replenishment, supplier selection, shelf assortment, inventory aging, customer feedback, external events, and cash-flow constraints. We evaluate seven contemporary LLMs under representative agent frameworks over a 180-day evaluation horizon and compare them with a privileged oracle policy. Results show substantial variation across models: only a small subset survives the full evaluation horizon, and even the strongest LLM runs remain substantially behind the oracle policy in final net worth and sales outcomes. Behavioral analysis attributes these gaps to incomplete evidence acquisition, surface-level decision making, and the lack of a consistent long-horizon policy. RetailBench provides a controlled testbed for studying reliable autonomy in economically grounded long-horizon decision-making.