Target Parameterization in Diffusion Models for Nonlinear Spatiotemporal System Identification

Reconstructing continuous state trajectories of chaotic dynamical systems from sparse, noisy observations remains a fundamental open problem in nonlinear science. We introduce the Physics-Informed Diffusion Model with Dormand-Prince Integration (PIDM-DP), which embeds a fully differentiable 5th-order Dormand-Prince (DP-RK45) ODE integrator directly into the reverse sampling loop of a Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM). At each denoising step, physics residuals are back-propagated via automatic differentiation, constraining every generated trajectory to satisfy the system's governing equations to 5th-order accuracy. A linear-scheduled guidance mechanism that ramps the physics weight from zero at high noise levels to its full value near the clean-data limit prevents the gradient explosions that cause naive physics-informed approaches to fail on stiff systems with Jacobian eigenvalues of order $O(10^3)$. Evaluated across five benchmark systems of increasing complexity 3D Lorenz, 3D Rössler, 5D Hyperchaotic, 20D Lorenz-96, and the stiff 3D Rabinovich-Fabrikant at 10% observation density with additive Gaussian noise ($σ=0.05$), PIDM-DP achieves reconstruction RMSE improvements of up to $15.4\times$ over an unconstrained diffusion baseline and decisively outperforms the Ensemble Kalman Filter on stiff systems where ensemble covariance collapses. On the Rabinovich-Fabrikant out-of-distribution benchmark, PIDM-DP attains RMSE $0.1097 \pm 0.0269$ versus $0.9443 \pm 0.5288$ (unconstrained diffusion, $8.6\times$ worse) and $0.3561 \pm 0.3040$ (EnKF, $3.2\times$ worse), with $p<0.001$ in paired Wilcoxon tests ($N = 30$). Topological validation via the Rosenstein Lyapunov estimator confirms that PIDM-DP preserves the chaotic invariant measure.

Fast surrogate modeling for high-dimensional physical dynamics requires more than low short-term error: useful models must roll out efficiently while preserving the statistical structure of long trajectories. Neural operators provide inexpensive autoregressive forecasts but can drift in turbulent regimes, whereas rolling diffusion and latent generative surrogates can represent stochastic transitions at the cost of multi-step denoising, noise-schedule design, or auxiliary compression models. We propose MeanFlow Long-term Invariant Spatiotemporal Consistency Autoregressive Models (MeLISA), a latent-free autoregressive generative surrogate built on pixel-space MeanFlow. MeLISA defines a blockwise stochastic transition kernel that generates each forecast block with a single model evaluation, avoiding latent encoders and iterative diffusion solvers at inference time. To stabilize long-horizon rollouts, MeLISA combines a Window-Consistency MeanFlow objective that learns conditional spatiotemporal generation from partially observed temporal windows with a Time Increment Consistency loss that constrains multi-lag finite increments and targets temporal-correlation structure. We evaluate MeLISA with compact UNet and scalable DiT backbones on two high-resolution benchmarks, extended 2D Kolmogorov flow at $256 \times 256$ and turbulent channel-flow slice at $192 \times 192$. MeLISA outperforms neural-operator baselines on short-term forecasting accuracy and long-horizon statistical metrics, including energy spectra, turbulent kinetic energy, and mixing-rate-related dynamics, while achieving inference speeds comparable to, and in some cases faster than, neural operators. Compact 3.7-5.7M-parameter variants already deliver strong parameter efficiency, and DiT variants provide a scalable path up to 150M parameters. Overall, MeLISA benefits both rollout efficiency and long-horizon statistical accuracy.

In many domains, practitioners seek models that produce accurate forecasts while faithfully capturing latent system dynamics. Existing approaches typically sacrifice one of these goals: deep state space models often assume Gaussian latent transitions, limiting fit and forecasting, while diffusion models are highly expressive but lack principled inference for the underlying dynamics. To combine the strengths of both, we introduce the Diffusion-Driven State Space Model (DDSSM), which replaces the conventional Gaussian transition distribution with a diffusion model. Our DDSSM resolves the open problem of how to jointly train an autoencoder and a diffusion model on sequential data, thereby extending the literature on latent diffusion models for time series. Moreover, we find that the DDSSM empirically outperforms a state-of-the-art deep SSM at fitting and forecasting a simulated time series with multimodal transitions.