Overview

Quantile regression estimates how different parts of an outcome distribution change with input features, rather than modeling only the average. Common approaches minimize pinball loss using linear models, kernels, trees, or neural networks, with extensions for multiple quantiles, online learning, and high-dimensional data. These estimates support uncertainty-aware forecasting, survival analysis, causal studies, and risk-sensitive decisions, while statistical inference and conformal methods help assess their reliability. Key challenges include accurate extreme-tail estimates, preventing quantile crossings, and maintaining calibration under dependence, distribution shift, or limited data.

Latest papers

CardsList

35 papers5 papers in the last four weeks, level with the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

  1. Online Quantile Omniprediction for Proper Losses

    Oct 15, 2026Hyunsuk Kim, Isaac Gibbs, Michael W. Mahoney +1Probabilistic ForecastingQuantile Regression

  2. GBTSVR: Twin Support Vector Regression via Granular Ball Computing

    Oct 14, 2026A. Quadir, M. TanveerRobust RegressionSupport Vector Machines

  3. Revisiting Tabular Deep Regression: Objectives and the Limits of Global Early Stopping

    Oct 9, 2026Danil Rudenko, Georgii Bulgakov, Nikolay Kartashev +3Tabular RegressionQuantile Regression

  4. Finite-Sample Distribution Theory and Efficient Large-Scale Inference for Online Quantile Regression

    Oct 5, 2026Ziyang Wei, Jiaqi Li, Lan Wang +1Quantile RegressionEfficient Inference

  5. Quantile Head for Vision-Language-Action Models

    Sep 28, 2026Xuan Wang, Yinan Wu, Haoran Duan +1Quantile RegressionEfficient VLA Model Inference

  6. How Synthetic Labels Improve Conformal Prediction: A Perspective on Conditional Coverage

    Sep 27, 2026Qianyi Chen, Bo LiQuantile RegressionConformal Prediction

  7. Multivariate quantile regression via Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks

    Sep 20, 2026Andrew Polar, Michael PoluektovQuantile RegressionConditional Distribution Estimation

  8. Measurement-Error-Aware Causal Distributed-Lag Quantile Modeling of Indoor Air Pollution and Short-Term Lung-Function Deterioration

    Sep 12, 2026Shayma Alkobaisi, Anas AliCausal Effect EstimationCausal Inference

  9. Quantile-Led Feature Extraction for Multi-Horizon Predictive Maintenance in Industrial Manufacturing Systems

    Sep 7, 2026David J Poland, Daniele Ravi, Na HelianQuantile RegressionPredictive Maintenance

  10. Long Horizon Transformer Quantile Fault Prediction for Multi Site Industrial Predictive Maintenance

    Sep 4, 2026David J Poland, Daniele Ravi, Na HelianQuantile RegressionMultivariate Time Series Classification

  11. GeoQ: Geometry-Aware Conditional Quantile Error Estimation for Scientific Surrogate Models

    Aug 21, 2026Khoa Nguyen, Daniel Serino, Aviral Prakash +1Uncertainty CalibrationSurrogate Modeling

  12. Non-Crossing Deep Quantile Regression for Distributional Survival Prediction

    Aug 17, 2026Shuai Huang, Zhe Qu, Zhaowei Hua +3Survival AnalysisQuantile Regression

  13. Convolution Smoothed Quantile Regression for XGBoost

    Aug 15, 2026Mandy Yao, Meredith FranklinQuantile RegressionGradient-Boosted Decision Trees

  14. Conditional Diffusion for Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Quantile Regression

    Aug 8, 2026Xingdong Feng, Xinhong Jiang, Yuling Jiao +2Quantile RegressionNonparametric Regression

  15. Adaptive deep nonparametric regression from dependent data under covariate shift

    Jul 22, 2026William Kengne, Ehud Mossa OckegnaQuantile RegressionCovariate Shift

  16. Learning-based Probabilistic Load Forecasting with Post-hoc and In-model Uncertainty

    Jul 14, 2026Sarah Al-Shareeda, Gulcihan Ozdemir, Heung Seok JeonQuantile RegressionTime Series Forecasting

  17. Bet on Features: Anytime-Valid and Feature-Aware Auditing of Conditional Quantile Forecasters

    Jul 13, 2026Ivane Antonov, Sohom Mukherjee, Richard Pibernik +1Quantile RegressionSequential Hypothesis Testing

  18. On Pairwise Quantile Regression -- Statistical Guarantees and Applications

    Jul 5, 2026Romain Thérézien, Stephan Clémençon, Fantin Girard +1Pairwise ComparisonQuantile Regression

  19. Efficient Analytic Uncertainty Quantification for Multi-Modal Regression

    Jun 23, 2026Kun Jin, James Harrison, Jiawei Li +8Quantile RegressionUncertainty Quantification

  20. Out-of-Distribution generalization of quantile regression with heavy tailed inputs: an SVM approach

    May 29, 2026Baptiste Leroux, Clément Dombry, Anne SabourinQuantile RegressionOOD Generalization

  21. Beyond MSE: Improving Precipitation Nowcasting with Multi-Quantile Regression

    May 28, 2026Gijs van Nieuwkoop, Siamak MehrkanoonPrecipitation ForecastingQuantile Regression

  22. Multi-Quantile Regression for Extreme Precipitation Downscaling

    May 12, 2026Hamed Najafi, Gareth Lagerwall, Jayantha Obeysekera +1Quantile RegressionPrecipitation Downscaling

  23. ConquerNet: Convolution-Smoothed Quantile ReLU Neural Networks with Minimax Guarantees

    May 7, 2026Tianpai Luo, Fangwei Wu, Weichi WuQuantile RegressionMinimax Estimation

  24. Super-Level-Set Regression: Conditional Quantiles via Volume Minimization

    May 7, 2026Sacha Braun, Michael I. Jordan, Francis BachQuantile Regression

  25. Quantile Geometry Regularization for Distributional Reinforcement Learning

    May 5, 2026Zhaofan Zhang, Minghao Yang, Rufeng Chen +2Distributional RLQuantile Regression

  26. Interpretable Quantile Regression by Optimal Decision Trees

    Apr 22, 2026Valentin Lemaire, Gaël Aglin, Siegfried NijssenQuantile RegressionInterpretable ML

  27. Text-to-Distribution Prediction with Quantile Tokens and Neighbor Context

    Apr 22, 2026Yilun Zhu, Yuan Zhuang, Nikhita Vedula +6Quantile RegressionDistributional Regression

  28. Distributional Off-Policy Evaluation with Deep Quantile Process Regression

    Apr 20, 2026Qi Kuang, Chao Wang, Yuling Jiao +1Distributional RLQuantile Regression