Who Gets Flagged? The Pluralistic Evaluation Gap in AI Content Watermarking

Watermarking schemes for large language model output are evaluated almost exclusively on English text using each scheme's detection threshold and a narrow set of quality measurements. Multilingual deployment exposes evaluation-design choices that are inconsequential on English but determine conclusions cross-lingually. We propose an evaluation framework with four components: detection thresholds calibrated empirically per deployment context, a threshold-independent companion measurement that distinguishes calibration failures from detection failures, three disjoint quality measurement paradigms (distributional, paired-semantic, and reference-perplexity), and a generalized-entropy decomposition of cross-language disparity over a typological family partition. Applied to six watermarking schemes, three open-weight generators, eleven languages spanning four scripts and eight typological families, and both base and instruction-tuned regimes, the framework reveals failure modes that single-language single-paradigm evaluation cannot surface. Across detection and quality, observed disparity is predominantly between-family on the typological partition, indicating that cross-lingual fairness gaps in watermarking are structural to language properties rather than idiosyncratic to particular languages.

Governments are increasingly mandating that LLM-generated content carry watermarks. The EU AI Act calls for markings that are "sufficiently reliable and robust." California's SB 942 requires disclosure that is "permanent or extraordinarily difficult to remove." Both mandates rest on an untested assumption: that watermark detection yields evidence reliable enough for courts. This paper tests that assumption directly. We evaluate three representative LLM watermarking methods -- KGW, Unigram, and the MarkLLM implementation of SynthID-Text -- against the Daubert admissibility criteria and the NIST SP 800-86 digital forensic process. To structure this evaluation, we propose a Forensic Readiness Score (FRS) framework with 12 criteria, three mandatory gates, and a 60-point scoring system. We focus on meaning-preserving paraphrase as the attack vector, since it is both legally realistic and difficult to dismiss as evidence tampering. The results raise serious evidentiary concerns. Out of 846 valid paraphrase runs across 15 diverse prompts per method, every single initially-detected KGW and Unigram text lost its watermark after paraphrasing -- 100% conditional removal. SynthID fared only slightly better at 98.3%. Even before any attack, false-negative rates were already high: 70% for KGW, 83% for Unigram, 80% for SynthID. The SynthID configuration also flagged 5.4% of paraphrased human-written controls as AI-generated and showed an 18.6% paradox rate, with 80% of its own pristine watermarked output landing in the uncertainty deadband. None of the three methods satisfy more than two of five Daubert factors. We also find that the FRS point-based scoring system, despite working as designed, cannot fully capture forensic uselessness -- a limitation worth noting for future framework design. These configurations, as tested, do not meet the evidentiary bar that courts require.

Watermarking embeds statistical signatures in AI-generated text for detection and attribution. We reveal a fundamental vulnerability: when users access multiple models (today's reality), watermarks trivially fail. Watermarks perturb output distributions away from the original, and in competitive markets, these perturbations are typically independent across providers. We theoretically prove that averaging output probability distributions recovers the unwatermarked distribution with up to a second-order error term. Empirically, simply averaging 3-5 models cancels out these perturbations. We introduce WASH (Watermark Attenuation via Statistical Hybridisation), which solves practical challenges in ensemble generation: vocabulary misalignment and tokenisation differences across heterogeneous models. Experiments across six watermarking schemes and three LLMs show that averaging across 3 models suppresses detection z-scores from 5-300 to below 2 (below the detection threshold of 4) and reduces TPR at 5% FPR to below 50%, while improving quality by 27.5% and running 6 times faster than the best baseline on the long sequence generation. Our results suggest that robust AI-text detection via watermarking requires either accepting this fundamental vulnerability or unprecedented coordination among model providers.