Conformal Prediction

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Overview

Conformal prediction uses examples held out for calibration to turn a model’s scores into prediction sets or intervals with finite-sample coverage guarantees, usually when calibration and future data are exchangeable. Split and full conformal methods are common foundations; variants such as conformalized quantile regression, Mondrian calibration, weighted conformal prediction, and adaptive conformal inference target efficiency, subgroup coverage, distribution shift, or streaming data. These methods are used for classification and regression as well as time-series forecasting, structured outputs, language-model abstention, and safety-critical decisions. A central challenge is that marginal coverage can hide failures for particular groups or difficult inputs, while methods that improve local reliability or handle shift often need more data or stronger assumptions and can produce larger prediction sets.

Latest papers

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364 papers45 papers in the last four weeks, down 10% on the four weeks before. 0.3% of all new papers.

  1. Beyond Imputation: Mask-Adaptive Conformal Prediction via Tree Embeddings on General Missing Data Mechanisms

    Nov 1, 2026Jiarong Fan, Juhyun Park, Thi Phuong Thuy Vo +1Conformal PredictionLearning with Missing Data

    LaMME Université Paris-Saclay · LaMME, ENSIIE Université Paris-Saclay · Capgemini Invent

  2. Abstention Spends Its Budget on Local Label Variance More Than on Novelty: Auditing Conformal Calibration and Selective Prediction under Molecular Scaffold Shift

    Nov 1, 2026Arnav Srivastava, Krishna KassettySelective PredictionConformal Prediction

    New York University · PhonePe

  3. Spectral and Conformal: Neural Network Methods for Calibrated Trajectory Prediction and Control-Point Intervals

    Oct 30, 2026Jasmine Ratchford, Raffaele RomagnoliTrajectory InferenceProbabilistic Trajectory Prediction

    CMU Software Engineering Institute (former affiliation) · Duquesne University

  4. Know When the Equation Is Wrong: Structural Uncertainty for LLM-Guided Symbolic Regression under Extrapolation

    Oct 30, 2026Mostafa Cham, Bayu Adhi Tama, Jianwu WangSymbolic RegressionUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Information Systems, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD, USA.

  5. From fleet trajectories to single-cell promises: hierarchically weighted conformal prediction for battery SOH monitoring

    Oct 30, 2026Xiangyu LiuConformal PredictionRegression Prediction Intervals

    Independent Researcher, Beijing, China

  6. Adaptive Uncertainty Quantification on Simplicial Complexes with Conformalized Simplicial Neural Networks

    Oct 30, 2026Lekun Wang, Jaidev Goel, Yulia R. Gel +1Uncertainty QuantificationSet-Valued Prediction

    Georgia Institute of Technology · Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

  7. Conformal Annotation with Randomized Expert Review: Application to Online Cell-Type Labeling

    Oct 29, 2026Xuhe Zhang, Zhi Huang, Ying JinHuman-in-the-Loop AnnotationConformal Prediction

    Applied Mathematics and Computational Science, University of Pennsylvania · Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, University of Pennsylvania · Department of Statistics and Data Science, University of Pennsylvania

  8. Conformal Predictive Distributions for Contextual Order Fulfillment Optimization

    Oct 27, 2026Tinghan Ye, Amira Hijazi, Pascal Van HentenryckSupply Chain OptimizationPredict-Then-Optimize

    H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial & Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, USA

  9. Finite-Sample Optimal Conformal Prediction Sets under Covariate Shift

    Oct 27, 2026Zhongyang LiConformal PredictionCovariate Shift

    Department of Mathematics, University of Connecticut, 341 Mansfield Road, Unit 1009, Storrs, CT 06269-1009, USA

  10. KEPT: Conformal Keepouts Kept in Planning for Enclosed-Space Navigation in Degraded Sensing

    Oct 27, 2026Eric Minwoo Kim, Jong-Kook KimSafe Robot NavigationIndoor Robot Navigation

    School of Electrical Engineering, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea

  11. ConformalMOS: Uncertainty-Aware MOS Prediction with Conformal Intervals and Ordinal Modeling

    Oct 26, 2026Kehinde Elelu, Joshua E. Siegel, Mohammadali Saffary +3Speech Quality AssessmentTTS Evaluation

    Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA · Clemson University, Clemson, SC, USA

  12. Benchmarking uncertainty quantification for engineering regression under graded distribution shift

    Oct 26, 2026Ahmad Lawal, Rahim Pasbanigoloojeh, Asmau Lawal BilbisUncertainty QuantificationRegression Prediction Intervals

    School of Computer Science and Informatics, De Montfort University, Leicester, UK

  13. Identities, Not Pairs: Distribution-Free False-Accept Control for Embedding-Based Verification

    Oct 26, 2026Salim KhazemBiometric IdentificationConformal Prediction

    Talan Research Center

  14. Macro Mondrian Conformal Risk Control

    Oct 26, 2026Julien Combes, Jean-Francois Coeurjolly, Alexandre Dervill{é}Conformal Risk ControlConformal Prediction

    SVH, Michelin · SVH · Michelin

  15. Valid Early Detection of Memorization in Diffusion Models

    Oct 25, 2026Yixiao Jing, Chia-Yu Hsu, Milad Hoseinpour +1Memorization in Generative ModelsSequential Hypothesis Testing

    Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA

  16. Metric Conformal Prediction via the Conditional Expected Local Radius

    Oct 22, 2026Rui Qiu, Fang Yao, Zhou YuConformal PredictionConditional Distribution Estimation

    School of Statistics, KLATASDS-MOE, East China Normal University · School of Mathematical Sciences, Center for Statistical Science, Peking University

  17. Dynamic Dual-Feedback Conformal Inference for Time Series Forecasting

    Oct 19, 2026Songlin Du, Ling Luo, Uwe AickelinConformal PredictionAdaptive Conformal Inference

    Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, School of Computing and Information Systems, University of Melbourne

  18. Predicted Class Correction: Conformal Thresholds for Classes with No Calibration Data

    Oct 18, 2026One Octadion, Novanto Yudistira, Yuta NakashimaConformal PredictionGroup-Conditional Conformal Prediction

    Universitas Brawijaya, Malang, Indonesia · SANKEN, The University of Osaka, Osaka, Japan

  19. What "Form'' of Uncertainty Does Conformal Prediction Quantify?

    Oct 17, 2026Soroush H. Zargarbashi, Mohammad Sadegh Akhondzadeh, Rebekka Burkholz +1Conformal PredictionEpistemic Uncertainty

    CISPA Helmholtz Center for Information Security · University of Cologne

  20. CoCoNet: Convex Conformal Network for Multi-Dimensional Uncertainty Regions

    Oct 16, 2026Alireza Moradi, Thomas Bruys, Pascal Van Hentenryck +1Conformal PredictionSet-Valued Prediction

    H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering (ISyE), Georgia Institute of Technology · NSF AI Institute for Advances in Optimization (AI4OPT), Georgia Institute of Technology · School of Electrical and Computer Engineering (ECE), Georgia Institute of Technology

  21. Adaptive conformal prediction on the Grassmannian

    Oct 16, 2026Dimitrios Loukrezis, Zachary J. Grey, Dimitris G. GiovanisConformal PredictionRegression Prediction Intervals

    Scientific Computing Group Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica Amsterdam, The Netherlands · Applied & Computational Mathematics Division National Institute of Standards & Technology Boulder, CO, USA · Dpt. of Civil & Systems Engineering Dpt. of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Johns Hopkins University Baltimore, MD, USA

  22. Information-Geometric Blind Spots of Conformal Test Martingales

    Oct 16, 2026Johan Hallberg SzabadváryDistribution Shift DetectionConformal Prediction

    Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University · Department of Computing, Jönköping University

  23. Selection-Safe Conformal Early Exit: Distribution-Free Coverage under Adaptive Depth

    Oct 14, 2026Adria Binte Habib, Ibne Farabi ShihabConformal PredictionAdaptive Inference

    Department of Computer Science, BRAC University · Department of Computer Science, Iowa State University

  24. State-Matched Sequence Conformal Prediction

    Oct 14, 2026Ruihang Han, Li-Hsiang LinConformal PredictionProbabilistic Time Series Forecasting

    Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30303

  25. Conformalized Physics-Informed Weak Regression for Parameter Estimation in Epidemic Models

    Oct 13, 2026Allan Peter Engsig-KarupSpatial Epidemic ModelingParameter Estimation

    Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark

  26. CoSMO: Conformal Semantic Mapping for Open-World Safe Robot Navigation

    Oct 13, 2026Shuqi Wang, Yiwei Zheng, Pingrui Zhang +2Safe Robot NavigationConformal Prediction

    Shanghai Jiao Tong University · Shanghai Innovation Institute · Fudan University

  27. CALM-5G: Event-Level Conformal Risk Control for Predictive Service-Assurance Alarms

    Oct 13, 2026Ömer Faruk İşcanlı, Yağmur Sabucu SandalOnline CalibrationConformal Risk Control

    Siemens A.¸S., Istanbul, Türkiye

  28. Monitoring for Shifts at Unknown Times: Parameter-Free Conditional Conformal Martingales

    Oct 12, 2026Tuo Liu, Drew Prinster, Francesco OrabonaDistribution Shift DetectionChange-Point Detection

    King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Saudi Arabia · Johns Hopkins University, USA

  29. SCOPE Before You Sample: Conformal Scores Guide Posterior Exploration for Fast and Calibrated Bayesian Predictive Inference

    Oct 12, 2026Zahra Moslemi, Ziyi Liang, Babak ShahbabaBayesian InferencePosterior Sampling

    University of California, Irvine · University of California, Santa Barbara

  30. Does the Explanation Drift Before the Guarantee? Label-Free Early Warning on Evolving Graphs

    Oct 12, 2026Tomasz Szandała, Damian RaczkowskiDistribution Shift DetectionGNN Explainability

    Faculty of Information and Communication Technology, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology · independent researcher