Distributional Off-Policy Evaluation with Deep Quantile Process Regression

In this paper, we study quantile-based distributional reinforcement learning from the perspective of statistical efficiency. We focus on distributional policy evaluation, whose goal is to characterize the return distribution, namely the distribution of discounted cumulative rewards under a given policy. To obtain a finite-dimensional representation of the return distribution, we consider the quantile fixed point $η_m$ induced by the quantile-projected distributional Bellman equation. Assuming access to a generative model, we construct an estimator $η_m^{(n)}$ based on an empirical Markov decision process. For a fixed number of quantiles $m$, we establish a non-asymptotic error bound for $η_m^{(n)}$ and $η_m$ under the supremum $W_\infty$ metric, showing that the estimation error scales as $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{m/n})$ with respect to $m$ and $n$. This implies that the quantile-based distributional policy evaluation problem can be solved with sample efficiency, achieving the optimal parametric $\sqrt{n}$ convergence rate. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the quantile parameters $\sqrt{n}(θ_m^{(n)}-θ_m)$ and characterize the semiparametric efficiency bound, which is attained by our estimator. Beyond the fixed-dimensional setting, we investigate the asymptotic regime in which the number of quantiles diverges. We characterize the limit covariance structure and show that it matches the semiparametric efficiency bound of the nonparametric model for distributional policy evaluation, showing that quantile-based estimators remain asymptotically efficient in the infinite-dimensional limit. Finally, we establish a Berry--Esseen theorem for smooth functionals $\sqrt{n}(η_m^{(n)}(s)-η_m(s))f$, thereby providing a foundation for statistically valid inference on functionals of the quantile-projected return distribution.

Offline policy evaluation (OPE) is crucial in high-stakes reinforcement learning applications, where new policies must be assessed reliably before deployment. In such settings, point estimates alone are insufficient; principled uncertainty quantification, such as confidence intervals and variance estimates, is essential for safe and risk-aware decision-making. A comprehensive way to unify these tasks is to estimate the sampling distribution of the evaluation error. Existing approaches, however, often suffer from limited robustness, scalability, or finite-sample validity. In this paper, we propose a model-based bootstrap framework for uncertainty quantification of OPE in finite-horizon, time-inhomogeneous Markov decision processes (MDPs). Unlike classical bootstrap methods that rely on resampling complete episodes, the proposed method regenerates trajectories from an estimated MDP and can therefore accommodate a much broader range of offline data formats, including complete trajectories, transition-level observations, and trajectory fragments. This flexibility further improves finite-sample statistical efficiency. We establish bootstrap distributional consistency, asymptotically valid confidence intervals, and consistent variance estimation for the target policy value. Extensive simulations show that the proposed method accurately captures the sampling distribution of the OPE estimator, yielding tighter confidence intervals and more accurate variance estimates in most settings.

In offline reinforcement learning (RL), the distribution shift between behavioral data and the learned policy can lead to erroneous \emph{Q}-value estimation, thereby misguiding the direction of policy optimization. To address this issue, we develop a behavioral advantage corrected policy evaluation (BAC-PE) approach, which utilizes the \emph{Q}-function of the behavior policy to correct the learned policy's \emph{Q}-function, thus mitigating pessimistic conservatism and overestimation bias. Furthermore, the convergence of BAC-PE is analyzed theoretically, and an upper bound on the difference between the learned \emph{Q}-function and the true \emph{Q}-function is derived. To alleviate distribution shift, this work employs diffusion models to represent both the behavior policy and the learned policy, performing distribution matching for accurate policy regularization. Additionally, \emph{Q}-value guidance is incorporated into the training process to achieve effective policy improvement. By combining BAC-PE with diffusion policy modeling, we propose the diffusion policy with behavioral advantage correction (DPBAC) algorithm. Compared to existing offline methods, DPBAC demonstrates stronger policy representation capabilities and effectively mitigates the bias in \emph{Q}-value estimation. Experimental results on multiple domains of D4RL tasks show that DPBAC achieves superior performance, with notable advantages over state-of-the-art (SOTA) algorithms.