Extending Tabular Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models for Time-Series Data Generation

Diffusion-based generators set the current state of the art for synthetic tabular data. These methods approach but rarely exceed real-data utility, and closing this synthetic-real gap has so far been pursued exclusively at training time, via architectural advances, scaling, and retraining of monolithic generators. The inference-time alternative, i.e., refining the outputs of a pre-trained backbone with parameters left untouched, has remained largely unexplored for tabular synthesis. We introduce TARDIS (Tabular generation through Refinement, Distillation, and Inference-time Sampling), an inference-time refinement framework that operates on a frozen pre-trained backbone, configured per dataset by a Tree-structured Parzen Estimator search over score-level guidance during reverse diffusion, with each trial's objective set by an inner grid search over post-hoc sample selectors and an optional soft-label distillation step. The search space encodes a single mathematical pattern we name Bidirectional Chamfer Refinement (BCR): the symmetric Chamfer functional between synthetic and real samples is minimized both continuously, via a score-level gradient, and discretely, via batch-ranking post-generation. The per-dataset search recovers BCR-aligned configurations on most datasets, evidence for BCR as the dominant refinement pattern. Across 15 binary, multiclass, and regression benchmarks TARDIS achieves a median +8.6% downstream-task improvement over models trained on real data (95% CI [+3.3, +16.4], Wilcoxon p=0.016, 11/15 strict wins) and improves over the TabDiff backbone on all 15 datasets (mean +12.9%, p<10^-4), matching the backbone on manifold fidelity, diversity, and sample-level privacy. Inference-time refinement of a pre-trained tabular diffusion backbone reaches and exceeds real-data utility in 1 to 80 minutes on a single consumer-grade GPU.

Time-series data augmentation plays a crucial role in regression-oriented forecasting tasks, where limited data restricts the performance of deep learning models. While Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have shown promise in synthetic time-series generation, existing approaches primarily focus on matching marginal data distributions and often overlook the temporal dynamics that naturally exist in the original multivariate time series. When generating multivariate time series, this mismatch leads to distribution shift and temporal drift, thereby degrading the fidelity of the synthetic sequences. In this work, we propose a model-agnostic Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-based framework to mitigate distribution shift and preserve temporal dynamics in synthetic time series. We provide a theoretical analysis of how conditional generative models accumulate deviations under sequential generation and demonstrate that the MCMC algorithm can correct these discrepancies by enforcing consistency with empirical transition statistics between neighboring time points. Extensive experiments on the Lorenz, Licor, ETTh, and ILI datasets using RCGAN, GCWGAN, TimeGAN, SigCWGAN, and AECGAN demonstrate that the proposed MCMC framework consistently improves autocorrelation alignment, skewness error, kurtosis error, R$^2$, discriminative score, and predictive score. These results suggest that synthetic time series consistent with the original data require explicit preservation of transition laws rather than solely relying on adversarial distribution matching, thereby offering a principled direction for improving generative modeling of time-series data.

Synthetic sequential tabular data are increasingly used for privacy-preserving data sharing and research, yet conventional tabular metrics often overlook temporal structure. Existing single-table and relational evaluation protocols largely collapse records into static distributions, leaving key temporal properties insufficiently evaluated. We introduce Seq2Synth, a unified benchmark for assessing these properties. Its taxonomy characterizes temporal and schema properties to determine applicable evaluations, covering timestamp, cross-sectional, longitudinal, and structural fidelity, alongside trajectory-aware utility and privacy. Across seven core datasets from a 13-dataset benchmark and eight generators, models with near-perfect static fidelity still violate basic temporal constraints, producing duplicate timestamps, irregular intervals, and incomplete observation grids. Moreover, static and temporal-aware rankings diverge substantially, showing that temporal fidelity must be evaluated directly rather than inferred from static or relational scores. Project page and online appendices are available at: https://seq2synth.github.io/.