A Review of Large Language Models for Stock Price Forecasting from a Hedge-Fund Perspective

Large Language Models (LLMs) are evolving into autonomous trading agents, yet existing benchmarks often overlook the interplay between architectural reasoning and strategy consistency. We propose Strat-LLM, a framework grounded in Stratified Strategy Alignment. Operating in a live-forward setting throughout 2025, it integrates heterogeneous data including sequential prices, real-time news, and annual reports to eliminate look-ahead bias. Extensive stress tests on A-share and U.S. markets reveal: (1) reasoning-heavy models achieve peak utility in Free Mode via internal logic, whereas standard models require Strict Mode as a vital risk anchor; (2) alignment utility is regime-dependent, with Free and Guided modes capturing momentum in uptrending markets, while Strict Mode mitigates drawdowns in downtrends; (3) mid-scale models (35B) show optimal fidelity under strict constraints, whereas ultra-large models (122B) suffer an alignment tax under rigid rules but gain a performance premium in Guided Mode; (4) standard LLMs often fall into a high win-rate trap, optimizing for small gains at the expense of total returns, which can only be mitigated through deep reasoning or strict external guardrails. Project details are available at https://Strat-LLM.github.io.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in financial contexts, raising critical concerns about reliability, alignment, and susceptibility to adversarial manipulation. While prior finance-related benchmarks assess LLMs' capabilities in stock trading, they are often restricted to small sample and fail to demonstrate LLM susceptibility to context with potential human bias. We introduce Fin-Bias (financial herding under long and uncertain financial context), a benchmark for evaluating LLM investment decision-making when faced with uncertainty and possible human-biased opinions. Fin-Bias includes 8868 long firm-specific analyst reports, including firm aspects summarized and analyzed by sophisticated analysts with investment ratings (Bullish/Neutral/Bearish) spanning from various industries. We present large language models with firm analyst reports with/without analyst investment ratings and even with 'fake' rating, to get investment ratings generated by LLMs. Our results reveal that LLMs tend to herd the explicit bias in context. We also develop a method to detect potential human opinions, which can encourage LLMs to think independently, some models even exceed human performance in predicting future stock return.

This paper presents an empirical comparison of lexicon-based and Large Language Model (LLM)-based sentiment analysis for extracting market-relevant signals from social media discourse in highly volatile equity markets. Using Reddit data from r/WallStreetBets and focusing on meme stocks (GME, AMC, NOK), we construct time-aligned sentiment indicators and evaluate their relationship with market returns, with particular attention to extreme positive return events in the upper tail of the return distribution. The LLM-based approach generates multidimensional sentiment representations capturing emotional polarity, bullishness, sarcasm likelihood, and topical relevance, whereas the baseline relies on the VADER lexicon-based model. We evaluate both approaches using lead/lag correlation analysis, OLS regression, ROC-AUC-based directional classification, and a quantile-based early-warning framework. The results indicate that LLM-derived indicators provide a richer multidimensional representation and exhibit stronger asset-specific statistical structure than the lexicon-based baseline. However, their relationship with market movements remains heterogeneous across assets, suggesting that increased linguistic expressiveness does not necessarily translate into stable forecasting performance in retail-driven volatility regimes.