Large language model (LLM) agents are increasingly tasked with complex real-world analysis (e.g., in financial forecasting, scientific discovery), yet their reasoning suffers from stochastic instability and lacks a verifiable, compositional structure. To address this, we introduce Analytica, a novel agent architecture built on the principle of Soft Propositional Reasoning (SPR). SPR reframes complex analysis as a structured process of estimating the soft truth values of different outcome propositions, allowing us to formally model and minimize the estimation error in terms of its bias and variance. Analytica operationalizes this through a parallel, divide-and-conquer framework that systematically reduces both sources of error. To reduce bias, problems are first decomposed into a tree of subpropositions, and tool-equipped LLM grounder agents are employed, including a novel Jupyter Notebook agent for data-driven analysis, that help to validate and score facts. To reduce variance, Analytica recursively synthesizes these grounded leaves using robust linear models that average out stochastic noise with superior efficiency, scalability, and enable interactive "what-if" scenario analysis. Our theoretical and empirical results on economic, financial, and political forecasting tasks show that Analytica improves 15.84% accuracy on average over diverse base models, achieving 71.06% accuracy with the lowest variance of 6.02% when working with a Deep Research grounder. Our Jupyter Notebook grounder shows strong cost-effectiveness that achieves a close 70.11% accuracy with 90.35% less cost and 52.85% less time. Analytica also exhibits highly noise-resilient and stable performance growth as the analysis depth increases, with a near-linear time complexity, as well as good adaptivity to open-weight LLMs and scientific domains.
This project introduces the CRISTAL Method (Coherent Reliable Intentional Synthesis of Truthful Analysis Logic), a neurosymbolic framework for automating complex analysis workflows, with fundamental investment analysis as a primary use case. This domain poses major challenges: high structural uncertainty, noisy and subjective data, tight attention budgets, and the need for justified, reproducible decisions. Human analysts often struggle in this domain due to cognitive biases and limitations, suggesting significant value in automation. But while LLM-based agents have been proposed as analytical aids, their limitations -- poor numerical reasoning, unawareness of uncertainty, and lack of reproducibility -- hinder their effectiveness in this context. CRISTAL addresses these gaps through a principled blend of statistical model synthesis, continuous learning, and active learning. Starting from a natural-language prior knowledge curriculum, CRISTAL builds a dynamic, interpretable probabilistic program that enables full Bayesian inference, including uncertainty quantification and budget-aware data acquisition. CRISTAL continually refines its world model during analysis, leveraging LLMs for code synthesis and learning. We validate CRISTAL on a novel benchmark of synthetic equities with rich financial and textual data. On a company classification task, CRISTAL achieves Bayes-optimal accuracy with just 5 examples and a 5-second budget, outperforming state-of-the-art LLMs that plateau around 40% accuracy even with order-of-magnitude more input data and compute.
Rafael Kaufmann, Felix Neubürger, Michael Walters +2
Enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language model (LLM) agents requires effective orchestration of diverse expert models and tools. However, existing frameworks typically call APIs, based on coarse-grained matching between tasks and the functions of expert models or tools, while overlooking critical factors such as performance variability and cost efficiency among functionally similar alternatives. To address this, we propose Agora, a framework that uses a confidence-calibrated auction to dynamically allocate tasks to expert models and tools. By treating reasoning steps as tradeable items, Agora bases allocation on calibrated competence rather than raw confidence. Across five main benchmarks, Agora improves or remains competitive with single-model, routing, and cascade baselines under matched candidate pools.
Large reasoning models improve performance by generating extended chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning, but this behavior becomes inefficient when applied to LLM agents. Current LLM agents often generate verbose textual reasoning at every decision step and allocate reasoning effort nearly uniformly across turns, leading to substantial inefficiency in multi-turn agentic trajectories. We propose Adaptive Latent Agentic Reasoning (ALAR), a dual-mode framework that uses compact latent reasoning for routine turns and selectively escalates to explicit chain-of-thought when deeper deliberation is needed. ALAR learns latent reasoning by using the agent's actions as supervision anchors and is further optimized to use latent reasoning when it is sufficient for task success and reserve explicit CoT for harder decisions. Experiments on agentic search and tool-use benchmarks show that ALAR maintains comparable or better task accuracy while substantially reducing generated tokens by up to 43.6% in search and 84.6% in tool use. These results demonstrate that ALAR improves the accuracy-efficiency trade-off of LLM agents by reducing unnecessary textual reasoning while preserving explicit deliberation for harder decision steps.