TimeSeriesExamAgent: Creating Time Series Reasoning Benchmarks at Scale

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable success in general-purpose reasoning. However, they still struggle to understand and reason about time series data, which limits their effectiveness in decision-making scenarios that depend on temporal dynamics. In this paper, we propose Thoth, the first family of mid-trained LLMs with general-purpose time series understanding capabilities. As a pivotal intermediate stage, mid-training achieves task- and domain-agnostic alignment between time series and natural language, for which we construct Book-of-Thoth, a high-quality, time-series-centric mid-training corpus. Book-of-Thoth enables both time-series-to-text and text-to-time-series generation, equipping LLMs with a foundational grasp of temporal patterns. To better evaluate advanced reasoning capabilities, we further present KnoTS, a novel benchmark of knowledge-intensive time series understanding, designed for joint reasoning over temporal patterns and domain knowledge. Extensive experiments demonstrate that mid-training with Book-of-Thoth enables Thoth to significantly outperform its base model and advanced LLMs across a range of time series question answering benchmarks. Moreover, Thoth exhibits superior capabilities when fine-tuned under data scarcity, underscoring the effectiveness of mid-training for time series understanding. Code is available at: https://github.com/thuml/Thoth.

Natural language explanations of time series data are increasingly produced by foundation models in high stakes domains, making factual correctness critical. Evaluating such explanations differs fundamentally from standard natural language generation: correctness requires verifying numerical claims against structured data rather than similarity to reference text. While LLM as a Judge has emerged as a scalable paradigm for text evaluation, its applicability to numerically grounded time series explanations remains unstudied. We introduce TSQueryBench, a controlled synthetic benchmark of 500 time series instances across 10 query types, each paired with correct, partially correct, and incorrect explanations. We evaluate six large language models across four tasks: explanation generation, relative ranking, independent scoring, and multi anomaly detection. Our central finding is a consistent generation evaluation asymmetry: models that fail to generate numerically correct explanations nonetheless reliably identify or score correct ones. These results show that rubric guided LLM evaluation is substantially more reliable than generation for time series reasoning, supporting LLM judges as scalable evaluators in numerically grounded settings. Code and data: https://github.com/Prxxthxm/TSQueryBench/

Time series data inform critical decisions across many real-world domains. While large language model (LLM) agents can analyze data through natural language and tools, it remains unclear whether they can conduct reliable time series analysis across multi-turn conversations. Existing benchmarks focus on single-step tasks such as forecasting and anomaly detection, overlooking practical workflows where user goals evolve, agents must build on prior analyses, and conclusions emerge from accumulated evidence. In this work, we introduce TimeSage-MT, a multi-turn benchmark for agentic time series reasoning with 240 tasks and 2,680 dialogue turns across 8 real-world domains, spanning basic exploration to decision-oriented analysis. TimeSage-MT is built through a reproducible pipeline that converts real-world time series data into multi-turn conversations with verifiable answers. It provides a unified evaluation protocol and public leaderboard for comparing time series agentic systems. To demonstrate the benchmark's utility, we evaluate frontier LLMs alongside TimeSage, a novel structured agent equipped with a comprehensive time series skill library. The results show sharp performance drops on decision-oriented tasks, driven by failures in memory, uncertainty handling, and domain-based decision making. TimeSage-MT exposes critical gaps in current agentic reasoning and provides a rigorous foundation for future development.