Organizations: 1Technion - Israel Institute of Technology.
Abstract
Recent advances in vision-language-action (VLA) models for robotics have highlighted the importance of reliable uncertainty quantification in sequential tasks. However, assessing and improving calibration in such settings remains mostly unexplored, especially when only partial trajectories are observed. In this work, we formulate sequential calibration for episodic tasks, where task-success confidence is produced along an episode, while success is determined at the end of it. We introduce a sequential extension of the Brier score and show that, for binary outcomes, its risk minimizer coincides with the VLA policy's value function. This connection bridges uncertainty calibration and reinforcement learning, enabling the use of temporal-difference (TD) value estimation as a principled calibration mechanism over time. We empirically show that TD calibration improves performance relative to the state-of-the-art on simulated and real-robot data. Interestingly, we show that when calibrated using TD, the VLA's single-step action probabilities can yield competitive uncertainty estimates, in contrast to recent findings that employed different calibration techniques.
Confidence estimation for Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models is essential for robots to perform manipulation tasks in the open world, providing crucial signals for risk-sensitive decision-making and failure anticipation. Existing confidence estimation methods typically rely on ensemble-based paradigms or action-token probabilities to predict the likelihood of task success. However, they still encounter challenges in computational efficiency and cross-architecture generalizability. These methods usually require repeated sampling, leading to inference inefficiency, and are restricted to VLA models with discrete action outputs, making them difficult to apply to continuous action spaces. To address this issue, we propose VLAConf, a one-class discriminative confidence framework. By leveraging frozen pretrained VLA internal representations, VLAConf directly estimates step-wise anomaly scores in a single forward pass using a lightweight confidence head, thereby eliminating the overhead of exhaustive resampling. We additionally use step-conditioned modeling to encode rollout-phase information along the manipulation trajectory. Experiments on the LIBERO benchmark demonstrate that VLAConf significantly improves the quality of the confidence signal constructed for post-hoc calibration, outperforming existing baselines by a large margin in inference efficiency. The effectiveness of VLAConf is further validated in real-robot experiments. To access the source code and supplementary videos, visit https://sites.google.com/view/vlaconf.
Vision-language-action (VLA) models have emerged as generalist robotic controllers capable of mapping visual observations and natural language instructions to continuous action sequences. However, VLAs provide no calibrated measure of confidence in their action predictions, thus limiting their reliability in real-world settings where uncertainty and failures must be anticipated. To address this problem we introduce ReconVLA, a reliable conformal model that produces uncertainty-guided and failure-aware control signals. Concretely, our approach applies conformal prediction directly to the action token outputs of pretrained VLA policies, yielding calibrated uncertainty estimates that correlate with execution quality and task success. Furthermore, we extend conformal prediction to the robot state space to detect outliers or unsafe states before failures occur, providing a simple yet effective failure detection mechanism that complements the action-level uncertainty. We evaluate ReconVLA in both simulation and real robot experiments across diverse manipulation tasks. Our results show that conformalized action predictions consistently improve failure anticipation, reduce catastrophic errors, and provide a calibrated measure of confidence without retraining or modifying the underlying VLA.
Reinforcement learning (RL) has become indispensable for pushing Vision-Language-Action Models (VLAs) beyond static imitation learning. However, existing RL methods typically require external environmental feedback, relying on predefined success signals to guide policy updates. In this work, we show that VLA models possess useful internal evaluative capabilities: in discrete-action VLAs, trajectories with higher generation confidence are significantly more likely to succeed. Based on this observation, we introduce T^2VLA (Test-time VLA), an architecture-agnostic test-time RL framework that enables VLA models to achieve self-bootstrapping policy improvement. Instead of relying on external rewards, T^2VLA leverages trajectory-level similarity to high-confidence expert demonstrations as an intrinsic reward signal. In addition, we propose a Confidence-Driven Dual Expert Bootstrapping mechanism, which dynamically balances a Local Pseudo-Expert for exploration and a Global Expert Pool for training stability. Extensive experiments on the LIBERO and RoboTwin benchmarks show that T^2VLA consistently outperforms supervised baselines and approaches oracle RL performance with ground-truth rewards, achieving effective improvement without external reward feedback. Furthermore, T^2VLA adapts to distinct VLA paradigms, including both OpenVLA-OFT and the pi series.