Learning Time-Inhomogeneous Markov Dynamics in Financial Time Series via Neural Parameterization

We propose a spectral learning method for stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems represented with embedded latent transfer operators in deep feature spaces. We instantiate the method as Deep Spectral Encoder (DSE), an operator-based latent state-space model in which a time-invariant neural encoder implements learnable nonlinear feature maps from observations, and these features define Markovian latent states whose temporal evolution and observation mapping are described by the transfer and observation operators, respectively. Functional canonical correlation analysis in a learnable Galerkin-projected feature space provides state coordinates from past and future observations, and the two linear operators are estimated on the state coordinates as ridge-regularized closed-form solutions that coincide with Galerkin projections of the associated covariance operators. On this representation, we generalize sequential Bayesian filtering and Koopman spectral mode decomposition in feature space. Experiments on several scenarios show stable and superior performance with sequential Bayesian filtering and dynamic mode decomposition baselines even under noise and partial observability.

Neural operators excel as deterministic surrogates, but inevitably collapse to the conditional mean when applied to stochastic PDEs, discarding the variance and tail structure upon which uncertainty quantification depends. Recovering this structure typically requires Monte Carlo rollouts or grafted generative models, both of which surrender the one-shot efficiency and resolution invariance that define the operator paradigm. To resolve this, we draw on the Doob-Meyer theorem, which establishes that any semimartingale fundamentally decomposes into a predictable drift and an unpredictable, zero-mean martingale. Translating this theorem into an architectural prior, we introduce the Martingale Neural Operator (MNO). MNO maps an initial condition directly to the conditional mean and covariance of the terminal law, parameterized by a drift-like mean and a low-rank factor $B_φ$ with $B_φ^\top B_φ$ positive semi-definite by construction. For our experiments, we use a Gaussian residual instantiation. Across 1D SPDEs, rough volatility, and 2D operator tasks, MNO reduces Wasserstein distance by up to $120\times$ on $φ^4$ field theory and $68\times$ on stochastic Burgers, evaluating $\sim 3\times$ faster than a conditional diffusion baseline at matched wall-clock training budgets. On 2D tasks, MNO is comparable to FNO on zero-shot resolution transfer and turbulent flow, while quasi-deterministic systems such as Gray-Scott remain a failure mode.

Neural operators provide fast surrogate models for time-dependent partial differential equations, but their standard autoregressive use usually assumes that the instantaneous field $u(t,\cdot)$ is a complete state. This assumption fails for delay equations, distributed-memory systems, and other non-Markovian dynamics: two trajectories may agree at time $t$ and nevertheless have different futures because their histories differ. We introduce the History-Space Fourier Neural Operator (HS-FNO), a neural operator for delay and memory-driven PDEs formulated on the lifted state $u_t(θ,x)=u(t+θ,x)$, $θ\in[-τ,0]$. The key computational step is to decompose one history-state update into a learned predictor for the newly exposed future slice and an exact shift-append transport for the portion of the history window already known from the previous state. This avoids learning deterministic history coordinates, reduces the learned output dimension, and enforces the natural discrete history update. We test HS-FNO on five benchmark families covering delayed reaction--diffusion, spatial epidemiology, nonlocal neural-field dynamics, delayed waves, and distributed-memory closures. Across ten random seeds, HS-FNO attains the lowest aggregate one-step, history-space, and rollout errors among the principal baselines. The largest gain occurs in autoregressive prediction, where aggregate rollout error decreases from $0.241$, $0.188$, and $0.185$ for current-state, lag-stack, and unconstrained history-to-history operators, respectively, to $0.094$. The same model uses fewer parameters than unconstrained history prediction. These results indicate that enforcing the discrete shift structure of history-state evolution is an effective inductive bias for non-Markovian PDE surrogate modeling.