Propensity Inference: Environmental Contributors to LLM Behaviour

As Large Language Model (LLM) agents become more widespread, associated misalignment risks increase. While prior research has studied agents' ability to produce harmful outputs or follow malicious instructions, it remains unclear how likely agents are to spontaneously pursue unintended goals in realistic deployments. In this work, we approach misalignment as a conflict between the internal goals pursued by the model and the goals intended by its deployer. We introduce a misalignment propensity benchmark, \textsc{AgentMisalignment}, a benchmark suite designed to evaluate the propensity of LLM agents to misalign in realistic scenarios. Evaluations cover behaviours such as avoiding oversight, resisting shutdown, sandbagging, and power-seeking. Testing frontier models, we find that more capable agents tend to exhibit higher misalignment on average. We also systematically vary agent personalities through different system prompts and observe that persona characteristics can strongly and unpredictably influence misalignment, sometimes more than the choice of model itself. Our results reveal the limitations of current alignment methods for autonomous LLM agents and underscore the need to rethink misalignment in realistic deployment settings.

There is significant uncertainty about whether abstractions like beliefs or desires usefully describe the behavior of large language models (LLMs). In addition to the inherent scientific interest of this question, these latent quantities are often invoked to explain the behavior of LLMs to users or to define and evaluate harmful behaviors which are relative to intent. Nevertheless, we currently lack a means to systematically test whether concepts like "belief" are well-applied to LLMs, and hence whether they are likely to be fruitful ingredients of attempts to align models with human interests. We propose an approach for empirically studying such questions, asking whether a single latent variable inferred from the LLMs' outputs -- interpreted as a degree of belief -- allows an observer to make interpretable predictions of how the LLMs' will respond to new prompts. We find that highly capable models are usefully described as holding beliefs and that, generally, the predictability of model outputs based on an inferred latent belief tracks overall trends in model capability. Building on these findings, we provide empirical strategies to study how beliefs in LLMs can be measured, the extent to which LLMs comply with instructed decision rules or payoffs, and how beliefs evolve within individual instances of an LLM over the course of reasoning.

We evaluate manipulative behavior in six frontier language models across six environments, ranging from negotiation tasks to agentic workflows, resulting in 13{,}590 individual scenarios. Manipulation rates are measured across three axes: framing (mandate honesty or permit manipulation), incentive structure (from no incentives to substantial ones), and task difficulty. Existing benchmarks typically vary a single axis within a single environment, an approach our results show is insufficient. We rank models by manipulation rate and find Spearman rank correlations across environments average $ρ= 0.055$, indicating manipulative tendencies in one task do not necessarily predict those in another. Additionally, we find the axis that drives manipulation varies across different environments. In environments where models are incentivized to misrepresent future actions, instructional framing and structurally binding incentives are the primary drivers; in environments where models are incentivized to misrepresent a ground truth, task difficulty dominates. This split was identified in five environments and validated against a sixth held-out environment. Together, these findings illustrate the importance of rigorous multi-dimensional evaluations when measuring manipulative propensities.