In classification tasks, models may rely on confounding variables to achieve strong in-distribution performance, capturing spurious features that fail under distribution shift. This shortcut behavior leads to substantial degradation in out-of-distribution settings. Task arithmetic offers a potential solution by removing unwanted signals via subtraction of secondary model updates, but it typically requires full fine-tuning, which is computationally expensive. Prompt tuning provides a parameter-efficient alternative by adapting models through a small set of trainable virtual tokens. Task arithmetic on the resulting prompts presents an appealing alternative to operations on entire models, but the extent to which this approach can limit reliance on spurious features remains to be established. In this work, we study whether composing soft prompts through task arithmetic improves robustness to confounding shifts. We propose Hybrid Prompt Arithmetic (HyPA), which combines task prompts with linearized confounder prompts to counteract spurious correlations. Across multiple benchmarks, HyPA consistently improves the robustness-performance trade-off relative to prompt-arithmetic baselines under distribution shift. We further analyze how HyPA affects hidden representations and find evidence consistent with it mitigating confounding either by reducing the influence of confounder signals on predictions or by suppressing them in the representation. These results establish HyPA as a parameter-efficient and promising approach for improving robustness under confounding shifts in the evaluated setting.
Foundation models are now used in settings where the prompts they receive can change quickly. Users change, topics change, policies change, and the model may suddenly face a kind of request that was rare in the calibration data. This makes fixed calibration risky. Conformal prediction and conformal risk control give model-agnostic ways to control error, but they work best when the calibration data still look like the future data. This paper develops PromptShift CRC, a drift-aware conformal risk control method for foundation-model outputs under prompt and domain shift. The method embeds prompts and responses, measures how far the current prompt stream has moved from the calibration pool, gives more weight to relevant or recent calibration examples, and updates the risk level online after observed violations. It reports three practical diagnostics: realized risk error, prompt drift, and effective calibration size. We give conditions under which the method controls risk up to terms for distribution mismatch and weighted quantile uncertainty. In a synthetic prompt-shift benchmark, static conformal risk control fails sharply after drift, while PromptShift-CRC gives the best coverage among the adaptive baselines considered. We then evaluate the same calibration layer on public benchmark derived streams for question answering, toxicity, summarization factuality, and long-context hallucination risk
Recent work has promoted task-aware layer pruning as a way to improve model performance on particular tasks, as shown by TALE. In this paper, we investigate when such improvements occur and why. We show first that, across controlled polynomial regression tasks and large language models, such pruning yields no benefit on in-distribution (ID) data but consistently improves out-of-distribution (OOD) accuracy. We further show empirically that OOD inputs induce layerwise norm and pairwise-distance profiles that deviate from the corresponding ID profiles. This leads to a geometric explanation of task-aware pruning: each task induces a task-adapted geometry, characterized empirically by the representation profiles observed on ID inputs. OOD inputs can introduce a distorted version of the task-adapted geometry. Task-aware pruning identifies layers that create or amplify this distortion; by removing them, it shifts OOD representational norms and pairwise distances toward those observed on the adapted distribution. This realigns OOD inputs with the model's task-adapted geometry and improves performance. We provide causal evidence through controlled distribution shifts and residual-scaling interventions, and demonstrate consistent behavior across model scales.
Models that are indistinguishable on in-distribution data can behave very differently under distribution shift. We introduce Perturb-and-Correct (P&C), a post-hoc method for constructing epistemically diverse predictors from a single pretrained network. P&C applies random hidden layer perturbations with a least-squares correction in the subsequent affine layer, producing predictors that agree on calibration data while remaining free to disagree away from it. We analyze this mechanism through the post-correction residual and its first-order sensitivity: the residual is controlled near the calibration distribution by a leverage term, while corrected sensitivity grows as inputs deviate from the calibration geometry. Empirically, P&C achieves a strong ID/OOD tradeoff across MuJoCo dynamics prediction and CIFAR-10 OOD detection, matching or outperforming standard post-hoc baselines while requiring only a single pretrained model. Our findings highlight the potential in further exploiting overparameterization as a strength of deep learning models.