Physics-Enhanced Deep Learning for Proactive Thermal Runaway Forecasting in Li-Ion Batteries
Authors: Salman Khan, Syed Sajid Ullah, Muhammad Zunair Zamir, Jie Li, Abdul Malik, Saeed Mian Qaisar
Abstract
Accurate prediction of thermal runaway in lithium-ion batteries is essential for ensuring the safety, efficiency, and reliability of modern energy storage systems. Conventional data-driven approaches, such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, can capture complex temporal dependencies but often violate thermodynamic principles, resulting in physically inconsistent predictions. Conversely, physics-based thermal models provide interpretability but are computationally expensive and difficult to parameterize for real-time applications. To bridge this gap, this study proposes a Physics-Informed Long Short-Term Memory (PI-LSTM) framework that integrates governing heat transfer equations directly into the deep learning architecture through a physics-based regularization term in the loss function. The model leverages multi-feature input sequences, including state of charge, voltage, current, mechanical stress, and surface temperature, to forecast battery temperature evolution while enforcing thermal diffusion constraints. Extensive experiments conducted on thirteen lithium-ion battery datasets demonstrate that the proposed PI-LSTM achieves an 81.9% reduction in root mean square error (RMSE) and an 81.3% reduction in mean absolute error (MAE) compared to the standard LSTM baseline, while also outperforming CNN-LSTM and multilayer perceptron (MLP) models by wide margins. The inclusion of physical constraints enhances the model's generalization across diverse operating conditions and eliminates non-physical temperature oscillations. These results confirm that physics-informed deep learning offers a viable pathway toward interpretable, accurate, and real-time thermal management in next-generation battery systems.
Thermal runaway in lithium-ion batteries poses a major safety risk to electric vehicles and energy storage systems. Current early-warning methods depend mainly on temperature and may therefore miss mechanical precursors that emerge before rapid heating. We introduce a regime-aware, physics-guided framework that integrates temperature, voltage, force, deformation, and state-of-charge measurements for early warning under controlled mechanical abuse. A lightweight convolutional classifier first infers safe, warning, or danger regimes from mechanical signals. These regime estimates then condition a causal temporal convolutional backbone through feature-wise linear modulation, physics-biased attention, and regime-dependent gating. Joint learning unifies regime identification, thermal-runaway detection, and time-to-disaster estimation. We evaluate the framework using leave-one-experiment-out cross-validation on 30 mechanical-abuse tests across state-of-charge levels of 10%, 50%, and 90% and two loading protocols. The method achieves an F1 score of 0.89, a high-temperature prediction root-mean-square error of 12.3 °C, a mean warning lead time of 15.6 s, a detection success rate of 0.92, and an experiment-level false alarm rate of 2.7%. Its lead time exceeds that of the strongest baseline by 69.6%. Removing force reduces the lead time by 60.3%, highlighting the value of mechanical precursors. These results support regime-aware thermo-mechanical fusion as a promising strategy for earlier and more reliable thermal-runaway warning under controlled abuse conditions.
Syed Sajid Ullah, Muhammad Zunair Zamir, Salman Khan
Accurate prediction of lithium-ion battery state of health (SOH) is essential for reliable energy storage operation. However, purely data-driven models may generalize poorly across cycling protocols and produce physically implausible behavior during long-term extrapolation. We developed a physics-informed differentiable degradation modeling framework (PiDDM) for battery SOH prediction. PiDDM incorporates empirical Arrhenius degradation kinetics associated with solid electrolyte interphase growth and loss of lithium inventory into the training objective, encouraging physically consistent capacity fade under diverse operating conditions. The framework was evaluated using a public dataset of 55 batteries cycled under six operating protocols. PiDDM achieved the lowest average prediction error among the evaluated models and substantially reduced mean squared error relative to a multilayer perceptron and a baseline physics-informed neural network. For extrapolation, the models were trained on the first 90% of each battery's cycle life and evaluated on the unseen final 10%. PiDDM captured accelerated end-of-life degradation while avoiding the nonphysical capacity regeneration produced by the baseline models. These results show that incorporating degradation physics into neural network training improves predictive accuracy and physical consistency, providing a promising approach for practical battery health monitoring.
Accurate temperature estimation of pouch cells with indirect liquid cooling is essential for optimizing battery thermal management systems for transportation electrification. However, it is challenging due to the computational expense of finite element simulations and the limitations of data-driven models. This paper presents a physics-informed machine learning (PIML) framework for the efficient and reliable estimation of steady-state temperature profiles. The PIML approach integrates the governing heat transfer equations directly into the neural network's loss function, enabling high-fidelity predictions with significantly faster convergence than purely data-driven methods. The framework is evaluated on a dataset of varying cooling channel geometries. Results demonstrate that the PIML model converges more rapidly and achieves markedly higher accuracy, with a 49.1% reduction in mean squared error over the data-driven model. Validation against independent test cases further confirms its superior performance, particularly in regions away from the cooling channels. These findings underscore the potential of PIML for surrogate modeling and design optimization in battery systems.