cs.DLApr 8, 2026

The Shrinking Lifespan of LLMs in Science

Authors: Ana Trišović

Organizations: Computer Science & Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 32 Vassar St, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA

Abstract

Scaling laws describe how language model capabilities grow with compute and data, but say nothing about how long a model matters once released. We introduce time-to-peak and lifespan as measures of model obsolescence and use them to characterize the scientific adoption trajectories of 62 LLMs across more than 108k citing papers (2019-2025), separating active adoption from background citation to recover per-model trajectories that citation counts cannot resolve. We find that a model's longevity is shaped more by when it was released than by its characteristics: release year predicts time-to-peak and lifespan more strongly than architecture, openness, or scale. LLM adoption follows an inverted-U curve (rising after release, peaking, and then declining), but this pattern is rapidly compressing. Each successive release year is associated with a 27% shorter time-to-peak and a 23% shorter lifespan (p<0.001p < 0.001), robust to minimum-age thresholds and controls for model size. These adoption-side dynamics are invisible to scaling laws and suggest that specialization on any single model may be a depreciating investment, with costs falling on reproducibility and migration.

Figures & tables

Appendix figures & tables19 assets

Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.

Appendix

Explore similar work

Sep 4, 2026

Model Retirement Creates Reproducibility Risk in Biomedical AI Publications

Background. Large language models (LLMs) are being adopted in biomedical research at a rapid and accelerating pace, yet commercial services that host many widely used models operate under deprecation schedules that can complicate scientific reproducibility. Methods. We searched PubMed for original research articles from 2022 through March 2026 that applied a specific LLM to a biomedical task. An extraction agent identified model names from 61,077 article abstracts with human reviewers validating a subset for extraction accuracy. Extracted model names were normalized to canonical model identifiers. Lifecycle data (release date, retirement date, status) were compiled for the 50 most frequently used models. Results. We identified 8,931 paper-model mentions spanning 5,242 unique publications after restricting the analysis to the 50 most frequently used models. Among these mentions, 77.7% cited a commercial closed-weight model. Overall, 42% involved a model that was already retired by the time of official publication or is scheduled to retire within two years of publication. The median interval from publication to model retirement was 538 days. Conclusion. Many biomedical publications using LLMs are on a trajectory toward computational non-reproducibility after publication. Model deprecation should be treated as a core reporting and preservation issue for biomedical research.
Oct 19, 2026

Accelerated Drift of Scientific Prose in the LLM Era: Evidence from an Interrupted Time-Series Analysis

Every scientific text is embedded in the writing norms of its time: it reflects earlier publications while also shaping the texts that follow. The growing use of LLM-based writing tools introduces a new factor in this evolving system, but the linguistic changes coinciding with their emergence remain insufficiently understood. We investigate whether the trajectories of scientific-preprint writing changed in rate or direction after conversational LLMs became publicly accessible, using the release of ChatGPT in November 2022 as the observational breakpoint. We compare pre- and post-2022 trajectories across vocabulary, punctuation, readability, and syntax in abstracts from arXiv's artificial intelligence, statistics, and quantitative biology categories and from medRxiv. Using interrupted time-series regression, we find substantial post-2022 changes across multiple feature families and research domains, including increases in average word length, reduced formula-based readability, and declines in maximum dependency-tree depth and sentence-level depth variation. Individual features follow different dynamics: some lexical markers accelerate persistently, while others rise and then recede. Our findings show that isolated marker frequencies capture only part of the shift: changes in the rate, direction, and structure of linguistic trajectories provide complementary evidence of broader post-2022 change in scientific-preprint writing. More broadly, these findings motivate monitoring scientific writing as a multidimensional, evolving system rather than through a fixed set of LLM-associated markers.
Apr 10, 2025

Large language models reshape the language of science

Scientific language is a central infrastructure of knowledge production, but it remains unclear whether large language models (LLMs) are altering not only how scientists write, but also how scientific knowledge is communicated and accessed. Here we analyze 21.36 million scientific abstracts published between 2020 and 2024, together with historical records from major journals, to trace recent changes in the language of science. We identify a marked turning point in 2024, when scientific writing shows a sharp increase in lexical complexity alongside a decline in syntactic complexity. This shift is pervasive across disciplines and journal tiers, and is more pronounced in texts by scholars working in non-native English contexts, especially those from language backgrounds that differ more typologically from English. Controlled polishing experiments confirm that LLMs reproduce this pattern by favoring more lexically dense and syntactically compressed expression. We further show why this linguistic shift matters: it may widen the distance between scientific discourse and public-facing language, while also helping scholars in non-native English contexts navigate English-language publishing requirements. These findings suggest that LLMs may broaden participation in scientific authorship while narrowing the accessibility of scientific communication, making them a new force in the linguistic infrastructure of science.