cs.LGApr 10, 2026

Toward World Models for Epidemiology

Authors: Zeeshan Memon, Yiqi Su, Christo Kurisummoottil Thomas, Walid Saad, Liang Zhao, Naren Ramakrishnan

Organizations: Department of Computer Science, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA · Department of Computer Science, Virginia Tech, Alexandria, VA, USA · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Worcester, MA, USA · Bradley Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Virginia Tech, Alexandria, VA, USA

Abstract

World models have emerged as a unifying paradigm for learning latent dynamics, simulating counterfactual futures, and supporting planning under uncertainty. In this paper, we argue that computational epidemiology is a natural and underdeveloped setting for world models. This is because epidemic decision-making requires reasoning about latent disease burden, imperfect and policy-dependent surveillance signals, and intervention effects are mediated by adaptive human behavior. We introduce a conceptual framework for epidemiological world models, formulating epidemics as controlled, partially observed dynamical systems in which (i) the true epidemic state is latent, (ii) observations are noisy and endogenous to policy, and (iii) interventions act as sequential actions whose effects propagate through behavioral and social feedback. We present three case studies that illustrate why explicit world modeling is necessary for policy-relevant reasoning: strategic misreporting in behavioral surveillance, systematic delays in time-lagged signals such as hospitalizations and deaths, and counterfactual intervention analysis where identical histories diverge under alternative action sequences.

Figures & tables

Explore similar work

CardsList
  1. EpiWorld: Grounding LLM Policy Agents in Epidemiological World Models

    Oct 2, 2026Zeeshan Memon, Yiqi Su, Kai Shu +2Action-Conditioned World ModelsEpidemic Forecasting

  2. Graph World Models for Constrained Epidemic Policy Planning

    Sep 28, 2026Yiqi Su, Rashed Shelim, Lingyi Wang +2Action-Conditioned World ModelsGraph-Based Planning

  3. SL-BiLEM: Structured Learnable Behavior-in-the-Loop Epidemic Modeling for Forecasting and Policy Evaluation

    May 26, 2026Haochun Wang, Sendong Zhao, Jingbo Wang +3Epidemic ForecastingDistribution Shift