EvoNash-MARL: A Closed-Loop Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Framework for Medium-Horizon Equity Allocation

This study develops and evaluates a deep reinforcement learning framework for dynamic portfolio allocation across global equity markets. The Soft Actor-Critic algorithm is used to learn continuous portfolio weights within a Markov Decision Process, incorporating transaction costs, turnover penalties, and diversification constraints into the reward function. Five model configurations are compared, varying in reward formulation, policy structure (flat versus hierarchical Dirichlet), portfolio constraints, and temporal encoder (LSTM versus Transformer), and evaluated via walk-forward optimization across sixteen out-of-sample folds spanning 2003-2026 on the Nasdaq-100, Nikkei 225, and Euro Stoxx 50. Results show that RL strategies achieve competitive risk-adjusted performance primarily in the Euro Stoxx 50, where statistically significant abnormal returns are observed, but the central hypothesis is only partially confirmed: no strategy achieves statistically significant excess returns relative to Buy and Hold under HAC-robust inference across all markets. Regime analysis reveals that RL adds the most value during periods of elevated uncertainty, while ensemble aggregation across markets improves risk-adjusted performance and confirms the benefits of geographic diversification.

Consistently profitable trading is difficult because equity markets are noisy, non-stationary, and only partially predictable from historical data. We benchmark five deep reinforcement learning (DRL) actor-critic methods: A2C, PPO, DDPG, TD3, and SAC, that learn trading actions end-to-end from market states, and compare them with a supervised price-forecasting baseline. Using daily data for 20 large-capitalization S&P 500 stocks from 2000 to 2020, enriched with trend-following technical indicators and log min-max scaling, we train on 2000-2018 and backtest on 2019-2020. Each agent is evaluated both when trained once and under forward retraining, in which it is retrained on all data available before each successive test window. DDPG achieves the highest annual return (55.5%), Sharpe ratio (1.38), and alpha (0.22), but also the highest market beta (1.24). TD3 and SAC offer a better risk-return balance, with Sharpe ratios of 1.37 and 1.33 and maximum drawdowns of about 25%. Forward retraining improves A2C, PPO, and SAC, leaves TD3 essentially unchanged, and reduces DDPG's annual return from 55.5% to 29.8%, consistent with TD3's greater robustness to hyperparameters. The forecasting baseline has the smallest maximum drawdown (9.6%) and the lowest beta (0.31), underscoring a trade-off between the higher returns of end-to-end DRL and the lower risk of forecast-driven strategies.

Provably efficient and robust equilibrium computation in general-sum Markov games remains a core challenge in multi-agent reinforcement learning. Nash equilibrium is computationally intractable in general and brittle due to equilibrium multiplicity and sensitivity to approximation error. We study Risk-Sensitive Quantal Response Equilibrium (RQRE), which yields a unique, smooth solution under bounded rationality and risk sensitivity. We propose RQRE-OVI, an optimistic value iteration algorithm for computing RQRE with linear function approximation in large or continuous state spaces. Through finite-sample regret analysis, we establish convergence and explicitly characterize how sample complexity scales with rationality and risk-sensitivity parameters. The regret bounds reveal a quantitative tradeoff: increasing rationality tightens regret, while risk sensitivity induces regularization that enhances stability and robustness. This exposes a Pareto frontier between expected performance and robustness, with Nash recovered in the limit of perfect rationality and risk neutrality. We further show that the RQRE policy map is Lipschitz continuous in estimated payoffs, unlike Nash, and RQRE admits a distributionally robust optimization interpretation. Empirically, we demonstrate that RQRE-OVI achieves competitive performance under self-play while producing substantially more robust behavior under cross-play compared to Nash-based approaches. These results suggest RQRE-OVI offers a principled, scalable, and tunable path for equilibrium learning with improved robustness and generalization.