From $P(y|x)$ to $P(y)$: Investigating Reinforcement Learning in Pre-train Space

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become central to improving large language models (LLMs) on complex reasoning tasks, yet RL post-training is largely studied in isolation from the pretraining that precedes it. As a result, two basic questions remain open: (1) how do pretraining choices (model size, data) shape the returns to RL compute, and (2) what does RL actually do to the model? These questions are difficult to study in the standard LLM setting: pretraining corpora are vast and uncontrolled, making it hard to attribute behaviors to pretraining versus RL, and systematic compute sweeps across both stages are prohibitively expensive. To address these challenges, we use chess as a controlled testbed for studying reasoning across the full pretraining-to-post-training pipeline. We follow the standard LLM training pipeline by pretraining language models from 5M to 1B parameters on human chess games, supervised fine-tuning on synthetic reasoning traces, and running RL on chess puzzles with verifiable rewards. Using this framework, we find that the post-RL performance at given RL compute level is well-predicted from the pretraining loss, and slope of the RL reward curves improves approximately linearly with the pretraining tokens. Beyond scaling, we find that RL does not simply sharpen the SFT policy: on easy puzzles it amplifies correct moves the SFT policy already preferred, while on hard puzzles it surfaces correct moves that were nearly absent under SFT. We further test whether our findings transfer beyond chess by training a 1B language model on math-domain text, where the same predictive pattern emerges: longer-pretrained checkpoints reach higher post-RL performance and improve faster under RL. In sum, we provide a quantitative account of the pretraining-to-RL interface and a controlled testbed for studying the science of reasoning across the full pretraining-to-post-training pipeline.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has emerged as a powerful paradigm for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). However, its effectiveness is substantially hindered by the prevalence of ineffective training data: many sampled prompts yield response groups that are either entirely correct or entirely incorrect, resulting in zero-variance rewards and limited learning signals. Recent state-of-the-art methods address this issue through extensive LLM rollouts to filter ineffective samples, but at the cost of considerable computational overhead. Alternative approaches, including predictive sampling and trajectory replay, aim to improve data efficiency but often remain insufficient and may introduce additional issues such as systematic bias or suboptimal constraints. To address these limitations, we propose Group Prioritized Off-Policy Optimization (POPO), a simple yet effective framework that fully exploits effective training batches without additional rollout overhead. POPO comprises two key components: prioritized group replay and decoupled off-policy optimization. The former replaces ineffective on-policy groups with effective off-policy groups via a recency-based replay mechanism that jointly considers sample quality and the degree of off-policiness. To further mitigate the off-policy gap, POPO employs decoupled importance sampling to correct off-policy bias while maintaining stable policy updates under consistent trust-region constraints. Empirical evaluations across diverse reasoning tasks, including mathematics, planning, and visual geometry, demonstrate that POPO substantially accelerates RL finetuning and achieves strong reasoning performance with significantly fewer rollouts.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) significantly improves LLM reasoning but often causes a drop in policy entropy, leading to narrowed reasoning coverage and degraded pass@$k$ for large $k$. While existing methods mitigate this entropy collapse through algorithmic regularizations, cross-model non-parametric perturbation is also neglected. In this work, we propose a simple yet effective approach to preserve the generative diversity of LLMs during RLVR. Instead of relying solely on internal exploration, we force the target model to generate answers based on partial reasoning trajectories generated by a smaller, weaker language models. These unfamiliar prefixes effectively disrupt over-confidence and encourage the exploration of distinct reasoning paths. We empirically study the potential of outer prefixes, revealing the mechanism of the impact of distributional discrepancy to the exploration dynamics in RLVR training. Experiments across multiple mathematical benchmarks show that our method consistently outperforms vanilla RLVR. Notably, the performance gain becomes increasingly pronounced as $k$ scales up, demonstrating a substantial expansion of reasoning coverage. Furthermore, our approach efficiently mitigates entropy collapse without requiring additional SFT, intricate reward designs, or complex prompting.