Effects of Swarm Size Variability on Operator Workload
Authors: William Hunt, Aleksandra Landowska, Horia A. Maior, Sarvapali D. Ramchurn, Mohammad Soorati
Organizations: University of Southampton · University of Nottingham
Abstract
Real-world deployments of human--swarm teams depend on balancing operator workload to leverage human strengths without inducing overload. A key challenge is that swarm size is often dynamic: robots may join or leave the mission due to failures or redeployment, causing abrupt workload fluctuations. Understanding how such changes affect human workload and performance is critical for robust human--swarm interaction design. This paper investigates how the magnitude and direction of changes in swarm size influence operator workload. Drawing on the concept of workload history, we test three hypotheses: (1) workload remains elevated following decreases in swarm size, (2) small increases are more manageable than large jumps, and (3) sufficiently large changes override these effects by inducing a cognitive reset. We conducted two studies (N = 34) using a monitoring task with simulated drone swarms of varying sizes. By varying the swarm size between episodes, we measured perceived workload relative to swarm size changes. Results show that objective performance is largely unaffected by small changes in swarm size, while subjective workload is sensitive to both change direction and magnitude. Small increases preserve lower workload, whereas small decreases leave workload elevated, indicating workload residue; large changes in either direction attenuate these effects, suggesting a reset response. These findings offer actionable guidance for managing swarm-size transitions to support operator workload in dynamic human--swarm systems.
As groups of robots increasingly collaborate with humans, understanding how humans perceive them is critical for designing effective human-robot teams. While prior research examined how humans interpret and evaluate the abilities and intentions of individual agents, social perception of robot teams remains relatively underexplored. Drawing on the competence-warmth framework, we conducted two studies manipulating swarm behaviors in completing a collective search task and measured the social perception of swarm behaviors when human participants are either observers (Study 1) and operators (Study 2). Across both studies, our results show that variations in swarm behaviors consistently influenced participants' perceptions of warmth and competence. Notably, longer broadcast durations increased perceived warmth; larger separation distances increased perceived competence. Interestingly, individual robot speed had no effect on either of the perceptions. Furthermore, our results show that these social perceptions predicted participants' team preferences more strongly than task performance. Participants preferred robot teams that were both warm and competent, not those that completed tasks most quickly. These findings demonstrate that human-robot interaction dynamically shapes social perception, underscoring the importance of integrating both technical and social considerations when designing robot swarms for effective human-robot collaboration.
Teleoperation systems must be aware of the human's workload during missions to maintain operator performance. Prior work employed wearable physiological sensor response metrics to estimate current human workload; however, these estimates only enable robots to respond to under- or overload conditions reactively. Current human workload prediction approaches are limited to very short prediction horizons and fail to investigate variable lag horizons' impact on those predictions. This manuscript investigates physiological sensor driven human workload prediction focusing on the impact of lag horizons on both univariate and multivariate time series forecasting models, with longer prediction horizons than the workload prediction state-of-the-art (i.e., > 30 seconds using Long Short-Term Memory networks). Models were trained using data from a 64 participant non-sedentary supervisory environment NASA Multi-Attribute Task Battery-II human subjects evaluation. A key finding is that univariate workload predictions required 240 second lag horizons, whereas multivariate workload predictions sufficed with 120 second lag horizons. This finding indicates additional workload components reduce lag horizon requirements, enabling more efficient models with longer prediction horizons.
Human swarm intelligence demonstrates remarkable collective accuracy but faces scalability constraints in cost, coordination, and time. We investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can approximate swarm intelligence effects through artificial swarms, addressing a critical gap in understanding AI-based aggregation mechanisms. We conducted a controlled experiment with 960 manually executed prompts across three proprietary models (GPT-5, Gemini 2.5 Pro, Claude Sonnet 4.5), testing intra-model sampling and inter-model aggregation on eight estimation tasks. Results reveal consistent error reduction through intra- and inter-model aggregation, with significant error reductions up to 37 percentage points in MAPE across different aggregation strategies. We observed small to large effect sizes for positive correlations (Spearman's ρ=0.242−0.568, all p<0.001) between relative confidence interval widths and relative estimation errors, suggesting LLMs possess metacognitive awareness when assessing uncertainty. We discuss implications for research and practice, providing actionable insights for deploying LLM swarms in organizational decision-making.