Uncertainty-Aware Trip Purpose Inference from GPS Trajectories via POI Semantic Zones and Pareto Calibration

Tourist mobility poses a distinct challenge for urban transportation planning. Unlike resident commuting, tourist travel is largely non-routine, attraction driven, and highly sensitive to trip purpose, travel season, and trip member composition. Existing approaches either measure aggregate tourist spatial patterns without generating individual schedules, or synthesize mobility without tourist specific structure such as trip duration conditioning, month varying attraction demand, and household co-travel rules. To address these challenges, we propose a four stage simulation framework combining month conditioned spatial priors derived from GPS and survey data, trip extent prediction from tourist demographics, distance feasible ward sequence assignment, and LLM-based activity chain generation under household and spatial constraints. GPS data are used only in privacy preserving aggregated form as month conditioned spatial priors, with no individual traces retained or exposed. Experiments on tourism in Tokyo demonstrate that the GPS based tourist cohort extraction recovers spatial visitation signatures consistent with survey references, and our framework produces demographically aligned synthetic schedules whose ward-level visitation shares align closely with both survey distributions and staypoint derived monthly visitation patterns. The results demonstrate the framework's effectiveness as a geographically grounded, demographically aware approach to tourist mobility modeling.

Urban trajectories play a crucial role in modeling urban dynamics and supporting various smart city applications. However, privacy concerns restrict access to large-scale and high-quality trajectory datasets. Trajectory generation provides a promising alternative by synthesizing realistic data to mitigate privacy risks. However, existing methods fail to explicitly capture travel patterns and can only generate fixed-length trajectories under a single condition. To address these limitations, we propose \textbf{HTP}, which \textbf{H}ierarchically generates \textbf{T}ravel patterns first and then generates GPS \textbf{P}oints by using large language models (LLMs), rather than directly generating GPS points. We first design a trajectory-specific residual quantization variational autoencoder (RQ-VAE) that quantizes micro-level GPS trajectories into compact, macro-level travel pattern tokens in a coarse-to-fine manner. These tokens capture rich segment spatial irregularities, such as point density variations caused by traffic conditions. Then, we extend the LLM vocabulary with travel pattern tokens to align trajectory representations with the LLM input, and apply supervised fine-tuning (SFT) to align the LLM with the trajectory generation task, enabling generation of travel pattern sequences under various conditions. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets show that HTP outperforms the strongest baseline by an average of 29.78% in terms of generation quality. Our code is available at https://github.com/slzhou-xy/HTP.

Predicting a user's next Point-of-Interest (POI) based on their historical check-in records is a fundamental task in location-based services. While recent methods incorporating large language models have shown strong reasoning capabilities and promising results, they typically formulate the prediction task as a one-step trajectory-to-location mapping problem, making predictions prone to shallow trajectory correlations and historical frequency bias. We argue that users rarely choose locations directly and instead, they usually first form a traveling intention and then accordingly select specific POIs. Motivated by this insight, we propose IntentPOI, a two-stage intention-guided reasoning framework. In the thinking stage, we infer users' intermediate intentions by incorporating historical mobility patterns, similar peer behaviors, and the temporal contexts. In the acting stage, we first construct a compact candidate pool, and then perform intention-guided reasoning to identify locations that best align with the inferred intention. By explicitly decoupling intention inference from location prediction, IntentPOI transforms the next POI prediction from direct trajectory matching into intention-guided reasoning. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate that IntentPOI consistently outperforms eleven state-of-the-art baselines.