Executable World Models for ARC-AGI-3 in the Era of Coding Agents

ARC-AGI-3 turns abstraction into an interactive problem of skill acquisition. A player must infer an unfamiliar game's rules, hidden state, and goal while maintaining action efficiency because every move counts. We formalize these environments as parameterized rendered deterministic Moore machines and introduce Tycho, a coding-agent system that constructs and uses game-specific models during interaction. Tycho separates actionable observations from intermediate animation, level-completion, and game-over frames. From this structured history, an agent can model, test, plan with, repair, or bypass a free-form executable hypothesis. In one matched public-set run per policy, we compare four orchestration policies on all 25 public games using Claude Opus 4.8 under matched inference budgets. Actor-requested delegation to a model builder obtains the highest observed mean Relative Human Action Efficiency (RHAE), 88.49. With this selected policy, GPT-5.6 Sol and Opus 5 both reach 100.00 RHAE and complete all 183 levels. Their game-balanced first-run human-replay midranks are 98.5 and 100.0. Opus 5 uses 61% fewer scored actions than the aggregate official human baselines. Automatic repair after verification failures produces models that reproduce observed transitions much more accurately, yet reaches only 83.07 RHAE. Transition match indicates whether a simulator reproduces observed dynamics, not whether it has identified the objective or improves the next action. Strong play also requires deciding when to construct, repair, use, or bypass a model. We call this joint problem active abstraction: generating a testable model from costly interaction and deciding when acquiring or using it is worth its cost.

We systematically investigate all 25 public ARC-AGI-3 games and find that every one is reachable through non-intelligent strategies: 10 in a single blind step, 5 after one probing action, 1 via repeated ACTION1 presses, 1 via diverse exploration, and 8 via single repeated actions with sufficient budget (50-200 steps). A library-level null-coordinate vulnerability additionally bypasses 18 games in 1 step. This benchmark critique implies the public evaluation set cannot discriminate intelligent exploration from trivial heuristics - the private 55-game evaluation is the only genuine intelligence test. Against this backdrop, we present AERA (Adaptive Epistemic Reasoning Agent), a three-phase (EXPLORE / VERIFY / PLAN) agent achieving RHAE=0.2116 (4/25 solved) on these 25 games with Qwen2.5-0.5B, while random and no-explore baselines score 0.0000. We formalise AERA through a Speed--Depth trade-off framework: under a convexity assumption (proved for a class of environments in the Appendix), RHAE's quadratic form emerges as a second-order penalty for deviating from the Pareto frontier between action efficiency and information gain. Contributions: (i) a benchmark validity analysis showing that current interactive reasoning benchmarks fail to measure the exploration they claim to require, and (ii) the EXPLORE-before-PLAN framework and model-capability x exploration interaction. The linked code track entry achieves RHAE=0.30 on the full 55-game private evaluation. Code: CC0.

World modeling is an unsettled field: architectures, training objectives, and state representations interact in complex ways, and no single recipe dominates across environments. This makes it an ideal testbed for AI coding agents acting as autonomous researchers--a setting in which the improvement direction is not specified in advance, unlike the engineering-to-spec tasks that dominate current agent benchmarks. We introduce AutoWorldModel-Bench, a closed-loop benchmark in which frontier coding agents autonomously improve a provided world-model starter under a fixed compute budget. The benchmark spans eight game environments under a unified structured-state representation--ground-truth entity state extracted from each game and consumed through a shared tensor format--which isolates dynamics modeling from perception and enables minutes-per-run iteration. Across 64 sessions, Codex-5.4 and Claude Opus 4.6 improve their starter on 63; in 91% of sessions the winning edit is a non-trivial research-style modification--a new objective, representation, rollout procedure, or architectural change--rather than a hyperparameter tweak. Our benchmark offers a setting in which frontier coding agents can be evaluated on open-ended research rather than engineering-to-spec problems.