A Physics-Aware Framework for Short-Term GPU Power Forecasting of AI Data Centers

The emerging of large language models (LLMs) has posed significant challenges to the thermal management of data center. Intense GPU computation for LLMs results in localized hotspots. Moreover, spiking thermal loads during training and inference bursts make real-time cooling response more difficult to predict and control. Thermal-aware capacity planning of data center requires massive expensive high-fidelity CFD simulations. AI models can perform real-time prediction for unseen designs. However, existing works either have large prediction error, or have over-simplified assumptions for data center operations. This work presents an AI-driven framework that can perform thermal-aware capacity planning for a real-world data center in seconds. The embedded AI model learns from numerous key parameters (rack power, server power, server placement, HVAC settings etc.), and provides temperature prediction within milliseconds. This AI model is tested against high-fidelity CFD simulations, and results show that for unseen data center designs, model can achieve high accuracy with 10000X speedup. Driven by the AI model, the authors design the thermal-aware capacity planning framework. This framework can help data center designers and operators instantaneously optimize both workload distribution and HVAC cooling efficiency.

Large language model (LLM) training is among the fastest-growing sources of electricity demand in modern data centers, and power availability is a primary bottleneck to continued AI infrastructure growth. Making the power consumption of these workloads flexible could unlock additional power for AI growth, limit increases in electricity prices, and improve the utilization of existing grid infrastructure. However, to realize this flexibility, we must first understand how the performance of training workloads changes when GPU power is reduced. This paper presents the first systematic characterization of job power elasticity (the sensitivity of throughput to power reductions) in LLM training. To quantify elasticity, we introduce the Power Flexibility Index (PFI), a normalized metric that quantifies the performance cost of power reductions and provides a control primitive for SLA-aware power flexibility. We collect data from 131 LLM training runs on H200 (plus 24 H200 validation runs and 34 matched H100 runs), including both dense and mixture-of-experts models, pretraining and fine-tuning tasks, and up to 32 GPUs. We find that LLM training jobs exhibit substantial but variable power elasticity, and we identify telemetry signals that predict PFI at runtime. Finally, we demonstrate that PFI-aware power allocation maximizes total tokens/second throughput under power constraints. Under a 30% power reduction, PFI-aware power allocation recovers ~1.5k tokens/s per job, 63% of the performance gap between an equal-weight allocation and an oracle with perfect information. Our results establish power elasticity as a measurable property of training jobs and provide a foundation for power-aware, grid-responsive AI infrastructure.

Large Language Model (LLM) inference workloads are a rapidly growing contributor to data center energy consumption. Optimizing these deployments requires matching specific LLMs to the most efficient GPUs, but operators currently lack the tools to do so without exhaustively profiling each combination. While some predictive models exist, they still require profiling data and struggle to generalize to hardware unseen during training. To address this, we introduce WattGPU, featuring two predictive models for mean GPU power draw and Inter-Token Latency (ITL). Our approach leverages only publicly available LLM metadata and GPU specifications, eliminating the need for hardware access or profiling while enabling generalization to unseen NVIDIA server-grade GPUs and LLMs. We evaluate our models using rigorous leave-one-GPU-out and leave-one-LLM-out cross-validation on a dataset of 42 open-source LLMs (0.1B--27B parameters) and 8 GPUs under both offline and server scenarios. The mean power draw model achieves a median absolute percentage error of $\leq3.4\%$ for offline and $\leq13.5\%$ for server scenarios on unseen GPUs, while the latency model achieves $\leq8.5\%$ in server mode, both maintaining strong GPU ranking correlations for server scenarios (Kendall $τ\geq0.76$). Compared to standard physically grounded baselines -- Load-Scaled Thermal Design Power (TDP) for power draw and roofline for latency -- our models reduce median absolute percentage error by approximately 4$\times$ on unseen LLM-GPU combinations for server scenarios or approximately 2$\times$ for completely unseen GPUs. WattGPU's data and code are publicly available at https://github.com/maufadel/wattgpu.