Conformal Prediction

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49 papers in the last four weeks, up 53% on the four weeks before. 0.3% of all new papers.

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  1. CopRoute: Dependence-Aware Conformal Routing for Language Models

    Oct 9, 2026Siva Rajesh Kasa, Santhosh Kumar Kasa, Karan GuptaLLM RoutingEfficient Language Model Inference

  2. Stochastic Grouping Conformal Prediction for Effective Subgroup Reliability

    Oct 8, 2026Meihui Zhong, Wenxin Tai, Ting Zhong +1Conformal PredictionGroup-Conditional Conformal Prediction

    University of Electronic Science and Technology of China · Kashi Institute of Electronics and Information Industry · Intelligent Digital Media Technology, Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province

  3. Sample-Efficient Generative Conformal Prediction

    Oct 8, 2026Minxing Zheng, Shixiang ZhuConformal PredictionAdaptive Sampling

    Carnegie Mellon University

  4. Conformal Prediction under Partial Verification

    Oct 7, 2026Zijun Yu, Yu Gu, Vahid Partovi Nia +1Conformal Prediction

    McGill University · Polytechnique de Montréal

  5. Conformal Prediction for Spatially Dependent Data via Sequential Whitening

    Oct 7, 2026Ayush Baran Sen, Arkajyoti SahaConformal PredictionRegression Prediction Intervals

    Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, India · Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine

  6. Certified by Abstention: Distribution-Free Guarantees for Chain-of-Thought Verifiers at Small Calibration Budgets

    Oct 7, 2026Arjun BalajiSelective PredictionConformal Prediction

    Columbia University

  7. Quantifying Volumetric Risk: Class-Aware Asymmetric Weighted Conformal Prediction for 3D Medical Image Segmentation

    Oct 7, 2026Shadi Alijani, Fereshteh Aghaee Meibodi, Homayoun NajjaranConformal PredictionSegmentation Uncertainty Estimation

    University of Victoria, 800 Finnerty Road, Victoria, BC, Canada

  8. Conformal Prediction Sets Quantify Information Gain: A Theoretical Perspective

    Oct 6, 2026Kevin Zhang, Stephen BatesSet PredictionConformal Prediction

    EECS, MIT, Cambridge MA, USA.

  9. Reinforcement Learning with Conformal Action Sets: An Application to Sequential Recommendation

    Oct 6, 2026Wenwen Si, Honghao WeiSequential RecommendationReinforcement Learning

    University of Pennsylvania · Washington State University

  10. Valid for Free: Homophily-Gated Conformal Prediction for Training-Free Node Classification with Tabular Foundation Models

    Oct 6, 2026Nguyen Duy Long, Phung Minh Hien, Nguyen Trong Viet +1Tabular Foundation ModelsConformal Prediction

    Faculty of Information Technology, Posts and Telecommunications Institute of Technology, Hanoi, Vietnam · Faculty of Engineering, School of Computer Science, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia · Faculty of Information Technology, Van Lang School of Technology, Van Lang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

  11. Risk-Sensitive Crowd Navigation with Adaptive Ellipsoidal Conformal Prediction

    Oct 5, 2026Ruihan A. Li, Ziyao Guo, Yingying LiDistribution Shift RobustnessRobot Navigation

    Coordinated Science Laboratory, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL

  12. Uncertainty in Representation Learning on Knowledge Graphs

    Oct 3, 2026Yuqicheng ZhuKG EmbeddingConformal Prediction

    Institut für Künstliche Intelligenz (KI) der Universität Stuttgart

  13. Conformal Prediction with Paraphrase-Aware Scoring for LLM Uncertainty Quantification

    Oct 3, 2026Jiayi Xin, Evan Qiang, Zihan Zhu +3Confidence Estimation in Language ModelsLLM Uncertainty Estimation

    University of Pennsylvania

  14. Coverage You Can Steer: Online Conformal Calibration for RL-Driven Hardware-Aware NAS

    Oct 2, 2026Pedro Brandimarte, Nerea Aranjuelo, Marcos Nieto +1Neural Architecture SearchConformal Prediction

    Vicomtech Foundation, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA) Donostia-San Sebasti´an, Spain

  15. Reliable Self-Evolution with Imperfect Proxy Rewards

    Oct 2, 2026Kangjun Noh, Soyu Kim, Kyungwoo SongSelf-Evolving AgentsLarge Language Model-Guided Scientific Discovery

    Yonsei University

  16. Localized Conformal Safety Monitoring with Vision-Language Models for Autonomous Driving

    Oct 2, 2026Luís Marques, Rong Fang, Disha Kamale +1Autonomous Driving Safety EvaluationAutonomous Driving

    University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA

  17. Threshold-Aware Conformal Routing

    Oct 1, 2026Shiwei Tan, Huzefa Rangwala, Danielle C. MaddixConformal PredictionRegression Prediction Intervals

    Rutgers University · Siemens

  18. Conformal Prediction for Time Series with Deep Sequence Models

    Oct 1, 2026Junghwan Lee, Jonghyeok Lee, Yao XieConformal PredictionRegression Prediction Intervals

    H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology

  19. Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Image Regression Models with Application to an Inertial Confinement Fusion Emulator

    Sep 30, 2026Carrie J. Lei-Cramer, Michael S. Jones, Laura J. WendelbergerUncertainty QuantificationConformal Prediction

    Department of Statistics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA. · Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, USA.

  20. SimplexUQ: An Evaluation Framework and Benchmark for Conformal Uncertainty on Simplex-Valued Predictions

    Sep 30, 2026Liang You, Hengyu Shi, Dongwen OuGroup-Conditional Conformal PredictionConformal Prediction

    University of Pittsburgh · Duke University

  21. ReCIRC: Rectified Conformal Risk Control

    Sep 29, 2026Bruno Marcondes e Resende, Helton Graziadei, Thiago Rodrigo Ramos +1Conformal PredictionConformal Risk Control

    Department of Statistics, Federal University of São Carlos

  22. Scaling Full Conformal Image Classifiers

    Sep 29, 2026Julio Silva-Rodríguez, Ender KonukogluVLM AdaptationConformal Prediction

    Computer Vision Lab, ETH Zürich

  23. Conformal Prediction and Conditional Coverage for Tabular Foundation Models

    Sep 28, 2026Sungwoo Park, Sunghee Park, Won ChangTabular Foundation ModelsGroup-Conditional Conformal Prediction

    Department of Statistics Seoul National University Seoul, Republic of Korea

  24. Conformal Factuality Control for Multi-Hop Retrieval-Augmented Generation

    Sep 27, 2026Muhammad Aimal Rehman, Chi-Kuang YehRetrieval-Augmented GenerationLLM Hallucination Mitigation

    Department of Mathematics & Statistics Georgia State University Atlanta, GA, USA

  25. How Synthetic Labels Improve Conformal Prediction: A Perspective on Conditional Coverage

    Sep 27, 2026Qianyi Chen, Bo LiQuantile RegressionConformal Prediction

    School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University

  26. Sharp training-conditional coverage for conformal prediction under covariate shift

    Sep 27, 2026Mehrdad PournaderiWeighted Conformal PredictionSet Prediction

    Mofid Securities

  27. Byzantine-Robust Federated RAG via Aligned Calibration and Fixed-Membership Conformal Prediction

    Sep 27, 2026Prasanjit Dubey, Aritra Guha, Xiaoming HuoRetrieval-Augmented GenerationByzantine-Robust Federated Learning

    H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, U.S.A. · AT&T Chief Data Office

  28. Uncertainty Quantification of Next Generation Reservoir Computing with Applications to Memory-Driven Dynamical Systems

    Sep 26, 2026Livia Popa, Sumanta Basu, Martin T. WellsUncertainty QuantificationReservoir Computing

    Department of Statistics and Data Science, Cornell University, New York, USA

  29. Two Conformal Constructions for Adaptive Within-Document AI-Text Screening

    Sep 25, 2026Marco Mandap, Jerahmeel Hipolito, Arcel Galvez +4AI-Generated Text DetectionAdaptive Conformal Inference

    Bulacan State University.

  30. Counterfactual Online Conformal Prediction Under Adaptive Logging

    Sep 25, 2026Xinyu Qiao, Yichen Lin, Kaihong Ji +2Conformal PredictionWeighted Conformal Prediction

    Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China · Alibaba Group