High-dimensional inference for the γ-ray sky with differentiable programming

Gaussian process (GP) inference in Python is dominated by libraries such as GPyTorch and GPflow, which are built on deep-learning frameworks and inherit their dispatch overhead and dependency footprint. We present LightGP, a dependency-free C++17 library for GP regression with Python bindings, supporting Apple Metal and NVIDIA CUDA backends alongside tuned CPU paths via Apple Accelerate and OpenBLAS. LightGP provides four inference paths -- exact Cholesky, matrix-free conjugate gradients, sparse variational free energy, and structured kernel interpolation with FFT -- covering problems from $N{=}100$ to $N{=}500{,}000$. On an Apple M4, LightGP CPU is 2.6--8.7$\times$ faster than GPyTorch CPU for exact GP and ${\sim}1.5\times$ faster for sparse GP at every scale tested. On an NVIDIA RTX~3060, LightGP CUDA is 2.3--6.7$\times$ faster than GPyTorch CUDA for exact GP up to $N{=}2{,}048$, with GPyTorch closing the gap at $N{=}4{,}096$. A fused matrix-free kernel-vector product on Metal achieves 32$\times$ over the explicit path at $N{=}20{,}000$ with $O(N)$ memory, and an FFT-accelerated SKI matvec via Accelerate vDSP runs in sub-millisecond time at $N{=}200{,}000$. LightGP compiles as a single static library with zero external dependencies and is installable via \texttt{pip install lightgp

Gradient estimation -- the task of computing the gradient of the expected value of a probabilistic program -- has diverse applications in scientific computing, but is notoriously difficult because of issues such as high-dimensional integration, discrete random choices, and complex stochastic dependencies. This article introduces gradient inference, a new approach to developing sound and efficient gradient estimators for probabilistic programs. Gradient inference rests on a formal reduction from a gradient estimation problem to a closely related probabilistic inference problem, whose solution can be differentiated to obtain a gradient estimator. This inference problem is obtained by applying two powerful statistical operations -- coupling and factorization -- to the input probabilistic program. Our reduction lets us leverage the rich toolkit of probabilistic inference algorithms to design novel gradient estimators that extend and improve upon existing methods. We introduce GradInf, a probabilistic programming system that facilitates the sound and automated implementation of gradient inference. GradInf is centered around programmable source-to-source transformations for coupling and factorizing higher-order probabilistic programs, whose soundness is proven in terms of a denotational semantics. Key to our development is the use of information-flow typing to allow random choices in a probabilistic program to be factored out and partially evaluated, which improves our ability to deploy sophisticated probabilistic inference algorithms. The resulting system offers practitioners a principled framework for designing gradient estimators. We apply GradInf to several challenging case studies, showing that it can express prominent gradient estimators from the literature and enables the construction of new state-of-the-art estimators that outperform the best existing baselines.

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for Bayesian time-series modeling, yet their cubic computational cost remains a severe barrier for application to long, high-cadence datasets in astronomy. While specialized scalable solvers like Celerite elegantly reduce this scaling to linear time, repeatedly evaluating the exact likelihood during iterative Bayesian sampling is a bottleneck for developing more complex models, like hierarchical or additive models in which Celerite is only one component. To make this inference computationally tractable, we introduce a generative surrogate framework. By utilizing a Variational Autoencoder (VAE) to learn a compressed representation of the Celerite prior, we map highly correlated stochastic dependencies into a low-dimensional, isotropic manifold. This transition completely bypasses exact covariance operations, shifting the computational burden to a rapid neural network forward pass. Through an extensive simulation study, we show that the generative surrogate accurately reproduces the structural fidelity of exact physical kernels like Celerite. Finally, we demonstrate embedding our VAE approximation into an additive model that combines Celerite and a hidden Markov model (HMM) for stellar flare detection in time series data of stars. We evaluate the joint VAE+HMM architecture against the exact Celerite+HMM framework on empirical astrophysical time series and demonstrate that the proposed methodology achieves significant reductions in computational time, enabling the rigorous, large-scale characterization of stellar flares across massive data archives.