Conformal Risk Control

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Valid Stopping in Adaptive Generator-Verifier Loops
Oct 5, 2026Mahmoud Hegazy, Michael I. Jordan, Aymeric DieuleveutFDR Control E-Values
CMAP, École polytechnique, IP Paris, France · Inria Paris, France · EECS, UC Berkeley, USA
G-CARB: Graph-Localized Conformal Agent Risk Budget for Compositional Harm
Oct 4, 2026Zijun Yu, Yu Gu, Vahid Partovi Nia +1AI Agent Safety Conformal Risk Control
Department of Mathematics and Statistics McGill University Montréal, QC, Canada · Department of Mathematics and Industrial Engineering Polytechnique de Montréal Montréal, QC, Canada
ReCIRC: Rectified Conformal Risk Control
Sep 29, 2026Bruno Marcondes e Resende, Helton Graziadei, Thiago Rodrigo Ramos +1Conformal Prediction Conformal Risk Control
Department of Statistics, Federal University of São Carlos
Adaptive Safety Filtering for Frozen ACC Policies via Conformal Residual Calibration
Sep 28, 2026Zhiruo Zhou, Rigaudiere Z. Li, Chen Xiwen +3Safety-Critical Control Autonomous Driving Safety Evaluation
Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, China · Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China · Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
Faster Block-Diffusion Serving with Distribution-Free Risk Guarantees
Sep 27, 2026Jungseob Lee, Dongyub Jude Lee, Chanjun Park +2Diffusion Language Model Inference LLM Inference Acceleration
Korea University · Zoom Communications · Soongsil University +1
Certified Against Which Oracle? Execution Labels Set the Reported Risk of Conformal Abstention for Text-to-SQL
Sep 22, 2026Jiamiao Liu, Dewen Qiao, Yu Zhang +1Probability Calibration Benchmark Auditing
Department of Information, Xinqiao Hospital Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University) Chongqing 400037, China
Occupancy-based Quantile Risk Control
Sep 2, 2026Zihao Shi, Huajun Xi, Bingyi Jing +1Conformal Risk Control Statistical Learning Theory
Southern University of Science and Technology · Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence · The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen +1
Safety Screening for Voltage Control in Active Distribution Grids via Distributionally Robust Conformal Screening
Aug 31, 2026Sarra Bouchkati, Petros Ellinas, Adriana Geisler +4Safety-Critical Control Conformal Risk Control
IAEW at RWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany · Department of Wind and Energy Systems, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark
Conformal Risk-Averse Decision Making with Optimized Certainty Equivalent Risk Control
Aug 28, 2026Amirmohammad Farzaneh, Osvaldo SimeoneDecision-Making under Uncertainty Conformal Risk Control
Institute for Intelligent Networked Systems (INSI), Northeastern University London, London, UK
TRACE-CRC: Trajectory-Adaptive Conformal Risk Control for Multi-Step Channel State Information Prediction
Aug 27, 2026Kiarash Rezaei, Mehdi Sattari, Javad Aliakbari +3Uncertainty Quantification Conformal Prediction
Department of Electrical Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden
Multi-Expert Conformal Risk Control for Pairwise LLM Judging in Open-Ended Dialogue
Aug 27, 2026Ming Cheng, Yusheng Dai, Qiuhong Ke +2LLM-as-a-Judge Conformal Risk Control
Monash University
Bound-Aware Per-Organ Recall Risk Control for Multi-Organ CT Segmentation under Clinical Domain Shift
Aug 18, 2026Souraj Adhikary, Negar Chabi, Andre MastmeyerMedical Image Segmentation Medical Image Analysis
Department of Engineering Sciences, Jade Hochschule Wilhelmshaven, Germany
TRIAGE: Risk-Controlled Pseudo-Label Admission for Annotation-Efficient Semi-Supervised Retinal OCT Classification
Aug 14, 2026Md Ashraful Hossen Akash, Shyla Afroge, Abdullah Al Mamun +2Medical Image Classification Pseudo-Labeling
Department of Computer Science & Engineering, Rajshahi University of Engineering & Technology, Rajshahi-6204, Bangladesh · Elite Research Lab LLC, New York, USA · Faculty of Information Science and Technology, Multimedia University, Melaka, Malaysia +1
Conformal risk control for model-form uncertainty in parametric non-intrusive reduced-order models
Aug 4, 2026Edgar Jaber, Rémy Vallot, Thibault Dairay +1Uncertainty Quantification PDE Surrogate Modeling
CB, ENS Paris Saclay · Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, ENS Paris-Saclay, Centre Borelli, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91190, France · CB, Michelin +3
Hierarchical Group-Conditional Conformal Risk Control for Selective Prediction in Language Models
Jul 27, 2026Murilo Salem, Luísa Böhm, Daniel Pontes +1Selective Prediction Group-Conditional Conformal Prediction
CDTec (Centro de Desenvolvimento Tecnológico) Universidade Federal de Pelotas Pelotas, RS, Brasil
Beyond Aggregate Risk: Role-Stratified Conformal Risk Control for LLM Tool Calls
Jul 27, 2026Md Ashikur Rahman, Md Arifur Rahman, Niamul Hassan Samin +4Conformal Risk Control LLM Agent Safety
When Can Conformal Risk Control Certify LLM Outputs? Bounds, Impossibility, and Adaptation for Structured Generation
Jun 27, 2026Varun KotteConformal Prediction LLM Reliability
Independent Researcher
Conformal Recovery-Deadline Certificates for Runtime Assurance of Adapting Controllers
Jun 24, 2026Alireza ShojaeiSafety-Critical Control Conformal Prediction
Myers-Lawson School of Construction, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USA
When Calibration Fails the Vulnerable Hospital: Federated Conformal Risk Control via Risk-Curve Shrinkage
Jun 18, 2026Nafis Fuad ShahidConformal Prediction Conformal Risk Control
Dhaka, Bangladesh
ToolChain-CRC: Conformal Risk Control for Agentic AI Under Retrieval and Tool-Use Drift
Jun 16, 2026Jeffery Opoku, David BanaheneAI Agent Reliability Distribution Shift
The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Edinburg, TX, USA · Florida International University, Miami, FL, USA
PromptShift-CRC: Drift-Aware Conformal Risk Control for Foundation Models Under Prompt and Domain Shift
Jun 14, 2026Jeffery Opoku, David BanaheneConformal Prediction Language Model Calibration
The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Edinburg, TX, USA · Florida International University, Miami, FL, USA
CARE: A Conformal Safety Layer for Medical Summarization
Jun 8, 2026Suhana Bedi, Bridget Lin, Anson Y. Zhou +5Text Summarization Conformal Risk Control
Department of Biomedical Data Science, Stanford University · Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University · Department of Computer Science, Stanford University +2
A Joint Finite-Sample Certificate for Adaptive Selective Conformal Risk Control
Jun 7, 2026Xiaoli Yu, Jiamiao LiuSelective Prediction Conformal Risk Control
School of Cyber Security and Information Law Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications Chongqing 400065, China · Department of Information, Xinqiao Hospital Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University) Chongqing 400037, China
Conformal Risk Sharing: Certified Cost Allocation with Participation Guarantees
Jun 4, 2026Ieva KazlauskaiteConformal Risk Control
Department of Statistics, London School of Economics and Political Science, United Kingdom
Distribution-Free Risk-Aware Planning and Control Under Uncertainty Using Conformal Spectral Risk Control
Jun 2, 2026Junsik Eom, Tulga ErsalModel Predictive Control Conformal Risk Control
Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109
Adversarially Robust Control of Conditional Value-at-Risk via Rockafellar-Uryasev Conformal Inference
May 29, 2026Catherine Chen, Jingyan Shen, Zhun Deng +1Conformal Risk Control Conditional Value-at-Risk
Institute for Computational and Mathematical Engineering, Stanford University · Department of Computer Science, New York University · Department of Computer Science, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill +1
BOKBO (Best of K Bad Options): Calibrated Abstention for VLA Policies
May 28, 2026Anya Singh, Cabrel Happi, Jai Relan +2Selective Prediction Conformal Prediction
Relling Systems
Conformal Certification of Reasoning Trace Prefixes
May 28, 2026Matt Y. Cheung, Ashok Veeraraghavan, Hanjie Chen +1Conformal Prediction Language Model Calibration
Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering, Rice University · Department of Computer Science, Rice University
Conf-Gen: Conformal Uncertainty Quantification for Generative Models
May 27, 2026Gabriel Loaiza-Ganem, Kevin Zhang, Wei Cui +2Uncertainty Quantification Conformal Prediction
Layer 6 AI, Toronto, Canada
SAFEVPR: Patch-Based Conformal Verification for Safe Cross-Condition Sequence Visual Place Recognition
May 27, 2026Ha Sier, Jiaqiang Zhang, Zhuo Zou +2Distribution Shift Visual Place Recognition
Turku Intelligent Embedded and Robotic Systems (TIERS) Lab, University of Turku, Turku, Finland · School of Information Science and Technology, Fudan University, Shanghai, China

Oct 5, 2026J/K move · Enter open · S save

Valid Stopping in Adaptive Generator-Verifier Loops

Mahmoud Hegazy, Michael I. Jordan, Aymeric Dieuleveut

CMAP, École polytechnique, IP Paris, France · Inria Paris, France · EECS, UC Berkeley, USA

FDR Control E-Values Optimal Stopping Conformal Risk Control Sequential Hypothesis Testing

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Numerous agentic workflows are based on a generator-verifier loop: a generator proposes candidates, a cheap verifier scores them, and the workflow terminates when a proposal is verified as good enough. The verifier typically proxies a more costly ground-truth oracle, and as the generator searches adaptively against it, false acceptances may accumulate. Proposals can pass the proxy but fail under the costlier ground-truth check. We study when to stop these loops while controlling the false discovery rate of the accepted proposals. Our construction introduces tools of independent interest in distribution-free statistical testing and conformal risk control, including analysis of

e

-values constructed through index betting and a novel conformal risk control procedure for non-monotone losses. We validate the approach in synthetic settings and on a protein-design benchmark.