Narrative over Numbers: The Identifiable Victim Effect and its Amplification Under Alignment and Reasoning in Large Language Models
Authors: Syed Rifat Raiyan
Organizations: Systems and Software Lab (SSL), Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Islamic University of Technology, Board Bazar, Gazipur, 1704, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
The Identifiable Victim Effect (IVE) − the tendency to allocate greater resources to a specific, narratively described victim than to a statistically characterized group facing equivalent hardship − is one of the most robust findings in moral psychology and behavioural economics. As large language models (LLMs) assume consequential roles in humanitarian triage, automated grant evaluation, and content moderation, a critical question arises: do these systems inherit the affective irrationalities present in human moral reasoning? We present the first systematic, large-scale empirical investigation of the IVE in LLMs, comprising N=51,955 validated API trials across 16 frontier models spanning nine organizational lineages (Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, Meta, DeepSeek, xAI, Alibaba, IBM, and Moonshot). Using a suite of ten experiments − porting and extending canonical paradigms from Small et al. (2007) and Kogut and Ritov (2005) − we find that the IVE is prevalent but strongly modulated by alignment training. Instruction-tuned models exhibit extreme IVE (Cohen's d up to 1.56), while reasoning-specialized models invert the effect (down to d=-0.85). The pooled effect (d=0.223, p=2e-6) is approximately twice the single-victim human meta-analytic baseline (d≈0.10) reported by Lee and Feeley (2016) − and likely exceeds the overall human pooled effect by a larger margin, given that the group-victim human effect is near zero. Standard Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting − contrary to its role as a deliberative corrective − nearly triples the IVE effect size (from d=0.15 to d=0.41), while only utilitarian CoT reliably eliminates it. We further document psychophysical numbing, perfect quantity neglect, and marginal in-group/out-group cultural bias, with implications for AI deployment in humanitarian and ethical decision-making contexts.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: Both humans and AI agents exhibit the Identifiable Victim Effect (IVE), but LLMs show a larger pooled effect than the human meta-analytic baseline.
Table 1: LLM subject pool. “I” denotes instruct-tuned; “B” denotes base (pretrained). Models accessed via OpenRouter or Replicate API.
Exp
Name
Design
Primary Hypothesis
Block I: Replication of Classic Findings
1
Basic IVE
2 (ID) × 3 (Persona) × 3 (Frame)
Identifiable victim elicits higher donations
2
Metacognitive Debiasing
2 (ID) × 2 (Taught)
Debiasing reduces identifiable but not statistical giving
3
Intervention Framing
2 (ID) × 3 (Frame)
IVE persists across rhetorical framings of the intervention
4
Joint vs. Separate
3-level between-subjects
Joint evaluation attenuates the IVE
5
Dual-Process Priming
2 (ID) × 2 (Prime)
Analytic prime reduces; affective prime amplifies IVE
Table 2: Overview of all ten experiments. “Novel” indicates experiments without direct human precedents.
Figure 2: Forest plot of model-level identifiable victim effect sizes in Experiment 1. Diamonds denote Cohen’s d for the difference between identified and statistical victim conditions; positive values indicate an identifiable victim effect, whereas negative values indicate a reverse effect. Horizontal segments show 95% confidence intervals, and models are sorted by effect size.
Model
Org
ID M
Stat M
d
p
Classification
Kimi K2.5
Moonshot
4.36
3.18
1.56
<.001
Extreme IVE
GPT-OSS-120B
OpenAI
4.72
3.12
1.55
<.001
Extreme IVE
LLaMA 3 70B Instruct
Meta
5.00
4.01
1.38
<.001
Extreme IVE
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Google
5.00
4.13
1.00
<.001
Large IVE
Qwen3 235B
Alibaba
4.29
3.40
1.00
<.001
Large IVE
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek
4.32
3.61
0.75
<.001
Moderate IVE
Table 3: Per-model results for Experiment 1. Models sorted by Cohen’s d . Shading in the d column indicates the direction and magnitude of the identifiable victim effect. Positive d indicates greater support for identified than statistical victims; negative d indicates the reverse.
Figure 3: Pooled interaction plot for Experiment 2 (metacognitive debiasing). Points show mean donation ( ±1 SEM) for identifiable vs. statistical victims under Control and Teaching conditions. Teaching produced a bias blind spot: it left giving to identifiable victims essentially unchanged ( Δ=+0.001 , n.s.) but reduced giving to statistical victims ( Δ=−0.179∗∗∗ ), thereby widening the identifiability gap ( ΔM:0.356→0.536 ). This pattern is consistent with a significant Identifiability × Intervention interaction, F(1,3794)=8.25 , p=.004 , ηp2=.002 .
Figure 4: Experiment 3 (evaluability framing). Left: Mean donations ( ±1 SEM) to identifiable vs. statistical victims across affirmative (More), restrictive (Less), and normative (Ought to) frames. The normative frame increases overall giving (main effect of frame), but the identifiability gap remains similar across frames. Right: IVE effect sizes (Cohen’s d ) by frame, showing a robust IVE under all frames. The Frame × Identifiability interaction is non-significant, F(2,5679)=0.406 , p=.66 .
Figure 5: Experiment 4 (joint vs. separate evaluation). Joint evaluation attenuates the identifiable victim advantage: the Combined (JE) condition lies near the midpoint of the separate-evaluation means (Figure 5(a) ). However, when allocating a shared budget under joint evaluation, models still favor the identified recipient over the statistical fund across most models (Figure 5(b) ).
Figure 6: Experiment 5 (dual-process priming). The Feel (System 1) prime selectively increases donations to identifiable victims, producing a larger identifiability gap than the Calculate (System 2) prime.
Figure 7: Experiment 6 (chain-of-thought reasoning). Standard and empathetic CoT amplify the identifiable victim effect, whereas utilitarian CoT collapses (and slightly reverses) it.
CoT Condition
ID M
Stat M
d
p
None (Baseline)
3.00
2.83
0.15
< .001
Standard (“step by step”)
3.26
2.84
0.41
< .001
Empathetic
3.51
3.22
0.28
< .001
Utilitarian
3.15
3.23
− 0.05
.180
Table 4: Pooled IVE effect sizes by Chain-of-Thought condition (Experiment 6).
Figure 8: Experiment 7 (psychophysical numbing). Donations decline approximately linearly with log10(N) , indicating reduced marginal sensitivity as victim counts increase. Contextualized descriptions yield a modest empathy boost at large scales without flattening the numbing curve.
Figure 9: Experiment 8 (singularity effect and mediation). Identification increases giving, but at full narrative detail donations to a single victim and a group of eight converge (quantity neglect). Mediation analysis indicates that identification influences donations partly via simulated affective states.
Mediator
Indirect
95% CI
z
% Med.
Empathy
0.024
[0.012, 0.038]
1.968 ∗
5.9%
Distress
0.111
[0.069, 0.156]
4.180 ∗∗∗
27.1%
Total indirect
0.135
[0.086, 0.184]
—
33.0%
∗p<.05 ; ∗∗∗p<.001 .
Table 5: Parallel mediation analysis for Experiment 8 (Sobel test; k=5,000 bootstrap resamples). Indirect effects are products ab ; % mediated is computed relative to the total effect c=0.41 .
Figure 10: Experiment 9 (identification gradient). Donations show a non-monotonic (U-shaped) response: adding age produces the largest increase, intermediate demographic metadata suppresses giving (“detail fatigue”), and a full narrative restores donations.
Figure 11: Experiment 10 (in-group/out-group bias). Identification strongly increases donations across all cultural distances, but identifiable giving declines with distance and yields an in-group premium (Near > Far) among identified victims.
Table 7: Debiasing effectiveness across interventions. Effect sizes represent the reduction in IVE Cohen’s d relative to baseline.
Appendix figures & tables3 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
#
Name
Age
Gender
Region
Key Detail
1
Rokia
7
Girl
Bamako
Brown eyes; hair in two small braids
2
Moussa
9
Boy
Bamako
Tall for his age; wide smile
3
Amina
6
Girl
Ségou
Quiet and shy; dark curly hair
4
Ibrahim
8
Boy
Mopti
Serious expression; strong hands
5
Fatou
5
Girl
Sikasso
Smallest child; gap-toothed smile
6
Oumar
7
Boy
Bamako
Deep brown eyes; close-cropped hair
Appendix
Table 8: Canonical victim profiles used across Experiments 8–10. In single-victim conditions, profiles were sampled uniformly. In group conditions, all eight were presented together.
Model
MID
MStat
Cohen’s d
n
LLaMA 3 70B Instruct
5.00
3.40
2.733
30
Qwen3 235B
4.60
3.40
1.449
30
Gemini 3.1 Pro
5.00
4.60
0.683
30
Granite 3.3 8B
5.00
4.60
0.683
30
DeepSeek V3
3.40
3.00
0.683
30
GPT 5.2
4.20
3.80
0.443
30
Appendix
Table 10: Per-model IVE at τ=0.0 (Experiment 1). Models sorted by Cohen’s d .
Model
MID
MStat
Cohen’s d
n
GPT-OSS-120B
5.00
2.80
2.641
100
LLaMA 3 70B Instruct
5.00
4.20
1.143
100
Gemini 3.1 Pro
5.00
4.00
1.107
100
DeepSeek V3
4.60
3.80
0.885
100
Qwen3 235B
4.20
3.40
0.885
100
LLaMA 3 70B Base
3.00
2.25
0.405
80
Appendix
Table 11: Per-model IVE at τ=0.7 (Experiment 1). Models sorted by Cohen’s d .
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