On the Generalization Bounds of Symbolic Regression with Genetic Programming

We analyze the effect of optimizing the initial population of genetic programming (GP) for symbolic regression (SR) on the accuracy and complexity of solutions. We compare three well-established random initialization methods as well as initialization with small optimized solutions from exhaustive symbolic regression (ESR) using a GP/SR implementation which is based on the multi-objective evolutionary algorithm NSGA-II. We compare the final Pareto fronts found with each initialization method on twelve synthetic problems of varying complexity and one real-world dataset. We find no significant differences in accuracy or model complexity among the initialization methods. The initial advantage of initialization with ESR disappears after only a few generations. Our results show that, given similar diversity in the initial population, the effect of the initialization method in GP-based symbolic regression on the final Pareto front is negligible.

Symbolic regression with genetic programming (GPSR) may suffer from overfitting and structural bloat, especially when noise is present. In this paper we evaluate description length (DL) and fractional Bayes factor (FBF) criteria as principled, data-efficient alternatives to heuristics for selecting compact expressions that generalise well. We implement DL using a Fisher-information-based parameter encoding and compare it to AIC and BIC across multiple datasets, including noisy synthetic benchmarks and real-world regression problems. We study three search/selection strategies: (i) multi-objective search for accuracy and program length followed by DL/FBF selection; (ii) multi-objective search using DL directly as an objective; and (iii) single-objective optimisation with DL/FBF as the fitness. Across datasets we find that DL/FBF post-selection improves test performance compared to AIC/BIC baseline and that BIC in combination with the same function complexity penalty from DL/FBF produces similar results. In contrast, using DL/FBF directly as a fitness function in single-objective GPSR frequently induces premature convergence to overly simple models. We conclude with practical guidance for using DL/FBF as robust model-selection tools in genetic programming workflows.

Genetic programming (GP) approaches are among the state-of-the-art for symbolic regression, the task of constructing symbolic expressions that fit well with data. To find highly accurate symbolic expressions, both the expression structure and any contained real-valued constants, are important. GP-GOMEA, a modern model-based evolutionary algorithm, is one of the leading algorithms for finding accurate, yet compact expressions. Yet, GP-GOMEA does not perform dedicated constant optimization, but rather uses ephemeral random constants. Hence, the accuracy of GP-GOMEA may well still be improved upon by the incorporation of a constant optimization mechanism. Existing research into mixed discrete-continuous optimization with EAs has shown that a simultaneous and well-integrated approach to optimizing both discrete and continuous parts, leads to the best results on a variety of problems, especially when there are interactions between these parts. In this paper, we therefore propose a novel approach where constants in expressions are optimized at the same time as the expression structure by merging the real-valued variant of GOMEA with GP-GOMEA. The proposed approach is compared to other forms of handling constants in GP-GOMEA, and in the context of other commonly used techniques such as linear scaling, restarts, and constant tuning after GP optimization. Our results indicate that our novel approach generally performs best and confirms the importance of simultaneous constant optimization during evolution.