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12 papers in the last four weeks, up 9% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

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  1. Diagnosing and Improving Probabilistic Reasoning in Large Language Models

    Sep 29, 2026Huaman Sun, Dingcheng Wang, Jason Hartline +1LLM Reasoning StrategiesProbabilistic Model

    Department of Computer Science Northwestern University Evanston, IL 60201, USA

  2. Inductive Feedback for Mixed-Policy Distillation

    Sep 28, 2026Amir Moeini, Huaijiang Zhu, Daniel Havir +1FeedbackAutoregressive Rollout

    Alquist Robotics · University of Virginia

  3. GT-PSSM: Unified Probabilistic Framework for Stochastic Dynamics Modeling and Dependency Learning in Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection

    Sep 28, 2026Wonmo Koo, Jaeyeong Lee, Taeseong Yoon +1Time-Series Anomaly DetectionLong-Range Temporal Dependencies

    KAIST Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  4. Laya as a Typed Probabilistic Assessor: An Independent Reproduction and a Preregistered Study of Calibration and Selective Escalation

    Sep 27, 2026Gowthamkumar NandakishoreEscalationPost-Hoc

  5. Decision Hijacking: Prompt Injection Attacks on Jev's Typed Probabilistic Decisions

    Sep 23, 2026Tiantong Wu, Wei Yang Bryan LimIndirect Prompt InjectionHijacking

    Nanyang Technological University Singapore

  6. Probabilistic Modelling of Operational Design Domains, A New Approach for Testing AI Systems

    Sep 21, 2026Hans-Werner WiesbrockProbabilistic ModelOntology

    ITPower Solutions GmbH Kolonnenstrasse 26 10829 Berlin, Germany

  7. BayesianGS-SLAM: Uncertainty-Aware Neural Rendering SLAM via Probabilistic Formulation

    Sep 21, 2026Kyeongsu Kang, Seongbo Ha, Sibaek Lee +1Gaussian Splatting Simultaneous Localization And Mapping SystemsOrb-Slam2

    Department of Intelligent Robotics, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon, South Korea

  8. Contributions to the hierarchy of probabilistic languages

    Sep 20, 2026Lothar Sebastian Krapp, Remo NitschkeContext-Free GrammarsProbabilistic Model

    Institut für Interdisziplinäre Sprachevolutionswissenschaft, Universität Zürich, Switzerland · Fachbereich Mathematik und Statistik, Universität Konstanz, Germany

  9. PAA: The Probabilistic Allen Algebra: A Generative and Complete Probabilistic Extension of Allen's Interval Relations

    Sep 17, 2026Julian EggertProbabilistic ModelProbability

    Honda Research Institute Europe, Offenbach, Germany · Honda Research Institute, Carl-Legien-Str. 30, 63073 Offenbach, Germany.

  10. Calibrated Probabilistic Obstruction Reasoning with Vision-Language Models for Grasping in Clutter

    Sep 16, 2026Thanh-Tuan Tran, Ngoc-Chien Chu, Thanh Nguyen Canh +3Robotic GraspingPerception Gap

    University of Engineering and Technology, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, 10000, Vietnam · School of Information Science, Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Ishikawa, 923-1211, Japan · Department of Robotics, Hanyang University, Gyeonggi-do, 15588, Korea

  11. ThinkFlow: Self-Evolving Probabilistic Latent Memory for Lifelong Conversational Agents

    Sep 15, 2026Cai Ke, Xin Liu, Han Zhang +6Dialogue BenchmarksCognitive Science

    Pengcheng Laboratory, China · Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, China · China Unicom Greater Bay Area Innovation Institute, China

  12. Structural priors for data-efficient language learning

    Sep 12, 2026Yana Veitsman, Jonas Mayer Martins, Jonathan Lautenschlager +1Large Language Model PretrainingLoss Function

    University of Göttingen, Germany

  13. Induction and Inquiry via Probabilistic Reasoning over Language and Code

    Sep 1, 2026Wasu Top Piriyakulkij, Sam Acquaviva, Cassidy Langenfeld +2InductionLLM Reasoning Strategies

    1Cornell University · 2Massachusetts Institute of Technology

  14. Probabilistic Model Checking of Autoregressive Neural Sequence Models

    Sep 1, 2026Helge Spieker, Dennis Gross, Arnaud GotliebProbabilistic Model CheckingProbabilistic Model

    Simula Research Laboratory, Oslo, Norway

  15. On the Complexity of the Compatibility Problem for Succinctly Encoded Conditional Distributions

    Aug 31, 2026Guy EmersonConditional DistributionProbabilistic Model

  16. Learning the Geometry of Admissible Hypotheses through Inductive Bias in Training Distributions

    Aug 31, 2026James Crowley, Faez Ahmed, Anton van BeekPartial Differential EquationsHypothesis Class

    School of Mechanical and Material Engineering University College Dublin · Department of Mechanical Engineering Massachusets Institute of Technology

  17. PAWBench: How Far Are We from Probabilistically Aligned World Modeling?

    Aug 27, 2026Yuandong Pu, Le Zhuo, Sayak Paul +11Generative Video ModelsPhysical Plausibility

    Shanghai Jiao Tong University · Shanghai AI Laboratory · Krea AI +4

  18. Foundations of MT-PDCL: Measure-Theoretic Probabilistic Definite Clause Logic

    Aug 13, 2026Costin Bădică, Amelia BădicăProbabilistic Model

    Department of Computers and Information Technology University of Craiova Craiova, Romania · Department of Business Informatics University of Craiova Craiova, Romania

  19. A Compositional Theory of Curvature in Probabilistic Circuits

    Aug 13, 2026Hrithik Suresh, Sahil Sidheekh, Shelar Parth Vijay +3Sharpness-Aware MinimizationProbabilistic Model

    Mehta Family School of Data Science and Artificial Intelligence, Department of Data Science, Indian Institute of Technology Palakkad, Kerala, India · Erik Jonsson School of Engineering & Computer Science, The University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX, USA · AT&T CDO

  20. Uncertainty-Aware Probabilistic Constrained Clustering from Entangled Pairwise Supervision

    Aug 12, 2026Shaojie Zhang, Ke ChenClusteringProbabilistic Model

    Department of Computer Science, The University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, U.K.

  21. Every pooling rule has its world: matching probability combination rules to situations and stakes

    Aug 11, 2026Tanel Tammet, Priit Järv, Dirk DraheimProbabilityProbabilistic Model

    Tallinn University of Technology

  22. Beyond Direct Identifiers: Probabilistic Privacy Risk Estimation for Privacy-Conscious LLM Query Delegation

    Aug 10, 2026Li Siyan, Zhou Yu, Julia HirschbergPrivacyAnonymization

    Department of Computer Science Columbia University

  23. A Probabilistic Circuit-Induced Pseudo-Metric for Out-of-Distribution Detection

    Aug 10, 2026Bhumika K, Vidhya S, Narayanan C KrishnanOut-Of-Distribution DetectionIn-Distribution

    Mehta Family School of Data Science and Artificial Intelligence Indian Institute of Technology Palakkad Palakkad, Kerala, India

  24. From probability to causality in probabilistic logic programming

    Aug 7, 2026Zora Wurm, Kilian Rückschloß, Felix WeitkämperCausal ReasoningProbabilistic Model

    Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Oettingenstraße 67, 80538 München · Eberhard-Karls-Universität Tübingen, Auf der Morgenstelle 10, 72076 Tübingen · German University of Digital Science, Marlene-Dietrich-Allee 14, 14482 Potsdam

  25. DocMemo: Dynamic Evidence Discovery via Probabilistic Memory-Guided Retrieval for Multi-Modal Document Understanding

    Aug 7, 2026Hanshu Yao, Janfeng Zhong, Niu Lian +1DocumentMulti-Hop Reasoning

    1Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen · 2Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University

  26. A Transferable Autologistic Model for Predicting Rare Failures in Heterogeneous Equipment

    Aug 7, 2026Islam Benamirouche, Djemel Ziou, Feriel FassPredictive MaintenanceProbabilistic Model

    Département d’informatique, Université de Sherbrooke, 2500 boulevard de l’Université, Sherbrooke, J1N 3C6, QC, Canada

  27. PPDL: LLM-Based Flows as Probabilistic Programs

    Aug 5, 2026Louis Mandel, Guillaume Baudart, Mandana Vaziri +1Large Language Model UncertaintyLarge Language Model Workflows

    IBM, New York, USA · Université Paris Cité, Inria, CNRS, IRIF, France

  28. Diverse and Plausible Algorithmic Recourse via Tractable Recourse Distributions

    Aug 5, 2026Anagha Sabu, Hrithik Suresh, Narayanan C. KrishnanAlgorithmic CoresDistributions

    Mehta Family School of Data Science and Artificial Intelligence Indian Institute of Technology Palakkad Palakkad, Kerala, India

  29. Tensor Probabilistic Model Checking of Finite-Horizon Markov Chains (Extended Version)

    Aug 1, 2026Jianlin Li, Nick Guo, Peter Ye +1Probabilistic Model CheckingMarkov

    David R. Cheriton School of Computer Science University of Waterloo, Canada

  30. Leak It: Per-Document Extraction Beyond Aggregate Membership Inference

    Jul 31, 2026Victor MaricatoLeakageDisclosures

    Karolinska Institutet, Sweden

  31. Schrödinger's Cat: Probabilistic Representation and Prediction of Potential Scene Kinematics

    Jul 28, 2026Timy Phan, Jannik Wiese, Björn OmmerLatent TrajectoriesGenerative Video Models

  32. Generating Bearing Vibration Signals at User-Specified Fault Probabilities Using PR-GAN and Counterfactual Methods

    Jul 21, 2026Seyed Mohammadreza Alavi, Ardeshir Shojaeinasab, Reza Jalayer +2VibrationFault Diagnosis

    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Victoria, Victoria BC, Canada · FAST-Lab, Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences, Tampere University, Korkeakoulunkatu 7, 33720 Tampere, Finland +1

  33. RAMP: Recognition parametrisation by Amortised Message Passing

    Jul 21, 2026Lior Fox, Kai Biegun, James Heald +31B ParametersLatent Variable

    1Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit · Centre for Artificial Intelligence University College London

  34. Deep and Probabilistic Models for Gene Regulatory Network Inference

    Jul 17, 2026Claudia Skok GibbsRegulatory NetworksGenome-Wide Association Study

    Center for Data Science New York University

  35. Probabilistic Physics-Informed Neural Networks for Estimating Heterogeneous Elastic Properties from Low-Resolution and Noisy Displacement Data

    Jul 16, 2026Tatthapong Srikitrungruang, Jaesung LeeParametric Physics-Informed Neural NetworkBayesian Inverse Problems

    Wm Michael Barnes 64 Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA

  36. Probabilistic Extension of Neuro-Symbolic AGI Robots based on Belnap's Typed Intensional FOL

    Jul 12, 2026Zoran MajkicNeuro-Symbolic FrameworkProbabilistic Model

    ISRST, Tallahassee, FL, USA

  37. PeTeR: Post-Training Robustification of Probabilistic Circuits

    Jul 8, 2026Adrian Ciotinga, Yeming Dai, YooJung ChoiDistributionally-Robust OptimizationProbabilistic Model

    School of Computing and Augmented Intelligence, Arizona State University

  38. Set-Inclusive Uncertainty Modeling for Robust Brain Tumor Segmentation

    Jun 29, 2026Seunghun Baek, Jihwan Park, Jaeyoon Sim +3Brain Tumor SegmentationMagnetic Resonance Imaging

    Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, South Korea

  39. Propagation ofInterval Belief Structures andImprecise Copulas for~Neural Network Verification

    Jun 29, 2026Francesc Pifarre-Esquerda, Eric Goubault, Sylvie PutotNeural Network VerificationGaussian Copula

    LIX · LIX, CNRS, École polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Palaiseau, France · X-DEP-INFO

  40. Data-Driven Energy-Based Learning via Gibbs Measures on Hierarchical Structures

    Jun 29, 2026L. U. Abdullaev, F. Herrera, U. A. Rozikov +1GibbsTransition Learning

    National University of Singapore, Singapore · Department of Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence, University of Granada, E-18071 Granada, Spain · V.I. Romanovskiy Institute of Mathematics, Uzbekistan Academy of Sciences, 9, Universitet str., 100174, Tashkent, Uzbekistan +3

  41. Sample-Efficient Learning of Probabilistic Causes for Reachability in Markov Decision Processes with Probabilistic Guarantees

    Jun 29, 2026Ryohei Oura, Georgios Fainekos, Hideki Okamoto +1Markov Decision ProcessesReachability

    Toyota Research Institute of North America, Toyota Motor North America · Frontier Research Center, Toyota Motor Corporation

  42. A Theoretical Interpretation of In-Context Learning via Probabilistic Modeling

    Jun 27, 2026Zhenyu Liu, Huaze Tang, Shao-Lun HuangIn-Context LearningProbabilistic Model

    Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, China

  43. Reduction of Probabilistic Chemical Reaction Networks

    Jun 26, 2026Mauricio Montes, Gregoire Sergeant-PerthuisProbabilistic ModelReaction

    COSAM, Auburn University, Auburn, AL, USA · CQSB, Sorbonne Universite, Paris, France

  44. A probabilistic framework for online test-time adaptation

    Jun 24, 2026Daniel Corrales, David Ríos InsuaTest-Time AdaptationDistribution Shifts

    Escuela de Doctorado, Universidad Aut´onoma de Madrid, 28049 Madrid, Spain · Institute of Mathematical Sciences, ICMAT-CSIC, 28049 Madrid, Spain

  45. Confidence Sequences for Online Statistical Model Checking of Markov Decision Processes

    Jun 24, 2026Konstantin Kueffner, Tobias Meggendorfer, Maximilian Weininger +1Markov Decision ProcessesProbabilistic Model Checking

    Institute of Science and Technology Austria, Klosterneuburg, Austria · Lancaster University Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany · Ruhr-University Bochum, Bochum, Germany +1

  46. Prob-BBDM: a Probabilistic Brownian Bridge Diffusion Model for MRI sequence image-to-image translation

    Jun 23, 2026Martin Valls, Pascal Bourdon, Christine Fernandez-Maloigne +2Unpaired Image-To-Image TranslationMedical Image Generation

    UFR SFA · University of Poitiers, CNRS, XLIM, France · I3M common laboratory CNRS-Siemens Healthinners, Poitiers University Hospital and University of Poitiers, France +4

  47. The Measurable Majority

    Jun 22, 2026Lawrence S. Moss, Arthur Paul PedersenMajority VotingElections

    (†) Dept. of Mathematics, Indiana University, Bloomington. · (‡) Dept. of Computer Science & the Intel Investigations Lab, the City College of New York · the Graduate Center & Remote Sensing Earth Systems Institute, the City University of New York.

  48. Neural Operator Processes for Probabilistic Operator Learning under Partial Observations

    Jun 22, 2026Jose Miguel Lara-Rangel, Serge GuillasProbabilistic Operator LearningNeural Operators

    University College London London, United Kingdom

  49. A Tool for the Synthesis of Adaptive Probabilistic Processors Based on the Ising Model

    Jun 17, 2026Jonathan Juracy Carneiro da Silva, Leonardo R. Gobatto, Jose Rodrigo AzambujaGibbsQuantum Annealing

    Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) – Institute of Informatics – PGMicro, Porto Alegre, Brazil · Center for Embedded Devices and Research in Digital Agriculture (CEDRA), S˜ao Leopoldo, Brazil

  50. Random coloured digraphs defined by a Markov logic network

    Jun 16, 2026Yasmin Tousinejad, Vera KoponenProbabilistic ModelMarkov

    Department of Mathematics, Uppsala University, Sweden.

  51. Uncertainty Estimation and Generalization Bounds for Modern Deep Learning

    Jun 11, 2026Luis A. OrtegaBayesian Neural NetworksUncertainty-Aware Classification

    Department of Computer Science Machine Learning Group Madrid

  52. Navigating the Safety-Fidelity Trade-off: Massive-Variate Time Series Forecasting for Power Systems via Probabilistic Scenarios

    Jun 11, 2026Kaijie Xu, Anqi Wang, Xilin DaiPower SystemsProbabilistic Forecasting

    ZJU-UIUC Institute Zhejiang University Hangzhou, China

  53. A practical probabilistic framework for deformable image registration uncertainty in radiotherapy dose propagation

    Jun 8, 2026Stefan Heldmann, Sven Kuckertz, Nasim Givehchi +4RadiotherapyImage Registration

    Fraunhofer Institute for Digital Medicine MEVIS, Lübeck, Germany · Varian, a Siemens Healthineers company, Dättwil, Switzerland · Icon Group, South Brisbane, QLD, Australia

  54. Quantitative Promise Theory: Intentionality and Inference in Autonomous Agents

    Jun 7, 2026Mark BurgessAutonomous AgentsProbabilistic Model

    ChiTek-i AS

  55. How reliable are LLMs when it comes to playing dice?

    Jun 5, 2026Luca Avena, Gianmarco Bet, Bernardo BusoniLLM Reasoning StrategiesProbabilistic Model

    Università degli Studi di Firenze Dipartimento di Matematica e Informatica ‘Ulisse Dini’

  56. FinStressTS: A Parametric Synthetic Benchmark for Time-Series Forecasting in Finance

    Jun 2, 2026Jiaze Sun, Kelvin J. L. Koa, Ruiyang Ni +3Time Series ForecastingFinance Benchmarks

    National University of Singapore Singapore · National University of Singapore Asian Institute of Digital Finance Singapore · Nanyang Technological University Singapore

  57. French parsing enhanced with a word clustering method based on a syntactic lexicon

    May 30, 2026Anthony Sigogne, Matthieu Constant, Eric LaporteContext-Free GrammarsLuxembourgish

    Universit´e Paris-Est, LIGM

  58. Composing Non-Conjugate Factor Graphs with Closed-Form Variational Inference

    May 28, 2026Mykola Lukashchuk, Kyrylo Yemets, Wouter M. Kouw +4Variational InferenceFactor Graphs

    Eindhoven University of Technology, the Netherlands · Lviv Polytechnic National University, Lviv, Ukraine · Lazy Dynamics, Utrecht, the Netherlands +1

  59. Probabilistic bias adjustment of seasonal forecasts using generative machine learning: A case study of Arctic sea ice predictions

    May 27, 2026Parsa Gooya, Reinel Sospedra-AlfonsoSea-Surface Temperature DataConditional Variational Autoencoder

    Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada

  60. Probabilistic Data-Driven Modelling of Astrophysical Transients: The Neural Process Family for Ultrafast and Class-Agnostic Light Curve Reconstruction with NightLANP

    May 26, 2026Siddharth Chaini, Federica B. Bianco, Ashish MahabalCosmic-Ray Syntactic PoolGaussian Process

    Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716, USA · University of Delaware, Data Science Institute, Newark, DE 19716, USA · Joseph R. Biden, Jr. School of Public Policy and Administration, University of Delaware, DE 19716, USA +3