cs.LGApr 27, 2026

Hindsight Preference Optimization for Financial Time Series Advisory

Authors: Yanwei CuiGuanghui WangXing ZhangPeiyang HeZiyuan LiBing ZhuWei QiuXusheng Wang+2 more

Organizations: 1AWS Generative AI Innovation Center · 2HSBC Holdings Plc. HSBC Technology Center China

Abstract

Time series models predict numbers; decision-makers need advisory -- directional signals with reasoning, actionable suggestions, and risk management. Training language models for such predictive advisory faces a fundamental challenge: quality depends on outcomes unknown at prediction time. We bridge two ideas from reinforcement learning -- using information unavailable during execution to retrospectively generate training signal, and preference alignment -- and propose Hindsight Preference Optimization: observed outcomes let an LLM judge rank candidate advisories on dimensions that scalar metrics cannot capture, producing preference pairs for DPO without human annotation. We apply this to Vision-Language-Model-based predictive advisories on S&P 500 equity time series, demonstrated by a 4B model outperforming its 235B teacher on both accuracy and advisory quality.

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