q-fin.STApr 13, 2026

Beyond Sequential Prediction: Learning Financial Market Dynamics in Volatile and Non-Stationary Environments through Sentiment-Conditioned Generative Modelling

Authors: Alexis Lazanas, Spyridon Karpouzis

Organizations: Department of Mechanical Engineering and Aeronautics, University of Patras, Rion-Patras, Greece · FICC Market Risk, BNP Paribas CIB, London, United Kingdom

Abstract

The problem of time-series forecasting in non-stationary and complex environments is a challenging task in machine learning, especially with heterogeneous numerical and textual data present. Traditional statistical models like AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) are based on the assumptions of linearity and stationarity, whereas recurrent neural networks like Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models do not necessarily represent distributional properties in highly volatile settings. This paper proposes a hybrid model that combines Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) with Natural Language Processing (NLP)-based sentiment analysis to enable sentiment-conditioned time-series prediction. The model integrates adversarial learning on numerical sequences with contextual sentiment representations derived from unstructured text, enabling them to be jointly modelled to capture temporal dynamics and exogenous information. These results demonstrate the promise of hybrid generative and language-aware methods to enhance prediction robustness in non-stationary environments.

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