Sentiment Classification of Gaza War Headlines: A Comparative Analysis of Large Language Models and Arabic Fine-Tuned BERT Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly shaping how we consume information and form our worldview. This raises concerns beyond bias in AI: do LLMs grasp the emotional nuances conveyed via textual framing? In this work, we empirically evaluate how well an array of LLMs aligns with human emotional perception. Considering news headlines covering political and geopolitical conflicts, both human participants (n = 3011, a representative sample of the U.K. adult population, via a YouGov survey) and seven LLMs answered whether headlines evoked sympathy for a specified side in a conflict. We find that the correlation between AI and human evaluations varies across models, ranging from very high (0.789, GPT-5.2) to medium (0.4 ,Mistral Large 2512). Crucially, the leading models are broadly aligned with human judgments across all demographic subgroups, including age, gender, level of education, prior geopolitical knowledge, and participants' predispositions regarding the conflict, although there are statistically significant differences between groups. This research, with its robust design and large, demographically diverse dataset, offers the most comprehensive evaluation of LLMs' comprehension of news framing to date. Findings highlight an important, often-ignored aspect of differential alignment: even when aggregate performance is high, AI alignment is not universal -- it may correspond differently with demographic features and cultural norms. Considering or ignoring the need for differential alignment may therefore have significant implications for the development of ethical and useful AI systems.

AI models are already deployed in societies affected by armed conflict, and journalists, humanitarian workers, governments and ordinary citizens rely on them for information or for their work processes. No established practice exists for checking whether their outputs can make those conflicts worse. We tested nine model configurations from four providers (OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepSeek, xAI) on 90 multi-turn scenarios designed to surface misaligned behaviour in conflict contexts: false equivalence between documented atrocities, denial of genocide, and failure to recognise ethnic slurs, among others. When such outputs feed into journalism, humanitarian reporting, or public debate, they can deepen divisions in fragile societies. Failure rates span 6% to 47% between the best and worst performing models, which makes model choice a safety question in its own right and when users pushed for ``balance'' in cases where international courts have already assigned responsibility, five of nine configurations failed 80 to 100 percent of the time. We release the first evaluation framework for this domain and propose adding it to alignment evaluation portfolios.

As LLMs enter conflict monitoring, understanding systematic distortions in their outputs is critical for humanitarian accountability. We evaluate four vanilla open-weight models Gemma 3 4B, Llama 3.2 3B, Mistral 7B, and OLMo 2 7B and two domain-adapted models, AfroConfliBERT and AfroConfliLLAMA, on Nigeria and Cameroon conflict-event classification against ACLED, a gold-standard dataset with multi-stage verification. We find a bifurcated divergence in normative directionality. Open-weight models exhibit statistically significant False Illegitimation bias: Gemma misclassifies to 18.29% of legitimate battles as civilian-targeted violence while making zero False Legitimation errors. By contrast, AfroConfliBERT and AfroConfliLLAMA achieve near-directional neutrality, with Legitimization Bias differences indistinguishable from zero. Yet domain adaptation does not eliminate actor-based selection bias. Both adapted models show statistically significant actor bias comparable to vanilla LLMs; in Nigeria, state actors are legitimized 36.5% more often than non-state actors in identical tactical contexts. Open-weight outputs are also fragile to geography-specific lexical framing: delegitimizing phrases produce flip rates up to 66.7% in Cameroon and 34.2% in Nigeria, while perturbations salient in one context may not matter in another. Error trace profiling shows models mask normative bias through unfaithful rationale confabulations. In contrast, AfroConfliBERT and AfroConfliLLAMA are largely robust, with near-zero flip rates across perturbation categories. Overall, current models are not ready for unsupervised deployment in conflict monitoring. We call for fairness-aware fine-tuning to reduce actor-based selection bias, mandatory adversarial robustness evaluation against lexical manipulation, and context-specific human-in-the-loop oversight calibrated to regional difficulty.