When Does Context Help? A Systematic Study of Target-Conditional Molecular Property Prediction

Accurate molecular property prediction is central to drug discovery, catalysis, and process design, yet real-world applications are often limited by small datasets. Molecular foundation models provide a promising direction by learning transferable molecular representations; however, they typically involve task-specific fine-tuning, require machine learning expertise, and often fail to outperform classical baselines. Tabular foundation models (TFMs) offer a fundamentally different paradigm: they perform predictions through in-context learning, enabling inference without task-specific training. Here, we evaluate TFMs in the low- to medium-data regime across both standardized pharmaceutical benchmarks and chemical engineering datasets. We evaluate both frozen molecular foundation model representations, as well as classical descriptors and fingerprints. Across the benchmarks, the approach shows excellent predictive performance while reducing computational cost, compared to fine-tuning, with these advantages also transferring to practical engineering data settings. In particular, combining TFMs with CheMeleon embeddings yields up to 100% win rates on 30 MoleculeACE tasks, while compact RDKit2d and Mordred descriptors provide strong descriptor-based alternatives. Molecular representation emerges as a key determinant in TFM performance, with molecular foundation model embeddings and 2D descriptor sets both providing substantial gains over classic molecular fingerprints on many tasks. These results suggest that in-context learning with TFMs provides a highly accurate and cost-efficient alternative for property prediction in practical applications.

Molecular property prediction requires representations that generalize from limited labeled data to structurally novel compounds. Existing molecular pretraining methods often rely on a single view: graph-based approaches model atom-bond topology but provide limited fragment-level supervision, whereas fingerprint descriptors encode chemical patterns but are typically used as fixed auxiliary features. We propose HiFi-Mol, a multi-view framework that separately pretrains a hierarchical graph encoder and a contextualized fingerprint encoder before downstream integration. The graph branch uses fragment-aware masking with multi-resolution supervision to capture substructure-aware representations, while the fingerprint branch tokenizes active entries from seven fingerprint families and applies masked language modeling to learn contextualized embeddings. During fine-tuning, HiFi-Mol combines projected multi-resolution graph features with fingerprint embeddings for downstream prediction. Evaluated on MoleculeNet benchmarks under the scaffold split, HiFi-Mol achieves a 2.77% improvement in average ROC-AUC over the best baseline across eight classification tasks while maintaining competitive performance on three regression tasks. Further analyses reveal that fragment-aware masking improves graph representation quality, and classification results demonstrate dataset-dependent strengths of the individual graph and fingerprint variants, confirming that the two views provide complementary predictive signals.

Predicting biomolecular properties from limited labeled data is a central bottleneck in protein engineering and small-molecule design. As strong pretrained encoders now supply rich fixed-length representations, the difficulty has shifted from representation learning to building a data-efficient predictor for the few-shot regime. Tabular foundation models such as TabPFN and TabICL are unlikely candidates for this role: they are in-context learners pretrained on synthetic tables drawn from random causal graphs, a generative prior with no obvious correspondence to the processes that produce protein sequences or molecular graphs. That this tabular, causal inductive bias should transfer to biomolecular data at all is counter-intuitive, yet we find it does. Treating each method as a predictor-representation pair, we evaluate across two domains. We find that on protein fitness regression tasks these in-context learning models coupled with ESM Cambrian representations achieve or exceed state-of-the-art results on ProteinGym, and outperform task-specific supervised regressors on a diverse esterase catalytic activity dataset. For small-molecule classification with ECFP/RDKit descriptors, no single predictor-representation pairing dominates across TDC ADMET, MoleculeNet, FS-Mol, and DrugOOD, but they are competitive with the existing task-specific state-of-the-art. Crucially, on both protein and small-molecule few-shot tasks, these predictor-representation pairs offer strong performance. We conclude that tabular foundation models can be strong biomolecular predictors, but only when coupled with expressive representations.